“We realized the reason voters want Biden to step down is because Harris is his running mate. So we replaced her with the only Democrat in existence less popular than Biden, and the only person in existence to have lost to the Toupee in an election: Hillary Clinton. It’s her turn.” - Dem leadership.
The more those clowns try to push Biden out, the more I want him to stay in. He’s unlikely to beat Trump, but so is anyone else they have any likelihood of nominating.
I don’t have the information to know whether-or-not swapping out Biden is the right move. That’s a technical question that depends on data that I don’t have visibility into, dunno what voting preference is at a state level versus Trump.
But I will say this – if the Democrats are gonna pull the trigger and run someone else, they better do it really quickly if they intend to do so, or stick with Biden. Because any such potential candidate is going to already have their campaign period be very abbreviated.
Like, if they’re serious, I think they should set a date now, one not far down the road, and say that if they haven’t committed to someone else by that date, then they go with Biden. Otherwise, they run the risk of both killing Biden’s campaign and not giving the successor enough time to campaign. Like, this either needs to be done really soon or not happen and be permanently put to bed.
Not too surprising. The dumbshits blamed Mark Violets who is not an actual person and said it was the work of antifa. There is an Italian soccer blogger named Marco Violi which somehow was confused for the shooter despite being in Rome. If you see someone claiming the shooter was a member of antifa, they are repeating this laughable conspiracy.
Have you seen her polling? I’m going to be voting for whoever wears the D on the ballot but I am extremely concerned about her ability to get a good voter turn out.
And, while I do also think Biden isn’t able to win he has been a solid president.
So, you’re okay with it taking 2.5 years to get a special prosecutor going for an insurrectionist and a guy who very clearly took nuclear secrets and blatantly violated the national espionage act?
2.5 years to force the matter if getting nuclear secrets and other extremely sensitive materials back- and they still are missing documents?!
Kamala Harris has less chance of winning than Biden does. Nobody has ever been a big fan of Kamala Harris. She's not popular based on actions or personality, she's a cop, she's a woman, and she's not white.
If the intention is to truly get someone who will win more reliably than Biden, it's going to have to be another old white guy. Or at least a white guy.
Let’s get one caveat out of the way: We don’t have that many public polls testing Harris against Trump. From April 1 through July 2, just over a dozen polls asked about this alternative matchup. But we do have polls from all the major swing states, thanks largely to tracking from Morning Consult, and we have enough national surveys to calculate a Harris-versus-Trump national polling average — and thus to forecast how she would perform in states without any polls.
For the most part, national polls have shown Harris doing about the same as Biden in head-to-head polls against Trump. In a March Fox News poll for example, Trump led Harris by 6 points and Biden by 5 points (well within the survey’s margin of error). And as recently as June 28, a Data for Progress poll showed the president and vice president each losing to Trump by 3 points (also within the margin of error). That said, a June 28-30 CNN/SSRS poll found Harris losing to Trump by only 2 points while Biden was trailing by 6. This was also within the margin of error but was nonetheless a bigger gap and could mark the beginning of a shift for Harris.
When we plug all these polls into a polls-only version of the 538 forecasting model — which jettisons the economic and political priors our full model uses, giving us an apples-to-apples comparison between candidates — Harris has a slightly higher chance of winning the Electoral College than Biden, but it’s not a significant difference: 38-in-100 versus 35-in-100. On a state-by-state level, Biden looks stronger than Harris in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Harris’s odds are higher than Biden’s in Nevada.
Harris also does slightly better than Biden in our forecast of the national popular vote. The model forecasts that Trump would outpace Harris nationally by 1.5 points, while he would outrun Biden by 2.1 points. However, this could be an artifact of our model not having any Harris-versus-Trump polls that include independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who tends to take slightly more votes away from Democrats than Republicans when included in a poll.
However, Harris’s popular-vote edge is almost entirely negated by the bigger Electoral College bias against her. In our polls-only forecast pairing Biden against Trump, the Democratic candidate needs to win the popular vote by just 1.1 points to win the presidency. That’s thanks to Biden doing better in Pennsylvania, the likeliest tipping-point state in our model. Harris, by contrast, would need to win the popular vote by 3.5-4 points to win Pennsylvania and, with it, the Electoral College.
However, whether Harris would truly be a stronger candidate than Biden also depends on information besides the polls. In our full forecast model — which includes a variety of non-polling economic and political variables, which we call the “fundamentals” — Harris does much worse than Biden across the board. Whereas Biden has a 48-in-100 chance to win the Electoral College, Harris has only a 31-in-100 chance.
This is thanks in large part to the boost our model confers on Biden as the incumbent president, which is worth an extra point for Biden over Harris in our fundamentals-only forecast of the national popular vote. However, one factor our model does not consider is whether presidents’ approval rating and economic growth impact incumbents running for reelection more than non-incumbents running from the same party, and that may actually push Harris’s numbers over Biden’s. In other words, your mileage may vary depending on how much you believe that Biden should get a boost because he’s the sitting president. There is no objectively correct answer here; one of the reasons election forecasting is hard is that it requires judgment calls like these.
I love this idea. Open primaries are how it should be. Let the blue team do something dynamic and engaging while depriving the orange guy of his beloved spotlight AND showing the population it is least somewhat self aware.
So how did this get turned into three charges? The article didn’t explain that.
I want justice for this woman’s family but I hate how our system allows fifty different charges for one or a handful of crimes. Murdering one person should be one murder charge, not three, and not murder plus homicide plus manslaughter plus killing a person plus death by bullet plus turning a person into a corpse; you get what I mean.
I think the “extra” charges are often used to put someone who’s clearly a danger to society away for longer. Another example I can think of that’s similar is someone going to jail for CSAM gets a separate charge for every frame of video, as they’re separate “images”. I agree that the law should be more straightforward but there are instances where nuance can be helpful.
Howell described Dykes’ case as one of the most egregious she has seen among Jan. 6 defendants. Dykes, a former marine, had previously been arrested for his involvement in the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, and had been on a path of escalating violence and adherence to white supremacist extremist views before Jan. 6.
On the day of the attack, Dykes ripped down fencing that helped the mob advance to the Capitol, wrenched a riot shield out of the hands of a police officer and then watched as the outnumbered police line guarding the rotunda doors collapsed. Inside the Capitol, Dykes joined a concerted push by a large crowd attempting to breach a police line outside the Senate chamber.
“She’s going to need help,” he said, noting she won’t be eligible for social security because she has been incarcerated for so long.
FFS she’s owed a hell of a lot more than social security! 😠 The court should also order the state to pay her a huge damages payment that will afford a comfortable income for the rest of her life.
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