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Who's winning the war in Ukraine?

The media won’t give me great answers to this question and I think this I trust this community more, thus I want to know from you. Also, I have heard reports that Russia was winning the war, if that’s true, did the west miscalculate the situation by allowing diplomacy to take a backseat and allowing Ukraine to a large plethora of military resources?

PS: I realize there are many casualties on both sides and I am not trying to downplay the suffering, but I am curious as to how it is going for Ukraine. Right now I am hearing ever louder calls of Russia winning, those have existed forever, but they seem to have grown louder now, so I was wondering what you thought about it. Also, I am somewhat concerned of allowing a dictatorship to just erase at it’s convenience a free and democratic country.

Scary_le_Poo ,
@Scary_le_Poo@beehaw.org avatar

It’s not a stalemate, but it’s close. Ukraine keeps gaining ground, but it’s essentially ww1 style trench warfare.

Russia has reportedly been losing as much as 900 soldiers per day which is staggering.

The Russians mined everything like crazy when retreating so and forward progress is going to be quite measured.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Russia has gained more ground during Ukraine’s offensive than Ukraine did. Even western media admits this.

Diva ,
@Diva@lemmy.ml avatar

Considering this is a war of attrition, “winning” such as it is doesn’t look like conscripting every man, woman and child that can hold a gun to get blown up in trenches. They should have just negotiated a year ago.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

And they were very close to doing just that until the west stepped in and told Ukraine to stop negotiating aaronmate.net/…/ukraines-top-negotiator-confirms

Diva ,
@Diva@lemmy.ml avatar

I wish it wasn’t paywalled, I remember being hopeful something might happen but then Boris showed up- people still talk about it, just not always in english.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Bojo sabotaging the negotiations was a heinous crime against humanity. Hundreds of thousands of people died as a result and millions more had their lives ruined.

FluffyPotato ,

Britain has the geopolitical relevance of the North Sentinel island and Boris can’t even control his hair not to mention a foreign nation. Even if he told Ukraine to not negotiate why would they listen?

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Because Boris is just the messenger boy for the empire.

FluffyPotato ,

But why? The US has plenty of people to deliver a message like that that would actually be believable, like if Boris told another country that the US wants this or that it just would sound like he’s lying. This whole thing sounds too convoluted and ridiculous to be true.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

I mean that’s what Ukrainian chief negotiator told us himself now, and this is what western media admits. UK has always acted as a running dog for the US, and I’m not sure why anybody would find the idea of Boris being the one to deliver the terms to Ukraine as a representative of NATO convoluted or ridiculous. Boris represents the country that’s most closely aligned in US in Europe, this makes him the natural person to go and tell Ukraine what NATO and US want from them. You seem to be making this more complicated than it is.

hemko ,

Death is the winner of any war

jaamesbaxterr ,

Don’t forget the defense contractors. People who make and sell weaponry and other war products are always the biggest winners.

hemko ,

Oh, they have nothing against the void. All of them will die.

jaamesbaxterr ,

True. Death is the great equalizer. Nobody gets out of this world alive. Lol

SplashJackson ,

Astronauts might

m532 ,

Usa has been diverting its weapons supplies to its holocaust in palestine. Most of ukrainian weapons production is in the east, which is no longer under their control. I’d assume they will run out of weapons sooner or later.

bouh ,

It’s mostly a stalemate for now. The dam destruction helped Russia funnel Ukraine counterattack on its biggest fortifications, so not much progress for Ukraine in the south. Russia resumed its offensive in the Dombass and Aavdiivka is starting to look like the new Bhakmut.

It’s an attrition war and Russia is losing like 2 or 3 times as much as Ukraine in men or material. But Russia has much more men than Ukraine. Russian morale is very low, but Ukraine support from the west is under big pressure, both from Russian propaganda and conservative/fascist political parties. This last one is the real war happening now.

Next year will be important because of the elections in the US. What happen on the battlefield is still to be seen.

MooseGas ,
@MooseGas@kbin.social avatar

Economically, Russia has also been hit hard. NATO has also expanded, which is a blow to Russia.

bouh ,

Yes, but Russia is also supported by Iran and China. And there’s no sign of political collapse in Russia.

I’m not saying Russia is winning. It would take them a millenia to conquer Ukraine at this pace. But I think currently they are only buying time to wait for US election. After that, and depending on whether a breakthrough happen or not before that, peace talk may happen, or not. Time will tell.

prex ,
GivingEuropeASpook ,
@GivingEuropeASpook@hexbear.net avatar

Truly the only trustworthy source

DeathWearsANecktie ,

As others have said, it’s a war of attrition. There’s no end in sight. As it stands, we can only speculate on who is winning. Russia have so far failed to make any significant gains, and Ukraine have so far failed to push the Russians out.

It’s a bit like the stalemates of trench warfare in WW1. Something will have to give eventually.

Gosplan14_the_Third ,
@Gosplan14_the_Third@hexbear.net avatar

Or, the fighting will eventually stop and the current status quo will remain permanent. It’s hard to tell.

