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Who's winning the war in Ukraine?

The media won’t give me great answers to this question and I think this I trust this community more, thus I want to know from you. Also, I have heard reports that Russia was winning the war, if that’s true, did the west miscalculate the situation by allowing diplomacy to take a backseat and allowing Ukraine to a large plethora of military resources?

PS: I realize there are many casualties on both sides and I am not trying to downplay the suffering, but I am curious as to how it is going for Ukraine. Right now I am hearing ever louder calls of Russia winning, those have existed forever, but they seem to have grown louder now, so I was wondering what you thought about it. Also, I am somewhat concerned of allowing a dictatorship to just erase at it’s convenience a free and democratic country.

drmoose ,

I don’t think Russia has any chance of winning. The only reason Russians are still in Ukraine is because the west is too pussy to ship the real guns.

This makes you wonder whether people benefit from this or its trully a valid strategy not to bug squash the bully cause they might go mental.

Either way, the war doesn’t have to end through military or peace agreements. Russian economy seems to be ending first. As grim as that sounds but maybe that’ll get Russians caring.

Krause ,
@Krause@lemmygrad.ml avatar

Either way, the war doesn’t have to end through military or peace agreements. Russian economy seems to be ending first.

Russia is outperforming every single EU economy this year except for Spain and Portugal, Germany was thrown into a recession and is deindustrializing and household debt in America is at an all time high, you couldn’t have posted something more removed from reality than this.

MeowZedong ,
@MeowZedong@lemmygrad.ml avatar

I think you forgot to close your eyes and cover your ears before commenting.

intensely_human ,

You should make an account named after someone who thinks and contributes. Maybe FidelCatstro? KarlBarx? FriedrichJingles?

I think this Meow identity is making your brain too smooth. Nobody with that haircut should be running anything IMO

MeowZedong ,
@MeowZedong@lemmygrad.ml avatar

What a weird comment all around.

I’ll definitely keep FidelCatstro in my back pocket though.

Diva ,
@Diva@lemmy.ml avatar

Considering this is a war of attrition, “winning” such as it is doesn’t look like conscripting every man, woman and child that can hold a gun to get blown up in trenches. They should have just negotiated a year ago.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

And they were very close to doing just that until the west stepped in and told Ukraine to stop negotiating aaronmate.net/…/ukraines-top-negotiator-confirms

Diva ,
@Diva@lemmy.ml avatar

I wish it wasn’t paywalled, I remember being hopeful something might happen but then Boris showed up- people still talk about it, just not always in english.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Bojo sabotaging the negotiations was a heinous crime against humanity. Hundreds of thousands of people died as a result and millions more had their lives ruined.

FluffyPotato ,

Britain has the geopolitical relevance of the North Sentinel island and Boris can’t even control his hair not to mention a foreign nation. Even if he told Ukraine to not negotiate why would they listen?

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Because Boris is just the messenger boy for the empire.

FluffyPotato ,

But why? The US has plenty of people to deliver a message like that that would actually be believable, like if Boris told another country that the US wants this or that it just would sound like he’s lying. This whole thing sounds too convoluted and ridiculous to be true.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

I mean that’s what Ukrainian chief negotiator told us himself now, and this is what western media admits. UK has always acted as a running dog for the US, and I’m not sure why anybody would find the idea of Boris being the one to deliver the terms to Ukraine as a representative of NATO convoluted or ridiculous. Boris represents the country that’s most closely aligned in US in Europe, this makes him the natural person to go and tell Ukraine what NATO and US want from them. You seem to be making this more complicated than it is.

chemicalwonka ,
@chemicalwonka@discuss.tchncs.de avatar

the Capitalism

Subject6051 OP ,

Ohh, cmon now! Seriously? You blame this on Capitalism?

galloog1 ,

The propaganda is strong against the Western system. There is an argument to be made that the origins of this conflict are in energy finds in the Black Sea. Ukraine is uniquely positioned to take advantage of access to the European and Asian markets. Competition in these sections would threaten oligarch monopolies. These energy monopolies are granted to the oligarchs by Putin himself and this is the entire basis of power in the Russian Federation.

This is simultaneously the reason for the conflict and why the oligarchs have been lock step the entire way.

It’s this capitalism? Absolutely not.

Is it economic power? Absolutely so.

Ilovethebomb ,

Define “winning”.

Ukraine is, slowly and painfully, gaining ground, so by that measure, they are winning.

Subject6051 OP ,

Ukraine is, slowly and painfully, gaining ground, so by that measure, they are winning.

Really? I was hearing the opposite all this while. PS: Slowly and very painfully, fuck, I wish there was an end to this war and we could return to status quo!

Ilovethebomb ,

I was hearing the opposite all this while.

