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jeffw ,
@jeffw@lemmy.world avatar

washingtonpost.com/…/open-convention-democrats-bi…

“How Democrats would pick a new candidate if Biden drops out, step by step”

One [possibility] is a virtual vote that would lock in a new nominee in early August, and the other is an “open” convention, a scenario the party hasn’t experienced since 1968.
A convention is open when no candidate arrives with a clear majority of delegates, so the event turns into a mini-primary in which contenders scramble to persuade delegates to vote for them…
Some states have August deadlines to get on the ballot for the general election, and early voting begins in some places in September. So party leaders probably would try to settle the nomination before the Democratic National Convention begins Aug. 19.

There are two types of Democratic delegates. Pledged delegates commit to supporting the candidate state voters chose, although a “good conscience” clause in the party’s rules gives them a bit of wiggle room.

Automatic delegates, often called superdelegates, are the party’s highest-profile leaders. They have the role because of the offices they hold (or held), and the group includes former presidents and vice presidents, Democratic governors, members of Congress and party officials. They are not pledged to any candidate and are not allowed to vote on the first ballot at the convention.

PythagreousTitties ,

Clusterfuck it is, then. Oh boy.

SpaceCowboy ,
@SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca avatar

Not really. It’ll be Harris. Biden endorsed her and already other potential Dem front-runners are endorsing her. Within in a few days it’ll be like she’s the incumbent and no one will want to run against her for the same reasons they didn’t run against Biden. Plus the additional reason that they don’t want to screw up their chances of being her VP pick.

Rayspekt ,

Dumb question. Why didn’t they just schedule the convention prior to all deadlines regardless who runs for office? Is there any benefit to meeting so late?

jeffw ,
@jeffw@lemmy.world avatar

It is before the deadlines but just barely. Typically the candidate is known before the convention, so you already have enough signatures to get on the ballot in every state

Zaktor ,

It wasn’t when they scheduled it. It was after Ohio’s deadline. And major parties don’t need signatures to put forward candidates.

jeffw ,
@jeffw@lemmy.world avatar

Not in a general, no. They do in a primary though. In this case, you’re right, the candidate would get on the ballot by the delegates voting

cerement ,
@cerement@slrpnk.net avatar

a scenario the party hasn’t experienced since 1968

because the 1968 Democratic Convention went swimmingly – oh, they’re also holding this year’s convention in Chicago again you say? with increased police presence as well?

gAlienLifeform ,
@gAlienLifeform@lemmy.world avatar

Well, at least there isn’t anything controversial going on overseas that’s got the college kids riled up this time /s

DarkGamer ,
@DarkGamer@fedia.io avatar

This is so incredibly reckless and foolish. Democrats just handed victory to Trump because they seem incapable of party unity. There is no better candidate waiting in the wings and Biden was polling very competitively against Trump.

ralphio ,

He dropped over 2 points to Trump since the debate and I doubt more public appearances from him were gonna help especially since he already committed to another debate. He’s outside the margin of error for winning any sunbelt state and losing everywhere in the rustbelt. It’s not impossible that he would have won but seems pretty improbable.

Wxnzxn ,
@Wxnzxn@lemmy.ml avatar

It would have taken some big, unexpected developments for him to win at this stage. Especially after the failed assassination attempt invigorated and united Trump’s cult further.

SpaceCowboy ,
@SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca avatar

especially since he already committed to another debate.

It’s actually the opposite problem. There’s wasn’t going to be another debate for Biden to potentially redeem himself. Trump wasn’t going to do with another debate with him to give him that chance, why would he? He didn’t debate anyone in the primaries, because he didn’t need to. He wasn’t going to give Biden a chance to prove “it was just a bad night.”

But with Harris as the candidate, Trump has to do another debate or he’ll look weak. In the next debate Trump will look like the guy that’s too old. Which he is, just didn’t look that way next to Biden.

Stupidmanager ,

I mean, reading between the lines, something else is wrong with biden. His age wasn’t all that helpful in the current situation, and then he gets sick? If he has only Covid, then we were in for 2+ months of a foggy candidate who already had questionable levels of clarity. No, this is not reckless, this is trying to save the election from an almost assured trump win.

