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yogthos OP ,
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China is massively investing into nuclear power right now, so that could bring the costs down dramatically in the coming years.

yogthos OP ,
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When large scale projects are publicly owned, then there isn’t really a worry about economic sustainability. In fact, this can be seen as long term job creation since these projects will require on going repair and maintenance. It also looks like countries in the Global South are already benefiting as China’s been exporting their infrastructure there. For example, China built high-speed rail in Indonesia and subway in Vietnam.

yogthos OP ,
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The cost of maintenance is not really an issue when it’s a state run industry. Also, China is building stuff like thorium reactors now that run on molten salt and are inherently safer. Also worth noting that any tech becomes cheaper as you deploy more of it. You get better operating practices, standardization, better safety procedures, and so on. There’s nothing about nuclear that makes it uniquely expensive to maintain.

yogthos OP ,
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You have vastly more space to work with in 3d than 1.5d. Also, these things are going to be automated from the start, so you don’t have to worry about human drivers acting unpredictably. All the taxis can be aware of one another and plan a route that avoids other vehicles. It’s a much simpler problem when you don’t have humans in the loop.

yogthos OP ,
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Yeah, there’s a huge advantage to having a fully automated system from the start.

yogthos OP ,
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For something like a taxi they’d pretty much have to be though. I haven’t really been following this stuff too closely, so don’t know how challenging weather conditions become for quadcopter automated landings.

yogthos OP ,
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Oh I missed that as well. I guess they’re not ambitious enough to try and make it automated yet. I just assumed they were unmanned because every time I see demos of this stuff it just has a cab without controls in it.

yogthos OP ,
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I can see that, knowing that a pilot has skin in the game is definitely reassuring. I do think that at some point we will get to the point where such taxis are completely automated. It does seem like this is a simpler problem than self driving cars. You have a lot more space to work with and there aren’t pedestrians, or random obstacles to worry about. The weather is the only really hard problem here. And if all flying taxis are automated then they can be aware of each other and plan routes around one another.

And electric flying taxis might actually work better for longer range travel than road based ones since they can cover a lot more distance in a short time. If you have predictable routes then you know exactly how much battery you need. Landing stations could even provide swappable batteries, so a taxi could land, swap out for a charged battery and be ready to go.

yogthos OP ,
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Yeah very much agree with all that. I’d personally prefer if this sort of tech was restricted to automated taxi services that are highly regulated. Opening it up to private cars sounds like a recipe for disaster. Definitely going to be interesting to follow how China develops this tech.

yogthos OP ,
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fair I haven’t found any collaboration either outside Israel, will take it down

yogthos OP ,
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Given how all the western leaders had canned statements ready to go within minutes, there was clearly no way anybody in the west would want to hear that it wasn’t foul play.

yogthos , (edited )
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Oh please do explain to us how Ukrainian military intelligence chief is shilling for Putin. This ought to be good.

yogthos ,
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Seems like the main goal was to just convince the public that Europe is no longer dependent on Russia for energy. In that sense they succeeded, since a lot of Europeans now believe this.

yogthos ,
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Direct trade has reduced, but Europe is still buying Russian energy through third parties. Russia is still making record profits, third parties are skimming off top, and European public is footing the bill. Pretty good deal for everyone but Europe is seems.

yogthos OP ,
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I think it’ll be a while before we reach the level of automation where killed workers aren’t needed.

yogthos OP ,
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Yeah it’s a complete fantasy. It literally takes thousands of people on Earth to keep a small crew alive on the ISS. We’re nowhere close to being able to make self sufficient colonies on another planet.

yogthos OP ,
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Oh I know how fancy boston dynamics robots are, but you gotta remember that a lot of that is scripted. Boston dynamics figured out how to make a neural net that can produce really fluid movements and keep balance, but somebody still has to control the robot and tell it what to do. You also need to repair the robots, do maintenance, etc. Until we have AGI, humans are still going to be needed to do a lot of work.

yogthos OP ,
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We don’t really know where the plateau for the current AI techniques is. A lot of what we see looks impressive, but it’s very superficial in practice. Pretty much all AI today boils down to feeding huge volumes of data into a neural network that ends up creating a compressed representation of the data, and then doing stochastic predictions based on that model. This is great for doing stuff like text or image generation, but it simply doesn’t work for any applications where there’s a specific correct result needed. What’s worse is that use of such systems to control things in the physical world is incredibly dangerous as we’re seeing with self driving cars.

Since the neural net is simply comparing numbers together to make decisions it doesn’t have any understanding of what it’s actually doing in a human sense. It’s not able to explain the reasoning behind its decisions to a human or even guarantee to understand human instruction. And it’s not aware of its own limitations.

In order to make an AI that can replace a human decision maker it would need to have an internal representation of the physical world that’s similar to our own. Then we would have to teach it language within the context of the world. This is how we could build an AI that can be said to understand things and that we have a shared context with allowing us to communicate in a meaningful way. People are experimenting with this stuff, but this sort of stuff is still in very early stages, and it’s not clear that techniques used for LLM models will work well for this approach.

I’d caution to be highly skeptical regarding AI claims we’re seeing because most of these claims are made by people who have very little understanding of how this stuff actually works, and whose job is to sell this tech to the public. Pretty much none of the actual experts in the field share this optimism.

Of course, nobody knows what the future brings and we might make some amazing breakthroughs in the coming years. However, given what we know right now, there’s little reason to expect this sort of exponential growth to continue for long. It’s also worth noting that we’ve already gone through a wave of similar hype back in the 80s where people started getting really impressive results with neural nets and symbolic logic, but scaling that turned out to be much harder than anybody anticipated.

yogthos OP ,
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Right, but how much support do these bots need behind the scenes. Somebody has to do maintenance on them, somebody has to be able to decide whether they’re functioning properly, whether they have problems that need to be addressed, etc. Hence why I think there will still be need for workers. It’s just the nature of work is going to be around making sure the robots are operating smoothly. You’d probably need a relatively small workforce, but I don’t think you could eliminate it entirely by 2040.

yogthos OP ,
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My prediction is that this going to turn out to be hype for the most part. We’ll definitely see some advances in AI happening, but I’m far more skeptical about the wild claims about full automation. I think what we’re seeing is companies riding the hype wave and trying to get investments while this tech is looking really hot. Like you said, we’ll see where we are in a decade or so.

yogthos OP ,
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or maybe they just don’t have any actual point to make and run around smearing people instead, which always seems to be the case with liberals

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