From where? There are multiple, reasonably reputable maps available that show the lines, and regardless of who the map makers support, they have to be accurate because of how easily they can be proven wrong if they make false claims.

Besides, much like Vietnam, or the many wars in Afghanistan, victory won’t happen on the battlefield, it will happen when the invader finally gets tired of paying the price of war.

Subject6051 OP ,

From where?

Indian media mainly, I haven’t explored out of the Indian media bubble though.

Ilovethebomb ,

Interesting. I know they’ve historically been close to Russia, I didn’t realise they still had so much support.

Waker ,

India is absolutely leaning (hard) towards Russia. They probably never bought gas/oil and fertiliser so cheap.

GammaGames ,

I watch this channel for daily updates: youtube.com/

It obviously leans pretty heavily pro-Ukrainian, but it seems to do the daily updates accurately enough from the times I’ve double checked.

Powerpoint ,

You might be stuck in an alt right algorithm.

bionicjoey ,

Or possibly a tankie one

Omega_Haxors ,

Tankie is to liberals as woke is to conservatives but y’all aren’t ready for that conversation

fruitycoder ,

Tankie seems more targeted then woke. Woke is everything left of Reagan sometimes.

Tankie is, at it’s most general, anyone supporting authoritarian measures for “left” wing reasons.

Omega_Haxors ,

As if. I seen someone call JT tankie in that famous Hasan clip.

It’s literally just “you’re to the left of me and I don’t like it”

fruitycoder ,

Jt does support statist solutions. I mean so do I so yeah he’s not a tankie to me, but for some anarchy is the only acceptable end game.

Again it’s not generally a “too left” thing, but “too authoritarian” thing.

Omega_Haxors ,

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♀️

lurch ,

From euronews news bulletins I know Ukraine has crossed the dnipro and cleared a stable bridge head to get more troops to that russian occupied side. Also they said that nuklear reactor the russians occupied, near the front, is in danger again, because it has been cut off from electricity and had to run gasoline generators to cool it.

This shows ukraine is advancing slowly.

ErC ,

Ukraine is, slowly and painfully, gaining ground

That doesn’t seem right. In 2023 they actually lost more ground than they gained. At least that was the situation until this september, but i don’t think there where significant developments in the last 2 months.

wewbull ,

The numbers are so small, it’s not an argument worth having. What is certainly true is that Russia is sending wave upon wave of men to their death against Ukrainian defences. All for very little gain. Russia lost more people in November than any month so far in this conflict, and any month during Afghanistan. The numbers are horrific. Putin has just ordered another round of drafting, and they were scraping the barrel last time.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Could you point to where Ukraine is actually gaining ground. Last I checked, Russia gained more ground than Ukraine in the past six months.

wewbull ,

South of Orikhiv: deepstatemap.live/en#9/47.5023/35.8704

South of the Dneipro River deepstatemap.live/en#9/46.6589/32.7036

South of Bakhmut deepstatemap.live/en#10/48.4939/37.9399

There’s not a lot of recent movement from either side. The Russians are dug in, and the conditions are awful. Still, Russia are losing men at horrific rates, higher than at any point upto now.

yogthos , (edited )
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

If you look at liveuamap which is a pro western source, it’s pretty clearly that Russia is on the offensive all across the front liveuamap.com

Meanwhile, NYT has a helpful chart showing territorial changes over the summer archive.ph/U3BzJ

https://lemmy.ml/pictrs/image/f90cd2ef-9577-4f03-8bf1-e1f2003805d3.png

Russian army is currently routing Ukrainians in Avdiivka as we speak, and this a large city that had population over 30 thousand before the war. This also happens to be the part of Ukraine’s only fortified line.

reuters.com/…/whats-stake-russias-assault-avdiivk…

The Russians are dug in, and the conditions are awful. Still, Russia are losing men at horrific rates, higher than at any point upto now.

That’s weird, because the only actual western source that shows any methodology puts total Russian casualties at 38 thousand, meanwhile even western sources now admit that Ukrainian casualties are now at well over a 100 thousand

en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

Oh and here’s how things are going south of Dnieper www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67565508

"The entire river crossing is under constant fire. I’ve seen boats with my comrades on board just disappear into the water after being hit, lost forever to the Dnipro river.

"We must carry everything with us - generators, fuel and food. When you’re setting up a bridgehead you need a lot of everything, but supplies weren’t planned for this area.

"We thought after we made it there the enemy would flee and then we could calmly transport everything we needed, but it didn’t turn out that way.

“When we arrived on the [eastern] bank, the enemy were waiting. Russians we managed to capture said their forces were tipped off about our landing so when we got there, they knew exactly where to find us. They threw everything at us - artillery, mortars and flame thrower systems. I thought I’d never get out.”

