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Who's winning the war in Ukraine?

The media won’t give me great answers to this question and I think this I trust this community more, thus I want to know from you. Also, I have heard reports that Russia was winning the war, if that’s true, did the west miscalculate the situation by allowing diplomacy to take a backseat and allowing Ukraine to a large plethora of military resources?

PS: I realize there are many casualties on both sides and I am not trying to downplay the suffering, but I am curious as to how it is going for Ukraine. Right now I am hearing ever louder calls of Russia winning, those have existed forever, but they seem to have grown louder now, so I was wondering what you thought about it. Also, I am somewhat concerned of allowing a dictatorship to just erase at it’s convenience a free and democratic country.

lntl ,

arms manufacturers

ThatFembyWho ,

Came here to say this.

winners: arms manufacturers and dealers, “defense” industry, military-industrial complex

losers: soldiers, civilians

Carighan ,
@Carighan@lemmy.world avatar

Add people like Putin, oligarchs, etc. To losers, add just about everyone else, the climate, any actually important social or economic program as billions of money are burned on an unnecessary pyre for someone’s ego, etc etc etc.

ThatFembyWho ,

Is Putin really a winner tho? They almost had a coup. I mean if the war was going amazingly well, but their economy is shit, they’re isolated, and they are in stale mate with an enemy they should dominate…

sunbeam60 ,

I’ve been following along daily, have an army background so take from that what you will.

I think Russia is winning the war, strategically. They are losing a small amount of ground, but there’s no breakthrough and every day that goes by in the current state is a day closer to a fragile peace deal that secures Russia’s winnings. I think anything beyond Krim is just buffer zone. This is fundamentally about securing access to ocean - Russia is extremely constricted in getting its navy to sea.

With a frozen war Ukraine won’t be admitted to NATO - in that way, I think Russia is content to have a frozen conflict, because it creates a weak buffer state between Russia and NATO.

So in terms of securing its desired outcomes, Russia is winning.

crackajack ,

I would disagree. It is still far from being able to tell with clarity if Russia is winning. Plenty of things could still happen. Somehow, we’re often forgetting naval warfare and focus too much on the army/ground level. Ukraine managing to turn the Russian fleet scurrying away from Sevastopol, as it had become too vulnerable for missile attacks, is no easy feat. And they killed the top Russian Black Sea officers (I’m convinced Admiral Sokolov is dead). This gave Ukraine needed breathing room to finally resume grain shipments, which could help Ukraine further finance the war and remove Russia’s stranglehold and ability to blackmail the world from accessing grains.

Although, how would all these translate to victory on land? Obviously, Ukraine will have more money coming in from exporting grain and other commodities. Might this allow them to buy more and better weapons? An option I see is Ukraine being able to intertidict Russian logistical lines, which they have proven to be pretty adept at. But the question is, would this lead to desired strategic successes and more immediate outcome desperately wanted by the West (we don’t need to know what Ukraine wants because they could keep going forever if they could)? Only time will tell.

crackajack ,

Well, you’re going to get different responses, many of which are good points, and depending on the person you asked.

But imo, it is hard to tell. And the best response we can say is: we don’t know. Ukraine retook many territories but so has Russia. Both sides suffered many casualties. The problem with analysing the war is the white noise coming from emotional responses on the events of the war happening at the time.

When Ukraine was invaded, everyone thought they will capitulate. They didn’t. Kyiv then retook Kharkiv Oblast, everyone thought Russia will surrender. The Ukrainian counteroffensive was hyped, but disappointed many. Prigozhin tried to coup Putin and thought it is the end of Putin, but they’re still here.

So, the best response to your question is, we don’t know. And that’s the most certain answer you could get and that is not a bad thing. For those who tend to forget, we still have the fog of war shrouding our vision. We don’t know what will happen in many months to come. Hindsight only tends to be 20/20 after an event.

However, I think the two major considerations for this year is 1. Ukraine had been effective in interdicting Russian logistical lines and sent the Russian Black Sea fleet reeling away from Crimea. Those are Ukrainian strategic gains that are often forgotten and not seen by the mainstream as important, who see ground combat as more important. 2. Though on the other side, the Russian support for Putin is still strong and either they support the war or ambivalent. In this case, Putin won the hearts and minds of Russians to either support or turn a blind eye to the conflict. Propaganda war is as important as military one to convince enough of the public to support it.

