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Who's winning the war in Ukraine?

The media won’t give me great answers to this question and I think this I trust this community more, thus I want to know from you. Also, I have heard reports that Russia was winning the war, if that’s true, did the west miscalculate the situation by allowing diplomacy to take a backseat and allowing Ukraine to a large plethora of military resources?

PS: I realize there are many casualties on both sides and I am not trying to downplay the suffering, but I am curious as to how it is going for Ukraine. Right now I am hearing ever louder calls of Russia winning, those have existed forever, but they seem to have grown louder now, so I was wondering what you thought about it. Also, I am somewhat concerned of allowing a dictatorship to just erase at it’s convenience a free and democratic country.

bigkahuna1986 ,

The US Military Industrial Complex of course.

Subject6051 OP ,

100%! I think most people would agree with you there.

MedicPigBabySaver ,

This is exhibit “A” of how the U.S. fights it’s proxy wars.

They could provide enough support to kick the shit out of Russia.

But, the World politics doesn’t fit that twisted & ridiculous narrative.

I’m not a conspiracy type. However, it makes ZERO sense to me that the U.S. hasn’t provided everything possible to push Russia out.

IMO: actual full U.S. support pushing the limits of “war”, would end this insanity in short order.

Aidinthel ,

I’ve been following Professor Phillips Obrien for analysis on this subject, and he largely shares your opinion.

He thinks that if the US really wanted Ukraine to win the administration would have been providing much more long-range weapons, and that they still could. Ukraine can still win, but it depends on their allies actually helping them do that.

MedicPigBabySaver ,

It’s bizarre & frustrating. It’s crystal clear that NATO countries or EU countries could provide the support to help Ukraine kick the shit out of Russia.

My brain hurts wondering why it hasn’t happen. This shit really makes me believe in some type of stupid crap like Illuminati 😉

bioemerl ,

it makes ZERO sense to me that the U.S. hasn’t provided everything possible to push Russia out.

Israel

China

Venezuela getting prepared to invade one of its neighbors.

Couple of nations in Africa are getting ready to go to war too, I forget what the name of it was, Uganda? They're wanting to get a path to the ocean.

The United States needs to be ready not only to fight in Ukraine, but also about four other places in the world right now. I'm in full support of giving them everything possible, but there's a lot of valid reason not to go full of ham.

MedicPigBabySaver ,

Of course there are global crisis at any given time.

But, seriously, Russia has been the top antagonist for more than 70 years. The U.S. should be bashing the shit out of them.

D1G17AL ,

I believe you are thinking of Ethiopia going to war with Eritrea. Eritrea recently gained independence from Ethiopia and now the Ethiopians want a sea port again. Watch that turn into an Iran vs USA proxy war too.

wintermute_oregon ,

Didn’t see you reply but typed something very similar. We train the Ukraine army for combined arm warfare then we don’t supply them the combined arms. It’s like we want it to drag out.

jaidyn999 ,

Compare with the level of support israel has got. You can be certain people in Ukraine are.

mp3 ,
@mp3@lemmy.ca avatar

It’s mostly a war of attrition now, whoever can hold the stalemate longer than the other before everything unravels will win.

wintermute_oregon ,

Right now I am hearing ever louder calls of Russia winning, those have existed forever, but they seem to have grown louder now, so I was wondering what you thought about it.

Where are you hearing that? I have not heard that Russia is taking a pounding and so is Ukraine.

Right now, it’s a stalemate.

It is a war of attrition at this point and if it drags out long enough, Russia wins because they have more people to throw at the war.

I do not think the F-16 is going to make a large difference in the war. People who never served are the ones thinking it’ll change the war.

The question is how long can the Russian soldiers hold out? I do believe once Ukraine breaks through the lines will collapse quickly but they’ve yet to break through.

I do think NATO has done a disservice in training the Ukrainian military to fight a combined arms fight but then not supplying them with the weapons to fight a combined arms fight.

I personally think Ukraine will win but it is going to be a long fight.

doublejay1999 ,
@doublejay1999@lemmy.world avatar

Unlike everyone here, I have no idea.