Seems like things along the other parts of the front are going about the same archive.ph/…/ukraine-counteroffensive-stalled-rus…

  • Seventy percent of troops in one of the brigades leading the counteroffensive, and equipped with the newest Western weapons, entered battle with no combat experience.
  • Ukraine’s setbacks on the battlefield led to rifts with the United States over how best to cut through deep Russian defenses.
  • The commander of U.S. forces in Europe couldn’t get in touch with Ukraine’s top commander for weeks in the early part of the campaign amid tension over the American’s second-guessing of battlefield decisions.
  • Each side blamed the other for mistakes or miscalculations. U.S. military officials concluded that Ukraine had fallen short in basic military tactics, including the use of ground reconnaissance to understand the density of minefields. Ukrainian officials said the Americans didn’t seem to comprehend how attack drones and other technology had transformed the battlefield.
  • In all, Ukraine has retaken only about 200 square miles of territory, at a cost of thousands of dead and wounded and billions in Western military aid in 2023 alone.

Sounds like Ukraine is doing pretty great there.

remotelove , (edited )

Russian army is currently routing Ukrainians in Avdiivka as we speak

Not hardly. Russian sources keep misreporting this battle. The coke plant is a great example: How many times has it been “taken”? Was capturing it once not enough? That kind of location doesn’t switch hands on a whim, btw.

The troop movements by Russia into that city are horrendous. The sheer numbers of soldiers that get turned into paste while charging into useless locations already zeroed by artillery is just weird.

A proven fact of war is that attackers are always at a disadvantage. Troop losses will be generally be much higher for any side that goes on the offense. The number 38k is just mind boggling low for the length of time it takes for Russia to take a city, especially against western weapons.

If 38k losses for Russia were actually a thing, there would be no need to increase their army size. Medvedev stated that Russia was able to recruit an additional 420k soldiers. That number is probably only about 100k, because Russia has their own numbering system for a lot of things.

Wagner alone lost ~10k prisoner conscripts in Bakhmut. Depending on the weather, or whatever, Wagner existed, or they never existed. Those numbers don’t count as Russians, I guess.

If you want a much better source of evil western fake data and propaganda, use the ISW. They also confirmed a NATO statement about Russia being at the 300k loss mark. understandingwar.org/…/ukraine-conflict-updates

Normally, I would say that 300k is likely over-inflated as well. However, just looking at how attacks are conducted by Russia makes that number believable.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Not hardly. Russian sources keep misreporting this battle. The coke plant is a great example: How many times has it been “taken”? Was capturing it once not enough? That kind of location doesn’t switch hands on a whim, btw.

Even Ukrainian sources admit this now. Given that Ukraine spent six month trying to take a place called Piatykhatky which literally translates into five huts, the fact that Russia is now close to taking a city that used to have 30k people before the war, and has been heavily fortified shows which side is making actual progress.

The troop movements by Russia into that city are horrendous. The sheer numbers of soldiers that get turned into paste while charging into useless locations already zeroed by artillery is just weird.

Ah yes, bazillion Russians killed, asiatic hordes, and orc meat wave tactics. We’ve heard all that. By this point Russia must’ve lost like a 100 million people already.

A proven fact of war is that attackers are always at a disadvantage.

People keep regurgitating this, but that only applies to equal armies where the defender actually has weapons and troops to match. Russia massively outguns Ukraine, and vast majority of losses in this war are to artillery fire. If you actually wanted to understand what’s going on, you could read this explanation from Mearsheimer that’s well sourced.

The reality is that Russia enjoys roughly 10x artillery advantage over Ukraine, and that results in far greater casualties on the Ukrainian side. Ukraine has gone through three whole armies already, and they’re now literally mobilizing children, women, and the elderly. Meanwhile, Russia has only done a single mobilization in this whole time.

The number 38k is just mind boggling low for the length of time it takes for Russia to take a city, especially against western weapons.

38k number is total Russian losses since the start of the war.

If you want a much better source of evil western fake data and propaganda, use the ISW.

ISW is not a reliable source by any stretch of imagination. It’s Nuland’s personal propaganda outlet. There is literally zero evidence for Russian losses being anywhere near 300k. BBC and Mediazona are the only western outlets that have a methodology they can show.

remotelove ,

Assuming that everything we both are saying is false, the fact remains that Russia hasn’t hardly been able to move the lines at all. You can flash that chart you want with land gains from 2023, but it doesn’t really apply.

Russia is still an attacking force, they are still the invaders and they are locked in a slow stalemate with a much smaller force. Russia does have many more resources, so it must be their choice to have stretched this conflict out for as long as it has been going, for whatever reason. (Without a doubt, you have a long list of counter arguments and media links to the contrary. Even your boy Rybar doesn’t align with what you are saying.)

