Polls mean nothing, the trends on polls aren’t guaranteed if people get complacent and don’t turn out. Voter apathy is the worst thing that can happen to Dems in this election
From a Politico article, we can see how the Russians are starting to talk about Harris. The Republicans aren’t usually far behind…
“Kamala with the nuclear button is worse than a monkey with a grenade,” Andrei Sidorov, the dean of the global politics department at Moscow State University (a once highly respected institution) said Sunday evening on state television’s prime weekly talk show.
Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
National polls go beyond meaninglessness and into actual harm. The national popular vote does not elect the president, as we all should know too well. My vote in Illinois is worth far less than someone's vote in Wyoming. Your vote in California is worth far less than someone's vote in Alaska.
Unless a national poll weights responses based on state, and based on the electoral college results from states, it is completely misleading.
Well yeah, that would be a disappointment to anyone, he lost in a popularity contest by 3 million votes to Hillary fucking Clinton. He absolutely deserves to feel bad about it and I hope he remembers every day that he wouldn’t have won if it weren’t for the electoral college.
Just saw Oklahoma has one of the lowest voter turn outs in the nation. With Tulsa and Oklahoma city it’s more progressive than most people realize. We’ve just got to get out and vote and convince those around us to do the same. I know we have the numbers to win local elections.
Just saw Oklahoma has one of the lowest voter turn outs in the nation.
Probably because you’re not allowed to vote if someone from your party isn’t running. We have a county sheriff race that was just decided by drawing a name out of a hat. Dems didn’t get a vote.
Lots of downticket races can be swung by a popular presidential nominee.
That said, Oklahoma’s awash in O&G money and its state bureaucrats are notoriously corrupt. At some point, the sheer volume of gerrymandering, vote caging, and criminal disenfranchisement needs to be addressed. Simply shouting at people to “GO VOTE!” when they’re getting handed broken machines and defective butterfly ballots and threatening robocalls isn’t helping anyone, least of all the candidates they’re hoping will win.
The mainstream professional polls have been reliable for some time. They typically get within 2-3pt margin of error when taken a few days before the election, and they serve as a useful bellweather to track public sentiment. In this case, it appears jettisoning Biden is bringing voters back to the Dem fold. That’s what Dems were banking on, and I’d consider it a good thing given how much I don’t want Trump to be President.
Vote like they don’t exist.
People who obsessively follow polling are the ones most likely to vote.
Stepping aside may honestly be the single greatest show of leadership Biden has done in his lifetime. If the polls are swinging, it’s as much due to him making such a historical and respectable move as it is people surprised and refreshed by Kamala Harris.
100% agree. Polls also don’t really account for voter suppression tactics, or gerrymandering and other GOP fuckery, so absolutely vote because our democracy is literally at stake here.
Our future generations will be impacted by the outcome of this specific election.
To be fair, your vote statistically doesn’t matter in some states. I’ll make a bet with somebody that if I don’t vote in my state it won’t change anything.
Federal, maybe, but it’s still important to vote for down ticket races, and your presidential vote can at least be a statistic toward the popular vote count. I get what you mean though, I’m from a consistently blue state.
I tend to wonder how these polls are conducted and who is answering them? Does anyone get polls via email or text? Are they still just calling people? I’m in my 40s and basically no one I know my age or younger answers numbers they don’t know anymore, and texts are ignored or flat out blocked because if you respond, they barrage you later, or at least that’s what we all assume.
So I’m not convinced polls have any bearing on what will happen anymore. VOTE!
Other polls I had seen just yesterday (likely collected before Biden dropping out was a reality) still had Trump with a 1% or more lead over Harris, so they’re really all over the place and I wouldn’t trust them for much, even up to and including election day. I’m not breathing a sigh of relief until victory is declared, and even then, I wouldn’t be so sure.
This. You can’t forget what their plan was. They changed course somewhat, but Kamala is the never-Trump candidate. I expect her to do better than Biden, but they are still full of shit.