ShepherdPie ,

The only recklessness I see is waiting til the 11th hour to read the writing on the wall. Someone posted in a different thread that Biden even stated in 2019 that he was only going to run a single term. The party leadership has had 4 years to choose a proper successor but chose party over country instead.

baronvonj ,
@baronvonj@lemmy.world avatar

Someone posted in a different thread that Biden even stated in 2019 that he was only going to run a single term

He didn’t. He said he saw himself as a transitional candidate, but never outright said single term.

WanderingVentra ,

It seems reckless, but the people who were pushing it were party insiders and big donors like George Clooney. I am not sure if it was a good idea, but I figure they must see things we don’t.

theneverfox ,
@theneverfox@pawb.social avatar

Nope, they just have money we don’t have

SeaJ ,

Down 3% is horrible. In swing states, he is losing even worse while Democratic Senators are polling up.

baronvonj ,
@baronvonj@lemmy.world avatar

I just don’t understand this with a non-felon, non-rapist candidate. Biden and those Democratic Congressional candidates are running on the same platform.

bdonvr ,

2020 was pretty close and Biden’s image hasn’t gotten any better and clearly wasn’t going to. He was never going to win.

RememberTheApollo_ ,

If you want lockstep unity you get to be fascist, too. Just like the republicans.

The best thing about Dems and libs is their general inclusivity. We want to have everyone to have a voice and a place to exist in the government. Shared control over the direction of the country. We want to exist and have lives free of violence, prejudice and misogyny, among other things, and to be who we are. But that’s also a drawback. Every group has their special interest. That’s hard to work with. If they don’t feel that their special interest has been advanced in some way they tend to sit on their hands. Vote third party. Not vote at all. We have a LOT of people all pulling in slightly different directions at the same time.

The republicans? They really have only one simple agenda, and that’s god, guns, and fuck the liberal agenda. And they show up to vote to do just that.

BombOmOm ,
@BombOmOm@lemmy.world avatar

Would have been better if he did this last year, would have allowed for a normal primary, rather than the clustefuck that is going to happen over the next month.

Flax_vert ,

It’s

Joever

xhieron ,
@xhieron@lemmy.world avatar

Well congratulations “liberals”, bots, propagandists, defeatists. You win. If Trump had beaten Biden, it would have been Biden’s fault, along with the party. Now the party gets to share the blame with you. You lot gambled this for the rest of us. Let’s hope your bet pays off. Open your wallets and hit the pavement. If you’re a real person and you pitched a fit so this would happen, you got what you wanted. Act like it. Your lobbying won you an obligation to campaign. If you were on social media begging for Biden to quit, now you owe the time you spent here to Harris’s campaign (or whomever the fuck they nominate).

You bought it. You own it.

audiomodder ,

You must be too young to remember Clinton losing to Trump and rather than “oh this is Clinton and the party’s fault”, they blamed it all on “Bernie bros” despite there being absolutely no data to back it up.

If I’ve learned anything in my decades on this earth, it’s that the DNC will fuck everything up, and they will blame anything bad that happens on the progressive wing of the party.

SpaceCowboy ,
@SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca avatar

I hate the anti-Biden bots and bot-curious types as much as you do. But it was Biden’s decision and I doubt anything said on social media influenced that decision. There’s the debate performance, the polling data, the fact that he is actually old and isn’t going to be able to do two rallies per day for the next 100 days while also doing the job of President. Those were the real world factors that likely influenced Biden more than anything on social media.

I was all in on saying nice things about Biden and trying to downplay the age problem for the next 100 days. Whatever it takes to prevent Trump from getting back into the Whitehouse.

But Kamala Harris has a slightly better chance than Biden. I think young people value identity politics too much… but we got just over 100 days left so we can talk about that later. For now… hello fellow young people, don’t you want to be a part of history and vote for the first woman President of the US? Vote Harris!

I’ll miss the Dark Brandon memes… but now we’re pushing coconut memes? Is that what we’re doing now?