I respect the work of Mediazona to a degree, but they are open about their inaccuracies. They appear to define “casualties” as only deaths. Of those deaths, they are only counting verified ones from social media, local news and from government sources that aren’t named. If they aren’t counting a casualty in the true definition of a “war casualty”, the numbers are going to be different. (Their own estimates put true numbers of deaths around 55k in July which would put allow for a wider casualty estimate of around 165k casualties. You use the napkin math of 1:3, killed:removed from battle permanently)

“The figures we provide are sourced from publicly available information, including social media posts from family members, local media coverage, and official statements from local authorities. However, these figures represent only a partial account and do not reflect the full extent of the casualties.”

And yeah, it’s the Russian M.O. to use mass instead of quality. It’s their thing. Little value is placed on a single soldier or even an artillery shell. That concept is baked into all of their military hardware designs and strategy.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Russia’s goal hasn’t been to move the lines. Their goal is to grind down Ukrainian army until it collapses. You don’t have to take my word for it, this was the assessment of U.S. Lt. Col. Alex Vershinin retired after 20 years of service, including eight years as an armor officer with four combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan and 12 years working as a modeling and simulations officer in NATO and U.S. Army concept development and experimentation. This assessment is shared by vast majority of military experts:

www.russiamatters.org/…/whats-ahead-war-ukraine

Russia is still an attacking force, they are still the invaders and they are locked in a slow stalemate with a much smaller force.

That’s a simplistic characterization. The reality is that both sides do their share of attacks. For example, if Russia takes a bit of territory then Ukraine is forced to try and take it back. Ukraine has also conducted a huge offensive over the past six months on a far bigger scale than anything Russia’s done so far, and if attacking is what nets you a lot of losses then this would be the biggest source of casualties over the course of the war.

I don’t really follow Rybar, I haven’t found them to be all that reliable. People like Vershinin, Macgregor, Berletic, and Mearsheimer have been consistently decent at explaining what’s happening, and what they’ve been predicting would happen actually aligns with what we’re seeing. Telegram channels are simply not comparable to actual experts.

55k deaths with 165k wounded is certainly a plausible number in my opinion. However, even with these numbers, Russia clearly has no problems growing the size of the army. Meanwhile, Ukraine has a much smaller population to draw on, and many people fled the country at the start of the war making the situation worse. The fact that Ukraine keeps expanding the mobilization efforts is a strong indicator of serious losses.

Ukraine has three major problems. First is that it’s entirely reliant on the west economically, and support is now dwindling. Second is that Ukraine is also reliant on the west for weapons and ammunition which are running out. Especially problematic given that the west is refocusing it’s support to backing Israel’s genocide in Palestine. Finally, Ukraine is running out of a trained and motivated soldiers needed to hold the army together. Once the professional core is gone, it can’t simply be replaced by people kidnapped off the street and given a few weeks of training.

And yeah, it’s the Russian M.O. to use mass instead of quality.

It’s absolutely not their thing, and it’s just another piece of western mythology. You should read a bit of actual history of WW2 to see this has no basis in reality.

Paragone ,

At the moment Ukraine is winning.

When Trump is crowned GEOTUS, after the Repubs win 2024 ( the economic rug-pull in 2024 will remove the Dems, through backlash-vote ) then the tide will turn, as the gutted remains of NATO/OTAN try to understand how to endure as the TOTAL global geopolitcs table got thrown, violently, on its side, scattering all the playing-pieces, all the indicators, EVERYthing gets flipped, then.

GEOTUS Trump will back Russia & Saudi Arabia, both.

Possibly China, as well ( he does have investments in China ).

The remains of the Western-cultures’ alliance are then on their own.

US Civil War Part2 will probably destroy about a quarter billion lives in North America within 14y,

and ww3 begins a mere 7y after Trump’s crowning ( +/- 1 year ).

Things are going to be VERY tough in Eastern Europe, with the US pouring its support into exterminating the former Soviet Bloc countries who oppose Putin/Russia, with the US backing Russia.

Wait & see.

It’s going to be hell, on Earth, for almost-all of this century.

The drastically quicker-than-simulated sea-level-rise isn’t going to help, particularly since Greenland’s meltwater will drown the North Atlantic coasts ( it takes 1000 years for it to redistribute to near Australia. The 1st few centuries it’ll be predominantly drowning the West ), and when you add enough water to raise the PLANET’s sea-level by 1 metre, but you put it ALL in the North Atlantic…

it may well be 3m around the North Atlantic, this century.

( there is a powerlaw underlying planetary heating, current atmospheric CO2 requires the planet to equilize at more than +5C.