Ciel ,
@Ciel@lemmygrad.ml avatar

the us military industrial complex’s investors seems to be winning real good

Ilovethebomb ,

Let me guess, can’t bring yourself to say Russia is winning?

Subject6051 OP ,

I mean, I don’t want Russia to win, but I have no problem with accepting facts where I see them. I think almost everyone here would agree that both the countries involved have lost much more than they can ever gain out of this war.

Valmond ,

Russia is totally burning through crazy amounts of men and material, at an unsustainable level, without any advancements. So there is absolutely no “Russia wins” on the horizon.

I also think that Ukrainian freedom is what Ukraine thinks is worth more than anything.

lolcatnip ,

More to the point, Ukrainian freedom isn’t the empty, abstract “freedom” you see so many American politicians talk about. It’s freedom from Russian rule, and since the start of the war, Russia has been showing us exactly how much that kind of freedom is worth.

wewbull ,

You make it sound like this is a voluntary war for both sides, but it’s not. Only Russia chose to invade Ukraine, and they can choose to go back home and end it tomorrow. Ukraine is fighting because it was attacked and it’s people are still living under occupation.

ginerel , (edited )
@ginerel@kbin.social avatar

I tend to think as well that the situation in Ukraine is currently a stalemate. The fact is that, while Russia is losing weapons, Ukraine is gaining them. There's also a different quality of life for Western weapons compared to the Russian ones because, well, that's something that the West actually cared for back in the Cold War days. USSR and its satellites only cared about meeting the 5-year quota, or whatever they cared for in order to show the West they were more industrialized and whatnot. Western weapons are also more accurate and tends to integrate more hi-tech inside, so that you can use them for one-strike-one-kill instead of carpet bombing large swaths of land until nothing moves there. This is why, e.g. you have Grad systems with around 42 projectiles or so, all usually being fired in chain, while on HIMARS you only have a maximum of 6 projectiles, which are usually fired individually.

All this now proves vital for Ukraine, as it has to fight a country with a larger manpower, a larger (pre-war at least) stock of vehicles and a larger stock of ammunition. Ukraine, however, did not manage to become a powerful force on the counter-offensive. It does a great job at hardening Russian attacks, causing incredible amounts of damage for every inch of land lost, but the required weaponry for a successful breakthrough has been in short supply. Besides that, what Ukraine initially planned to do was to do a combined arms attack. And you cannot do this without a good amount of air support - which Ukraine was and is currently lacking.

IMO, it remains to be seen what will happen when Ukraine will finally start to operate F-16 jets (among other equipment it started to build in-house like drones), but as of now, on the equipment and fighting side, Ukraine is currently winning. On the loss side, while Russia loses more people and equipment than Ukraine, I'm afraid the numbers are proportionally the same for both sides. This is why I see it as heading to a stalemate in the foreseeable future. But Russia can no longer win what it initially planned, it is constantly changing the objectives in order to show the world that it achieved something, and Ukraine simply cannot lose. Russia's only advantage right now is being on the offensive itself.

nicetomeetyouIMVEGAN ,

It’s considered a positional stalemate, and that is politically advantageous for Russia. Both parties have been able to set up considerable defensive positions, making progress extremely costly. Both parties are still fighting for progress nonetheless, where Russia has the most trouble achieving it and Ukrainian forces are making small gains (field by field) on a consistent basis. But knowing that the frontlinie is many miles deep and there is intense trench warfare to make a few yards progress… There will be no swift or decisive victory on either side.

Putin has most of his followers convinced that he is fighting nato backed nazis. So even when Russian war tactics are brutally inefficient and the losses in personell and equipment are enormous, there is little internal political backlash. Internationally the conflict is seen as a regional dispute. Since Ukraine isn’t a part of a large international alliance. Western sanctions on Russia aren’t as impact full as they could have been.

It’s looking likely that the war in Ukraine is going to last a very long time. With guerilla attacks on Russian territory becoming more likely and higher in frequency. Russia doesn’t have the equipment left for large scale invasions, doesn’t have the money to create meaningful reserves. And the kremlin needs defensive power in other places along its border.