Whatever it takes to prevent Trump from getting back into the Whitehouse.

TechNerdWizard42 ,

Disliked Biden, hate Kamala. Voted for them. Kamala and anyone else, nope.

They need someone hopey and feely like a 2008 Obama. If they don’t find that, the Dems are toast. And I can’t think of any mainstream politician that could get that reaction apart from maybe AOC. But that would get just as many MAGAs on the other side out to vote and they’d still lose.

You need empowering Democrat that is neutral to the MTG loving republicans.

Maybe Newsom? But if I had to bet it will be Kamala and another woman or minority to get the double whammy and they’ll surely lose.

jvw ,

You need empowering Democrat that is neutral to the MTG loving republicans.

No, we don’t. Those people will never vote Democratic anyway, so F them.

Mobilize the base. Play to the base.

SpaceCowboy ,
@SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca avatar

Yeah it will hopefully energize the younger base… “Be a part of history and vote for the first woman President!”

But they do need to sway some independent votes too.

But if they go hard on reproductive rights hard they can sway a lot of women voters (and some men too). There are a lot of women that normally vote GOP that may vote for Harris on reproductive rights, even though they will never admit it publicly. Sure Biden would press on that too, but a woman making an argument for her rights may be more effective.

Also if the GOP starts blowing on their racist dog whistles and show their true selves, they will lose a lot of independents. Of course the GOP could show some discipline HAHAHAA, sorry couldn’t finish that sentence. There’s already Kamala Birther memes making the rounds on Facebook as we speak.

kn0wmad1c ,
@kn0wmad1c@programming.dev avatar

What happens now? Does the DNC pick a replacement or will they be holding a snap primary?

Thekingoflorda OP ,
@Thekingoflorda@lemmy.world avatar

A new canidate will be picked during the DNC on 19-22 august.

alvvayson ,

Correct.

And Kamala is the most logical choice, because there will be the least amount of legal hurdles, since she was already on the ticket.

And the Republicans already said they are going to mount legal challenges, which can easily lead to SCOTUS deciding the election. So I expect Sanders, AOC and progressives to strongly push for Kamala.

But I fully expect the DNC to push forward some corporate candidate like Bloomberg.

It’s going to be interesting.

someguy3 ,

How is it that states can decide (or whatever the correctt word is) who’s on the ballot when the party hasn’t even officially nominated a candidate? I know that political parties are separate from election institutions, but it seems very strange. And it seems very early for states to have it set in stone.

Zaktor ,

They can’t. The nominee is chosen by the party and then communicated to the states. The states do have deadlines for being on it and this year some organizational genius scheduled the convention after the earliest deadline in Ohio. Ohio has since moved that deadline back, but the structure of the law leaves room for shenanigans so the DNC is moving forward with a virtual vote before the convention.

someguy3 ,

So legally it should be fine to decide at the DNC?

Zaktor ,

Yes, with a big asterisk on the “should”. The law that pushes the deadline back may theoretically not go into effect until after the deadline is passed, and they paired it with some other campaign finance rules that are probably unconstitutional, so there’s an outside chance the whole thing gets struck down.

All that said, the Democrats won’t win Ohio for the presidential race. They want to be on the ballot to help turnout for the Democratic senator who’s running at the same time. So if they took a risk and lost, it wouldn’t be the end of the world.

alvvayson ,

I am not a lawyer, but what is clear is that each State sets its own laws. By the constitution, States are in charge of elections.

What I have heard is that Biden has to release his delegates, who are already bound to him. Many states have already had their primaries completed with the Biden/Harris ticket winning.

Sending those electors to the Convention and letting them choose someone else is going to be a grey area.

If they choose Harris, it’s pretty sound. When a president steps down, the VP becomes president, so there is definitely precedent and a legal basis.

But if Biden releases his delegates and lets them vote for anyone? That will be challenged and it will go to the supreme court. And SCOTUS is corrupt enough to find some flimsy legal excuse that helps Republicans.