When you add-in the anthrogenic methane, as CO2 equivalent, the planetary equalization temperature is more than +8C.

All the “+1.5C” and “+2C” are baseless delusions, contradicted by historical data of the last couple million years. )

Anyways, eyes-open, calibrate, prepare, & earn making oneself competent for what is guaranteed to come, right?

_ /\ _

half_built_pyramids ,

Right now I am hearing ever louder calls of Russia winning

Winning was taking over the county at first. Then it was kherson, and donbass, crimea, and a few others. Now it’s just like 3 areas. If you’re hearing anything about winning it’s because the goal posts are moving.

Youtuber Perun had some good high level takes on the war. It all boils down to Western support will win. As long as support keeps coming from the rest of the world, eventually Russia will run out of material. WW2 was won (not wholly, but in large part) due to the larger economy being on the allies side.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Do provide us with sources where Russians stated these were the goals. Seems like it’s western propagandists who’ve been making up goals for Russia and then moving the goal posts.

vzq ,

We were here two years ago. Stop gaslighting.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

You were lying two years ago just the same as you are now. Where are the sources?

vzq ,

gIvE mE sOuRCeS

v_pp ,

so, what, you just make shit up then deflect when someone points that out?

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Yeah, give me sources for the wild shit you keep making up here. The fact that this is your reaction when being confronted about your lies says all we need to know about you.

vzq ,

gIvE mE sOuRCeS

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

don’t have any do you troll

vzq ,

gIvE mE sOuRCeS
gIvE mE sOuRCeS

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

keep screeching

Kepabar ,

Do I need sources for the failed invasion of Kyiv?

Everyone knows about it.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Yeah, I need sources for the fantastical claim that Russia was trying to take Kyiv with 100k troops. It’s a particularly interesting claim given that they allocated 40k troops to take Mariupol which is an order of magnitude smaller city. A far more plausible scenario is that Russia used 100k troops to fix a chunk of Ukrainian army around Kyiv while Russians took large parts of Ukrainian territory in the east which they still hold today.

azertyfun ,

The paratroopers in Kyiv’s airport were just taking in the scenery. Really unfortunate that they were shot. And that 50 km tank column headed for Kyiv really was just lost on its way to Mariupol. Yep, exactly, that’s what happened.

Lmao what a lame-ass trolling attempt, you have mush for brains if you think this is either effective propaganda or… funny?

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

The only one with mush for brains is the guy who thinks Russia would be trying to take Kyiv with 100k troops. The fact that you don’t even understand why that’s absurd makes it all the more hilarious.

boreengreen ,

During ww2 the involved parties and their allies were in wartime economy. This is the support that ukraine needs. I feel like today, the west is sending the military version of happy meal aid packages, once in a while, when it’s politically convenient. Should we scale up manufacturing for wartime? Let’s procrastinate.

Ilovethebomb ,

Nah, the amount of aid and material they’re sending is substantial, including modern tanks and artillery, as well as more mundane things like shells, bullets etc.

And they will keep doing it for as long as it takes.

dudinax ,

The West would like Ukraine to win, but it’s more important to the West that the war drag on and be a drain on Russia’s resources.

Kissaki ,

No it’s not. The west has nothing to gain from it dragging on. Nobody wants it to drag on.

ours ,

It sucks for Ukraine but a Russia tied down in Ukraine has less funds to meddle with the rest of the World.

It drains their military and their economy while Putin must be extra careful against coups. There has been one very famous coup attempt directly related to the war (Wagner Group) and who knows how many other smaller attempts have been stopped preemptively?

v_pp ,

This is some absolutely depraved shit. You’re sitting here justifying levels of death and destruction and human misery that are beyond your comprehension just because of some made up conspiracy theories about Russia “meddling” with other countries. In what possible universe does that make you anything other than pure fucking evil?

fruitycoder ,

Very expensive way to drain Russia. Tbh following trends the best way to drain Russia was the status quo of letting Putin dictate it into obscurity through corruption.

ours ,

But during the status quo, Putin had his hands free to finance destabilizing extremists, Internet troll armies and wage cyberwarfare on the West.

All while reflecting an image of strength.

dudinax ,

They have quite a lot to gain by it. Getting the other side stuck in a quagmire has been the preferred strategy for both sides in US vs. Russia for decades.

Kissaki , (edited )

They would gain more by cooperation or ignoring.

It’s just that you can’t do that when the other party is actively destructive.

Doesn’t make it a gain in my eyes. Labeling it a gain at least requires a contextualized qualification. So saying the EU is interested in prolonging the conflict is very disingenuous.

EU would have far more to gain ffrom Russia leaving Ukraine. Saying the EU wants to prolong the conflict for gains is disingenuous, at least misleading or ambiguous.

dudinax ,

What the West gains is a diminished Russia less inclined to adventure. That’s a big gain.