European and western sentiment is that Putin will not stop until the old ussr borders are back under his control. And being securely and unquestionably positioned as world superpower.

hemko ,

Death is the winner of any war

jaamesbaxterr ,

Don’t forget the defense contractors. People who make and sell weaponry and other war products are always the biggest winners.

hemko ,

Oh, they have nothing against the void. All of them will die.

jaamesbaxterr ,

True. Death is the great equalizer. Nobody gets out of this world alive. Lol

SplashJackson ,

Astronauts might

blackn1ght ,

It’s stalemate at the moment. It’s a waiting game for Western support of Ukraine to drop or for something domestically in Russia to fail.

Sheeple ,
@Sheeple@lemmy.world avatar

War is never pretty, never fun not clean. Everyone involved ultimately loses and brings tragedy to the unfortunate lifes and families on both sides.

However, if we are speaking purely about “winning” as if it was a game, then the Ukraine certainly is beating Russia and winning. However a victory in a war might not mean that the people of the country won’t be devastated afterwards.

MeowZedong ,
@MeowZedong@lemmygrad.ml avatar

“Nobody is winning.”

“Ukraine is winning, but nobody is winning.”

Omega_Haxors ,

“Ukraine is winning… but in reverse!”

DeathWearsANecktie ,

As others have said, it’s a war of attrition. There’s no end in sight. As it stands, we can only speculate on who is winning. Russia have so far failed to make any significant gains, and Ukraine have so far failed to push the Russians out.

It’s a bit like the stalemates of trench warfare in WW1. Something will have to give eventually.

Gosplan14_the_Third ,
@Gosplan14_the_Third@hexbear.net avatar

Or, the fighting will eventually stop and the current status quo will remain permanent. It’s hard to tell.

Valmond ,

That’s probably the only outcome that will never happen. Russia will re-attack again (as seen 2008, 2014, etc etc).

GivingEuropeASpook ,
@GivingEuropeASpook@hexbear.net avatar

It’s like the trenches of WWI combined with the forever wars the US fought in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Congratulations Russia, you’ve saddled yourself with a decades long conflict potentially and lost the geopolitical purpose of invading Ukraine within months since Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership.

PosadistInevitablity ,
@PosadistInevitablity@hexbear.net avatar

Ukraine eventually would have invaded Russian lands under a pretense that Russia had attacked first.

Western media would have covered for this. How exactly could Russia have avoided this war of Western aggression?

Sinister Bot ,
@Sinister@hexbear.net avatar

Sweden and Finland were part of the EU defense clause. They were already defacto NATO members. Sweden even was constantly aggressive towards russia before the Ukraine war.

Now the Americans can openly build their bases. The welfare states of these two nations will certainly decline as well. The presence of american bases, curiously leads to the same economic policies each time.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmygrad.ml avatar

It’s a war of attrition that Ukraine is losing because they have a much smaller population to draw on and rely on weapons from the west. Ukraine is already conscripting children, women, and the elderly now. It’s absurd to think that such conscripts are going to be able to hold off a seasoned professional army for long.

Microw ,

If Russia actually had a “seasoned professional army”, this war would already be over. Russia is putting inexperienced youths from underdeveloped regions at the front line because their elite doesnt want to fight.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmygrad.ml avatar

I recommend reading what people who actually have a clue have to say on the subject www.russiamatters.org/…/whats-ahead-war-ukraine

Fishroot ,

The arm industry

CanadaPlus ,

Russia should have had the conventional phase all finished in a couple months, so by that measure Ukraine. Russia has also lost territory the whole way past the battle of Kiev, so by that measure also Ukraine. Neither look set to win any time soon, so by that measure (which is probably the important one) it’s a stalemate. The big variables now are Western support and Russian political stability as the conflict drags on. Neither side is close to running out of men.

The claims that Russia was winning the whole time come from basically the geopolitical version of flat earthers, who believe exactly the opposite of what everyone else does. Or actual Russian agents, but as far as I can tell that’s rare.

Maoo ,
@Maoo@hexbear.net avatar

Well Ukraine itself is definitely losing. They will probably lose territory to Poland as well if this keeps up and they have sold their country out to capitalists, mostly Americans. Loans, land, industries, etc all to pay for “their” war effort. The common Ukrainian is who suffers the most under this. They will be more exploited (paid less for the value of their labor), see more social programs dismantled, and go into a serious recession/depression that may not lift for decades.