So yeah, that’s what I’ve heard. But I am not an expert.

dhork ,

Mike Bloomberg? He’s older than Biden

SirDerpy ,

There are no legal hurdles. The private organization can nominate whomever they want regardless of their votes and their rules.

audiomodder ,

The legal hurdles aren’t in the nomination, they’re in monies donated directly to the Biden/Harris campaign

SirDerpy ,

The only way money is beholden to a campaign is because a major donor insisted upon it. And, no one is asking for a refund on executive and legislative influence.

MeThisGuy ,

pick me

the_crotch ,

The legal hurdles are around getting their candidate on state ballots

SirDerpy ,

Nice insight. Democratic Secretaries of State will find a way. But, Republican Secretaries of State will definitely resist.

I want to be of a mind that they made the bed to exclude third parties and now should lie in it. But, perhaps this is an opportunity to change the rules of ballot access for the better.

mosiacmango ,

You think the DNC is going to try to push out the centrist, sitting vice president of their party during a presidential election? The vice presidential that aligns with the majority of their constituents, has a huge war chest of money, and is a well know and generally liked member of the party?

The DNC are idiots, but that makes no sense at all.

timewarp ,
@timewarp@lemmy.world avatar

Serious? I haven’t even had time to see that. That is the best decision they could have made.

dhork ,

The new candidate will be picked before then, they were already planning an early roll call vote because the DNC convention is too late for some state deadlines.

hitstun ,
@hitstun@fedia.io avatar

August 7 is the deadline. The problem is my state, Ohio. By law, the Democrats must nominate someone in 17 days or be left off the ballot. It's way too fast for a special primary election.

This is certainly going to face legal challenges in red states, too. The orange one will probably run unopposed in states like Florida.

holycrap ,

My understanding is they pick a replacement

jeffw , (edited )
@jeffw@lemmy.world avatar

Anything could happen. Most likely is the elected delegates will decide at the convention (edit: when you vote for “Biden,” you are basically voting for who the delegates that will elect him will vote for, so you still elected those delegates). Redoing a primary before then would be next to impossible. Takes weeks or months to get signatures to get on the ballot, then you need time to recruit staff to work the polls, etc.

wjrii ,

Yup. I would be literally stunned if any state primary has no legal path forward for what to do if a primary candidate drops out before the convention. It could get messy, but this idea that the dems will not have a candidate in some states come November is FUD.

Broadly, when Americans vote in primaries, they are not voting directly for a candidate but kicking off a process that will ultimately send delegates to the party’s national convention. Those delegates are the ones who officially pick the nominee — and the Democrats’ convention hasn’t happened yet.

www.politico.com/news/…/what-next-biden-00170001

SpaceCowboy ,
@SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca avatar

Yeah it’s the convention where it’s made official that a person is the nominee. If he dropped out after the convention… now that would be a mess. But as it is now, the guy that was the presumptive nominee yesterday is not longer the presumptive nominee.

morphballganon ,

If the DNC of the past is any indication, they’ll ignore voters and put up the most boring, uncompelling candidate they can.

solrize ,

Alternatively: they put up the most divisive and cringeworthy candidate they can.

timewarp ,
@timewarp@lemmy.world avatar

I wanted AOC but her last few posts have been cringe. She’s divisive, but that could have worked in her favor. Prob. will be Kamala. I think they should have an open convention & let delegates decide though.

AbidanYre ,

Sorry, Trump’s already running as a Republican.

cerement ,
@cerement@slrpnk.net avatar

DNC busy trying to get Manchin and Sinema to come back to the fold

AbidanYre ,

Oh man, if they both come back it’s just a question of which one is on top of the ticket.

ShepherdPie ,

And those of us in the party who aren’t right-leaning will get blamed when they lose.

Imgonnatrythis ,

Dumb. All because of a bad night that the media turned into a storm. Real world performance metrics were actually quite good for Joe. The Republican candidate says stuff on par with a semi-comatose baboon every time a microphone is in front of him. Supporters of this are oblivious to how much seething sexism and racism lies just under the surface in the US. This was a big part of how we got into this mess in the first place and why estimates for Hillary’s success were so far off. It will be an incredible win if she pulls this off, but it’s just not going to happen.

kandoh ,

Joe was 7 points behind in Michigan.