The most important goal in this situation for the West is to avoid war with Russia. Since Russia has the resources to wage the war for a long time as long as the West doesn’t join it, then whether Ukraine wins is purely a Russian decision.

fruitycoder ,

The amount of people fighting back on supporting a sovereign democracy getting attacked by a oligarchical dictatorship is nuts.

Like we did appeasement in the 40s already, it was a bad strategy.

ComradeEd ,
@ComradeEd@lemmygrad.ml avatar

Like we did appeasement in the 40s already, it was a bad strategy.

No no. It was a great strategy. Germany went to war. It was just that Germany also went to war with us, which wasn’t what we wanted.

Krause ,
@Krause@lemmygrad.ml avatar

Perun

Garbage NATO propaganda channel, about as reliable to give you an honest summary of what is happening as listening to the Ukrainian government itself.

WW2 was won (not wholly, but in large part) due to the larger economy being on the allies side

On the Soviet’s side*, 80% of Germany’s casualties were in the Eastern Front.

Aria ,

The absurd claims of Russia’s goals are all from western propaganda. This is from the day of the invasion: rt.com/…/550466-putin-ukraine-opeartion-goals/What are their goals?

  • Demilitarise Ukraine – This is a huge task, but they’re making fast progress.
  • Denazify Ukraine – They’re failing this task, but it’s something that can’t be done until after the war anyway.
  • Create a buffer between a NATO-member-Ukraine and Russia – Incorporating Donbas might satisfy this goal.
  • Stop the sieges on Donetsk and Lugansk – This goal has been met.

And then they clarify, denazification is optional. A general occupation of Ukraine is not their plan.

If there is more land they want to occupy, then occupying and holding it now doesn’t actually further that goal. The only thing holding it now is good for is protecting the civilians or using it strategically, either industrially or for staging. Because if the country is successfully demilitarised, Ukraine won’t be able to resist occupation, so that land can be taken later for cheaper. But they haven’t outlined a goal of taking additional land. Crimea was already incorporated at the time, so that’s an extra implied goal – Don’t lose Russian land.

DerisionConsulting ,

The goal posts for both sides are very, very different.

The invading Russian forces have basically failed their first goal; to fully take over Ukraine. They can now claim a minor victory by stealing more territory from Ukraine than just Crimea.

Ukraine’s goal was to stop Russia from wiping them off of the map. Things appear to have changed. Their new goal is to retake all land that Russia has stolen (including Crimea).

The war has largely been at a standstill for a while, and the only times that Ukraine has been able to make progress is when the word has given its attention and resources. Since “Israel vs Hamas” is the guerre-du-jour, Ukraine seems to be getting less of both.

So I may sound like a doomer, but it’s not looking good for the good guys. They have a much harder victory condition, and the resources that they have relied so far may be drying up.

Krause , (edited )
@Krause@lemmygrad.ml avatar

to fully take over Ukraine

This was never Russia’s goal, you can’t quote a single Russian official stating that this was the objective of the SMO.

Ukraine’s goal was to stop Russia from wiping them off of the map

No, Ukraine’s goal was to “liberate” Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea and return to their 1991 borders.

ukrainianworldcongress.org/ukraine-will-liberate-…

news.yahoo.com/ukraine-fight-until-last-liberated…

tvpworld.com/…/ukraine-is-fighting-to-restore-its…

They’ve failed and will never reach this goal.

So I may sound like a doomer, but it’s not looking good for the good guys

It is, you’re just not on the side of the good guys : )

gullible ,

I wish I didn’t have to individually block lemmygrad accounts- it’s my only issue with kbin.social. Still love you, Ernest.

toomanyjoints69 ,

Could you whine less? I like the positive energy of this place and you are ruining my vibes.

gullible ,

I’m positive that this comment will help me find more users who stray from your echo chamber. Keep ‘em coming.

toomanyjoints69 ,

Are you upset?

NoIWontPickaName ,

You don’t understand blocks do you? Here’s another shot.

MeowZedong ,
@MeowZedong@lemmygrad.ml avatar

The people straying from the “echo chamber” aren’t the ones blocking others for dissent. Sounds like you’re projecting.

gullible ,

I’m open to new political opinions, just not regressing through yours.

MeowZedong ,
@MeowZedong@lemmygrad.ml avatar

I completely understand blocking or ignoring those who engage you in bad faith, but when someone disagrees with you and also engages in a discussion in good faith, you are merely silencing voices of dissent by blocking them.