Russia is doing okay. The US is pulling Europe more into its orbit (making them pay more for less from the US while losing a lot of their industry), which is a loss for Russia, but that was the remand endgame of the US anyways. What was surprising, at least to some, was the extent to which Russia could survive and even thrive when subjected to the most significant financial weapons the West has. Overall their economy is certainly in a better place now and a chunk of Ukraine will be theirs and the other chunk will be weak. This is a victory for the ruling class of Russia and its overall geopolitical self-interest.

The US ruling class is making out like bandits as usual, funding its weapons industry, basically a cash injection for the owner class and the only thing the US ever reliably does (threaten its chosen enemies with destruction).

Silverseren ,

Sorry, but we really weren't interested in hearing about the warped worldview of tankies in this thread.

Gosplan14_the_Third ,
@Gosplan14_the_Third@hexbear.net avatar

They will probably lose territory to Poland as well if this keeps up

Sigh

No they won’t. It was a fringe position in the Polish far-right before the election and now that the libs have won it’s even less likely to happen.

GivingEuropeASpook ,
@GivingEuropeASpook@hexbear.net avatar

Also Russia is totally cooking the books/cozying up to China as the lesser power in the relationship

420stalin69 , (edited )

It was a fringe position in the Polish far-right before the election and now that the libs have won it’s even less likely to happen.

The Polish far-right are a dominant political force.

And it’s under the relatively lib coalition that relations have reached their lowest point.

I think if Ukraine comes out of this with borders that roughly resemble the current front lines then they’ll keep Lviv but there’s a real possibility of political collapse in Ukraine, if things get worse and if the currently cooperating power centers turn on each other, and in that collapse scenario it becomes pretty plausible.

probably still less likely to happen than not but it’s definitely plausible and there are multiple plausible-to-likely pathways where you can see the political situation in Ukraine deteriorating to the point of collapse.

I don’t think I buy the current Russian narrative that the military camp are about to coup Zelenskyy but he’s definitely under enormous pressure right now, and even if a coup likely isn’t about to happen you can nonetheless see Zelenskyy and the military camp making political defense lines between each other, and the number of high level aides, spouses, and the like opening boxes that accidentally contained a grenade or suffered an unfortunate food poisoning incident is pretty eyebrow raising.

TheAnonymouseJoker ,
@TheAnonymouseJoker@lemmy.ml avatar

Russia is successfully and deservedly shitting on all of NATO’s weaponry, warfare and weapon manufacturing capabilities. They won the war long ago, now it is just being dragged. I see a lot of western liberal liars in comment section.

www.defenseone.com/business/2023/11/…/392288/

nytimes.com/…/russia-sanctions-missile-production…

Also, I am somewhat concerned of allowing a dictatorship to just erase at it’s convenience a free and democratic country.

Last I checked, Russia did not erase any country. However, Blackrock, a private US firm, is acquiring and selling Ukraine’s land. You should be worried about US/NATO-backed Israel terrorist state that is genociding and erasing the country of Palestine.

Subject6051 OP ,

You should be worried about US/NATO-backed Israel terrorist state that is genociding and erasing the country of Palestine.

I don’t think you know the meaning of the word genocide. I have my own issues with Israel’s support for the settler occupation of West Bank, but in no may is Israel committing a genocide. The population nearly multiplied multiple folds since 1948. Israeli government fortunately has no will for a genocide of any people though they have the capability to commit one, while on the other hand you have the Nazis 2.0 who want to repeat the Holocaust but are incapable of repeating it for Israel is way too stronger than all their allies and themselves put together. If the shoe was on the other foot, there would be no jews in the middle east as the supposed peace partners of Israel themselves openly say they want to push the jews to the sea.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

What Israel is doing absolutely fits the definition of a genocide theguardian.com/…/un-official-resigns-israel-hama…

Subject6051 OP ,

UN is a fucking joke, they could not bring themselves to even condemn the massacre on Oct 7th. It’s stupid to take that organization even remotely seriously.

And, if your population multiplies every few decades, it’s stupid to suggest that there is a genocide going on. Israel doesn’t want a genocide and those who want one fortunately don’t have a nuclear weapon yet (I am not sure what Pakistan thinks abt this topic, but I am leaving them out of this)

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Here’s a Jewish historian with a PhD explaining what’s going on if you don’t trust the UN www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJkgzcRae3w

usernamesaredifficul ,

Russia. It’s a war of attrition and Russia has the manpower and industrial capacity

the west didn’t misread the situatiom because the west doesn’t care about Ukraine they just wanted to kill people

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