Candelestine ,

Tbf the guy that said arms dealers is 100% correct.

My opinion is that Ukraine has a light-moderate advantage right now.

It mainly comes down to American and EU politics. If both aid packages pass, then Ukraine is in a good position to build up over the winter and continue slowly pushing to cut off Crimea, which is the biggest prize. Steadily growing air power is going to make a significant difference, we already saw recently how helpful Russia’s re-emerging air power was in grinding down the push across the Dnieper.

As an American I’m fairly confident our aid package will eventually pass. Tying it to Israeli aid is a punch below-the-belt, the repubs can’t back away from that. They’re in negotiations currently, probably stalling. Israel could really use that aid though…

My understanding of the EU aid is Hungary is being a pain, but there’s other tricks available in a big bureaucracy, so we’ll see. Maybe a European can fill that part in better.

Militarily the Russians are slowly and steadily pushing in the east. There’s nothing terribly important over there, but land is land, towns are towns. Their troop losses are high but they also have a high intake supposedly, so it’s possible they can keep this up for awhile. War materiel is continuously exhausting though, people may have noticed they are not shooting nearly as much artillery as they were in the initial parts of the war. But, you don’t actually need tanks and heavy equipment and shit per se, so, it’s a grinder. Their war support is starting to crack, but is still strong. They might have more mines than Ukraine does Ukrainians, so that’s annoying too.

The Ukrainians are digging in. Or at least that’s how it seems, they can be a little tricksey sometimes. They’re still ramping up though, building more forces. They have plenty of will and soldiers and grain, but need more money and materiel. The capture of the Russian side of the Dnieper was impressive though, that probably shouldn’t have happened. If they get the resources, they can probably win.

Oh, and the railroad between China and Russia blew up. No idea how that might’ve happened… Was the only one though.

weeeeum ,

Frankly, we don’t really know yet because we can’t predict what either side will do, or what concerns/problems are boiling away under the surface.

What’s important about real world events is that they are not like a board or video game. In a video game it doesn’t matter if you flawlessly KO your opponent or win by the tiniest sliver of health, a win is a win.

In the real world though the resources and lives poured into conflicts like these can very well be used for something more productive. At any moment russia could swallow their pride and pull out, but they could also fight to the last man to never admit defeat.

Additionally the methods of victory differ between Ukraine and her allies (the west).

The US and Europe want a swift victory to garner support from voters. So they push Ukraine to do risky offensives and maneuvers.

Ukraine on the other hand wants to play its cards very carefully. Right now they recognize for every Ukrainian casualty, there are multiple Russian casualties. They want to maintain that postive ratio and do not want risky or loss heavy offensives. You can see this mindset at work in Bahkmut. The west wanted Ukraine to pull out of Bahkmut immediately but Ukraine recognized the extremely favorable casualty ratios, with many Russian casualties for each Ukrainian which is why they held on so stubbornly. It wasn’t to hold Bahkmut, it was to grind down the Russian force.

My thumbs are dying so I’ll direct you to a very accurate and detailed source of info on the conflict. Check out William spaniel on YouTube, he is an author and has many videos on the conflict, outlining the goals and problems on each side.

Fizz ,
@Fizz@lemmy.nz avatar

Seems Russia is slowly grinding out Ukraine and if Russia decides to give up at any point or Ukraine negotiates then russia will probably have gained territory.

PlzGivHugs ,

The war is largely in a stalemate at the moment. Odds are, if this continues for years longer, Russia will eventually win just by virtue of having more people to send to die for the country, but if it comes to that, Russia will suffer far moreso than they already are, both due to increased strikes within Russia and just loosing the majority of their working population.

buh ,
@buh@hexbear.net avatar

me

NOT_RICK ,
@NOT_RICK@lemmy.world avatar

Seems like a stalemate at the moment but it could really go either way from what I can tell. It depends upon if the west will lose interest and cut back on support or if public opinion in Russia wanes towards wanting an end to the war. At the moment it seems neither side is willing to accept the current status quo.

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