How is that approach not creating an echo chamber? It seems hypocritical to label spaces that welcome good faith discourse “echo chambers” while creating your own.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

I love how libs can’t even block others without doing virtue signalling 😂

CannotSleep420 ,

You are really living up to your username.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Pretty funny how you can provide an explanation backed by references and then get mass downvotes because libs still have problems engaging with reality after a year and a half of being wrong about absolutely everything.

Ilovethebomb ,

Of course the Lemmygrad user wants to tongue punch Putin’s chocolate starfish.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

I love how libs just regurgitate the same lines in lieu of an argument like trained seals. 😂

ksynwa ,
@ksynwa@lemmy.ml avatar

The invading Russian forces have basically failed their first goal; to fully take over Ukraine.

Has Russia ever stated that this was their goal?

TheSanSabaSongbird ,

Yes.

CannotSleep420 ,

Sauce?

Susaga ,
@Susaga@ttrpg.network avatar

That time they tried to fully take over Ukraine. That’s a pretty good indicator.

CannotSleep420 ,

Since they’re very obviously not trying to take over all of Ukraine, I’ll take that as an admission that you’re full of shit.

shottymcb ,

So you don’t consider charging at a countries capital and dropping airborne troops into a capital trying to take over a country? That’s a really weird take.

CannotSleep420 ,

Reality isn’t a paradox game, so no, I don’t.

ksynwa ,
@ksynwa@lemmy.ml avatar

Can you provide proof for this?

Crankpork ,

Oh my god, we get it, you’re exhausting.

No, I’m not providing proof of this exhaustion. Do your own research.

ksynwa ,
@ksynwa@lemmy.ml avatar

I did try. I just didn’t find anything that remotely comes close to supporting what you claimed.

Crankpork ,

Keep looking. You’ll get it eventually.

ksynwa ,
@ksynwa@lemmy.ml avatar

smuglord

AndrasKrigare ,

Considering Russia denied their intent to invade as they were conducting it, I don’t know that their statements should be considered truth regarding their plans and goals. But here’s Westpoint’s take on the matter:

Initially, the Russian regime may have regarded its invasion of Ukraine as a “regional conflict” with “important” military-political goals, and its classification as a “special military operation” may have been genuine. Indeed, it seems that the Kremlin’s ambitious political objective was to install a new, pro-Russian government in Kyiv by lightning action.

mwi.westpoint.edu/what-is-russias-theory-of-victo….

ksynwa ,
@ksynwa@lemmy.ml avatar

You are unironically sharing a quote riddled with "may"s and "seem"s from United States Military Academy

AndrasKrigare ,

And you are making a statement that seems to suggest absolute knowledge of a country’s intentions are possible with a leader with a lack of credibility and long history of lying on the world stage.

Gee, this is fun. Or were you making some point? Were you expecting some report about their magic mind-reading device?

ksynwa ,
@ksynwa@lemmy.ml avatar

Were you expecting some report about their magic mind-reading device?

But this is what you have been doing all along. Nothing in reality suggests that total annexation of Ukraine was the goal. Not the words of anyone nor the manner in which Russia has executed the invasion yet here you are somehow reading minds to conjure grand motives and subjecting me to smug Reddittor-speak for the crime of asking you to back your frivolous claims. “Gee, this is fun.” Jesus Christ.

AndrasKrigare ,

Nothing in reality suggests that total annexation of Ukraine was the goal

Wait, I’m confused, were you looking for “is” or “suggests?” Because I sent you an article all about “suggests.” And, follow-up question, did you think ‘You are unironically sharing a quote riddled with "may"s and "seem"s from United States Military Academy’ is not smug and was a genuinely civil question?

Since it seems you might not be great at this whole “communicating” thing, I’ll be explicit: Yes, those questions were rhetorical. No, you’ve given me nothing to suggest I should care what your response is.

ksynwa ,
@ksynwa@lemmy.ml avatar

Gee, this is fun. Reality is not wishy washy statements from literal America military institutions. It just exposes you as someone who gobbles American state department nonsense wholesale uncritically. If you watched your Rick and Morty properly you would have known that it is not a smart thing to do. Reality in this case refers to what’s happening on the ground in the war. Like Russia holding it’s annexed territories rather trying to expand indiscriminately.

No, you’ve given me nothing to suggest I should care what your response is.

You are an idiot.

WashedAnus ,
@WashedAnus@hexbear.net avatar

Raytheon and Lockheed-Martin shareholders. BAE and Rheinmetall investors are probably doing well, too.

Aria ,

The capitalist class in the USA is winning the war. Russia is surviving, and Ukraine is losing. The goal of the war is to launder as much tax payer money from working class USA and Europeans to the political elite and their friends as possible. They do this by purchasing weapons from their own capitalists using tax money. The capitalists then share the money with the bureaucracy that facilitates the money laundering. The secondary goal is to subjugate Russia, and failing that, hurt them as much as possible so that they can be subjugated in the future. Subjugating Russia is necessary because Russia’s military power is regularly used against the interests of the capitalist class in the USA.