Americans have elected a black president already, and women have held every other level of office.

Everything sounds impossible until it happens.

Imgonnatrythis ,

It doesn’t sound impossible. It makes perfect sense, except look what happened to Hillary. I work in a role where I’m exposed to rural Americans and if you talk to them it’s incredible how the subtle prejudices start to come out. Also, polls this early are notoriously off base.

dadarobot ,
@dadarobot@lemmy.sdf.org avatar

I dont think we should run a woman because everyone else is sexist. /S

SeriousMite ,

I don’t know. I think with abortion on the ballot having a woman at the top of the ticket will be a benefit.

HubertManne ,

I would rather have gone with biden but whats done is done and im fine moving ahead.

twistypencil ,

They should make Hunter Biden the VP pick, what a glorious troll that would be

tlou3please ,

I’m not American but want to be in the loop. Media here is saying Kamala Harris is the likely successor. What do people think of her? Is she liked? I assume her actual politics are more or less the same since she was VP.

morphballganon ,

She’s a former cop and former prosecutor. I haven’t seen much from her.

seth ,

Both of those are strikes against her imo, but she’ll still get my vote.

nexusband ,
@nexusband@lemmy.world avatar

Not American either, i just hope she chooses Kelly as her VP…a progressive Astronaut in politics is more important than ever.

Phenomephrene ,
@Phenomephrene@thebrainbin.org avatar

Kelly should hold on to his Senate seat for as long as possible. There is zero guarantee that Arizona would send another Democrat to replace him.

nexusband ,
@nexusband@lemmy.world avatar

Well, that’s probably a pretty good argument. I wish it would be different…

Personally, I think we need space to solve climate change faster (or rather, the effects it has on us - climate change is a pretty intricate factor of the climate itself, but we need to be better prepared for those changes and mitigate some of them), U.S. politics are very influential around the world and that pick would hopefully influence ESA and their funding more…

ralphio ,

People don’t know her tbh. She used to be kind of a poor public speaker, but seems to have solved that based on recent appearances. Not gonna lie she’s a bit strange if you’ve ever heard her speak, but I don’t think it’ll hurt her against Trump who is an all time weirdo in American politics. Importantly she’s young and fairly sharp and hasn’t been around long enough to have too many skeletons in her closet.

secret300 ,

No idea who that is…

800XL ,

So the back the blue party of law and order will vote for the cop instead of the convicted felon now.

Just like the religious moral right will vote for the actual church attending catholic rather than the guy who doesn’t go to church and doesn’t know how to hold a bible upright.

Hello_there ,

MICHIGAN is now back in play

Bonskreeskreeskree ,

Party before country. Interesting wording.

ShepherdPie ,

It’s very clear that this is how they’ve run things for quite a while now. It’s why Clinton and Biden were the nominees in the first place and why Trump won in 2016 and nearly again in 2020.

PythagreousTitties ,

“We’re in the endgame now”

Bassman1805 ,

HO-LEE SHI-TUH

Today ,

What if he stepped aside today and Harris could run as the incumbent?

AmidFuror ,

That's not really how the incumbent advantage works. Voters need to see the person as the incumbent and not want to rock the boat.

gAlienLifeform ,
@gAlienLifeform@lemmy.world avatar

I mean, this does create the obvious question - “If Biden is too old to run for President, isn’t he too old to be president? Doesn’t he care about the safety of America [blah blah Fox News talking points blah]”

I personally think it’s fine because the job of President mostly gets done by the team of staffers around the White House, but we’ll need a good answer for that question when a reporter asks it

wjrii ,

It won’t satisfy the likes of Trump or Mike Johnson, obviously, but “enough energy to be president for six months” and “enough energy to be president for six months and simultaneously run a presidential campaign capable of winning” is not a particularly difficult distinction to draw, IMHO.

Emperor ,
@Emperor@feddit.uk avatar

It would take the sting out of people not warning to vote for the first female president if there already was one.

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