When I was growing up in the 80s and 90s my Grandfather who served in WW2 kept guns in several closets and under two beds at least, and I also knew where the ammo was located. I knew to never mess with them but times sure have changed.
Nowadays I lock mine up responsibly and never loaded. I’ve not started giving my kids lessons though, since they’re not even 10 yet. We’ve talked about safety though. I think that education is super important.
I’ve thought about one of those hidey wall shelves but am a bit scared to have anything quick access that they could stumble upon.
How many children are watching Lockpickinglawyer AND have lockpicking tools AND have a steady enough hand to crack the locks that Lockpickinglawyer does? Going to guess that is near zero. The dude has also easily picked every common door lock but I’m willing to bet you still lock your doors.
And many front doors can be opened with trash like a paper clip and screw driver. How many kids do you see going around and lockpicking their neighbors?
Seriously. You can open most front door locks with a paper clip and a screw driver. I’m going to guess people like this still have a lock on their door.
That’s for the best to educate them. It’s totally possible one of their friends has unsecured firearms in their house. Better to know it’s something serious and to leave them alone.
Social media isn’t a search engine. If an article is referring to someone by name in the title, they almost certainly have a Wikipedia page the questioner could read rather than requesting random strangers on a message board provide answers for them (in the form of multiple answers of varying bias and accuracy).
Wanting to learn isn’t the problem, it’s not spending the tiniest bit of personal effort before requesting service from other people.
He’s a degen gambler who admits in his book he was gambling up to $10k a day while running 538… It never made him go “huh maybe I fucked my employees because I’m a degen gambler.”
Nate is not with 538 anymore. Disney didn’t renew his contract. However, he got to keep the model that he developed and publishes it for his newsletter subscribers. 538 had to rebuild their model from scratch this year with G Elliot Morris.
Now Nate hosts the podcast Risky Business with Maria Konnikova. The psychologist who became a professional poker player while researching a book. It’s pretty good.
Polling guru Nate Silver and his election prediction model gave Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the electoral college in an update to his latest election forecast on Sunday, after a NYT-Siena College poll found Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 percentage point.
He’s just a guy analizing the polls. The source is Fox News. He mentions in the article that tomorrow’s debate could make that poll not matter.
Should you trust Nate or polls? They’re fun but… Who is answering these polls? Who wants to answer them before even October?
So yeah take it seriously that a poll found that a lot of support for Trump exists. But it’s just a moment of time for whoever they polled. Tomorrow’s response will be a much better indication of any momentum.
It just seems strange because I don’t think that many people are on the fence. Perhaps I’m crazy, but I feel most people know exactly who they’re voting for already. Makes me wonder how valid this cross-section was that was used as the sample set. If it accurately represents the US, including undecided voters, then… 😮
but I feel most people know exactly who they’re voting for already
The cross-section of people you know are more politically off the fence than the entire nation. Those that aren’t online at all are also more undecided and less likely to interact with you.
There’s a Trump undercount in polling: Trump voters don’t trust “MSM” and therefore don’t answer calls from pollsters, or are embarrassed to admit they will vote for him.
I don’t know many people (boomers and younger) who answer the phone from numbers they do not recognize. I would like to imagine that the people who do answer strange numbers tend to be out of touch. Bias in the polls to fools or the lucky who are not spammed ?
The key to doing statistics well is to make sure you aren't changing the results with any bias. This means enough samples, a good selection of samples, and weighing the outcome correctly. Even honest polling in pre-election is hard to get right, and because of that it's easy to make things lean towards results if you want to get certain results, or or getting paid to get those results.
There's only one poll that matters, and that poll should include as large of a sample as possible, and be counted correctly. Even though some will try to prevent that from happening.
People who fetishize self defense carry will always have loaded and unlocked guns in the house because they are afraid of someone breaking in at any moment and they might need to play John Wick: Home Edition. Those kinds of people also teach gun safety because they think responsible handling of firearms is important.
They just don’t understand that accidents are far more likely than a home invasion, and children are children even if they are taught gun safety.
I wonder if someone were to dress as an IDF soldier, use their ammunition, and go kill some Americans in Israel…how long would they get away with it? Like how long would America and the IDF just say “Ah that’s just classic Israeli soldiers doing what they do best.”
Infidel defilers. They shall all drown in lakes of blood. Now they will know why they are afraid of the dark. Now they will learn why they fear the night.
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