DeathsEmbrace ,

Anybody in weapons manufacturing is the real winner of the Ukraine war.

Rozz ,

To add to what a lot of people said, it seems that Ukraine is doing better, but Russia has more people / convicts / anti-fascists to (arrest then) throw at the other side. When the support for Ukraine dries up is a key question too.

Kuori ,
@Kuori@hexbear.net avatar

if by “doing better” you mean conscripting women and children then yeah, ukraine is kicking ass

zephr_c ,

I don’t think either side will be able to decisively beat the other, but that’s not how these things usually end anyway.

Actually, I think it’s pretty funny in a sad sort of way that Americans don’t get how this is going to go. It’s really obvious that Ukraine doesn’t need to win, they just need to keep fighting until Russia goes home. Western aid isn’t even really making much of a difference in the eventual outcome of the war, it’s just reducing the damage that Russia is doing to Ukraine and bring that inevitable end closer faster. We’ve seen over, and over, and over again that once a group of people actually make up their minds to resist, there is nothing that can stop them. Even if the aggressor can bring overwhelming military superiority they will eventually give up and go home, and Russia can’t even do that.

The question isn’t who will win. The question is how many war crimes will Putin commit before admitting he lost this war in the second week.

IsThisLoss ,

copium

ICastFist ,
@ICastFist@programming.dev avatar

I’d say the only ones winning are those selling stuff to Ukraine and Russia. I also remember a panel some months ago, about how the other EU countries will help rebuild Ukraine once the war is over. To me, it looked like they were already slicing the not even dead body in order to profit off it.

Ukraine as a whole is at a bigger loss, given all the infrastructure damage and population losses, this one counting both deaths and people fleeing the country.

lolcatnip ,

How is rebuilding a country equivalent to slicing it up?

wewbull ,

Slicing it up like slicing a cake. Dividing up the profits between themselves. Rebuilding a country doesn’t happen for free you know. There’s no depths to the debt the west can plunge Ukraine into over this war, unless we force Russia to pay. I hear they have lots of oil.

lolcatnip ,

What a terrible analogy. It implies that “rebuilding” Ukraine will actually involve destroying it just because people are paid to do the work.

ICastFist ,
@ICastFist@programming.dev avatar

Ukraine will likely lack the money to pay for the work for decades, so they’ll likely have to compromise with treaties and concessions beyond the reconstruction work. The more likely result will be a very weak government that’ll have to concede to several wants of the companies working there, who will use their money to put political EU pressure on Ukraine.

It implies that “rebuilding” Ukraine will actually involve destroying it just because people are paid to do the work.

You can only rebuild what has been damaged or destroyed and the companies that offered help see future profits going up with every building that crumbles. None of them are doing anything out of goodwill, they just see money to be made.

neptune ,

The media won’t give you “an answer”. Is a war like a board game where everyone can see the pieces and count the score according to the rules? What is Russia objective? Idk. Are they meeting it? Sure, to some degree. At what cost? We’ll we only have a small sense of the costs.

Is Ukraine “winning”? Well they have lost so much but not everything. Are they meeting their objectives? We’ll their state didn’t fall. That’s good.

And you just want some OP ED at NYT to just sum it up like it’s a football game?

JoeDaRedTrooperYT ,
@JoeDaRedTrooperYT@lemmygrad.ml avatar

:100:

JoeDaRedTrooperYT ,
@JoeDaRedTrooperYT@lemmygrad.ml avatar

“Defense” companies naturally.

bouh ,

It’s mostly a stalemate for now. The dam destruction helped Russia funnel Ukraine counterattack on its biggest fortifications, so not much progress for Ukraine in the south. Russia resumed its offensive in the Dombass and Aavdiivka is starting to look like the new Bhakmut.

It’s an attrition war and Russia is losing like 2 or 3 times as much as Ukraine in men or material. But Russia has much more men than Ukraine. Russian morale is very low, but Ukraine support from the west is under big pressure, both from Russian propaganda and conservative/fascist political parties. This last one is the real war happening now.

Next year will be important because of the elections in the US. What happen on the battlefield is still to be seen.

MooseGas ,
@MooseGas@kbin.social avatar

Economically, Russia has also been hit hard. NATO has also expanded, which is a blow to Russia.

bouh ,

Yes, but Russia is also supported by Iran and China. And there’s no sign of political collapse in Russia.

I’m not saying Russia is winning. It would take them a millenia to conquer Ukraine at this pace. But I think currently they are only buying time to wait for US election. After that, and depending on whether a breakthrough happen or not before that, peace talk may happen, or not. Time will tell.

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