Valmond ,

That’s probably the only outcome that will never happen. Russia will re-attack again (as seen 2008, 2014, etc etc).

GivingEuropeASpook ,
@GivingEuropeASpook@hexbear.net avatar

It’s like the trenches of WWI combined with the forever wars the US fought in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Congratulations Russia, you’ve saddled yourself with a decades long conflict potentially and lost the geopolitical purpose of invading Ukraine within months since Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership.

PosadistInevitablity ,
@PosadistInevitablity@hexbear.net avatar

Ukraine eventually would have invaded Russian lands under a pretense that Russia had attacked first.

Western media would have covered for this. How exactly could Russia have avoided this war of Western aggression?

Sinister Bot ,
@Sinister@hexbear.net avatar

Sweden and Finland were part of the EU defense clause. They were already defacto NATO members. Sweden even was constantly aggressive towards russia before the Ukraine war.

Now the Americans can openly build their bases. The welfare states of these two nations will certainly decline as well. The presence of american bases, curiously leads to the same economic policies each time.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmygrad.ml avatar

It’s a war of attrition that Ukraine is losing because they have a much smaller population to draw on and rely on weapons from the west. Ukraine is already conscripting children, women, and the elderly now. It’s absurd to think that such conscripts are going to be able to hold off a seasoned professional army for long.

Microw ,

If Russia actually had a “seasoned professional army”, this war would already be over. Russia is putting inexperienced youths from underdeveloped regions at the front line because their elite doesnt want to fight.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmygrad.ml avatar

I recommend reading what people who actually have a clue have to say on the subject www.russiamatters.org/…/whats-ahead-war-ukraine

Wahots ,
@Wahots@pawb.social avatar

You probably shouldn’t be getting your news from randos on the internet. Literally anyone can post here.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=iHrZRJR4igQ

Subject6051 OP ,

I mean, this isn’t a very important piece of news for me, so, I am just looking at the consensus here.

TheAnonymouseJoker ,
@TheAnonymouseJoker@lemmy.ml avatar

Russia is successfully and deservedly shitting on all of NATO’s weaponry, warfare and weapon manufacturing capabilities. They won the war long ago, now it is just being dragged. I see a lot of western liberal liars in comment section.

www.defenseone.com/business/2023/11/…/392288/

nytimes.com/…/russia-sanctions-missile-production…

Also, I am somewhat concerned of allowing a dictatorship to just erase at it’s convenience a free and democratic country.

Last I checked, Russia did not erase any country. However, Blackrock, a private US firm, is acquiring and selling Ukraine’s land. You should be worried about US/NATO-backed Israel terrorist state that is genociding and erasing the country of Palestine.

Subject6051 OP ,

You should be worried about US/NATO-backed Israel terrorist state that is genociding and erasing the country of Palestine.

I don’t think you know the meaning of the word genocide. I have my own issues with Israel’s support for the settler occupation of West Bank, but in no may is Israel committing a genocide. The population nearly multiplied multiple folds since 1948. Israeli government fortunately has no will for a genocide of any people though they have the capability to commit one, while on the other hand you have the Nazis 2.0 who want to repeat the Holocaust but are incapable of repeating it for Israel is way too stronger than all their allies and themselves put together. If the shoe was on the other foot, there would be no jews in the middle east as the supposed peace partners of Israel themselves openly say they want to push the jews to the sea.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

What Israel is doing absolutely fits the definition of a genocide theguardian.com/…/un-official-resigns-israel-hama…

Subject6051 OP ,

UN is a fucking joke, they could not bring themselves to even condemn the massacre on Oct 7th. It’s stupid to take that organization even remotely seriously.

And, if your population multiplies every few decades, it’s stupid to suggest that there is a genocide going on. Israel doesn’t want a genocide and those who want one fortunately don’t have a nuclear weapon yet (I am not sure what Pakistan thinks abt this topic, but I am leaving them out of this)

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Here’s a Jewish historian with a PhD explaining what’s going on if you don’t trust the UN www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJkgzcRae3w

Ciel ,
@Ciel@lemmygrad.ml avatar

the us military industrial complex’s investors seems to be winning real good

Ilovethebomb ,

Let me guess, can’t bring yourself to say Russia is winning?

Subject6051 OP ,

I mean, I don’t want Russia to win, but I have no problem with accepting facts where I see them. I think almost everyone here would agree that both the countries involved have lost much more than they can ever gain out of this war.

Valmond ,

Russia is totally burning through crazy amounts of men and material, at an unsustainable level, without any advancements. So there is absolutely no “Russia wins” on the horizon.

I also think that Ukrainian freedom is what Ukraine thinks is worth more than anything.

lolcatnip ,

More to the point, Ukrainian freedom isn’t the empty, abstract “freedom” you see so many American politicians talk about. It’s freedom from Russian rule, and since the start of the war, Russia has been showing us exactly how much that kind of freedom is worth.

wewbull ,

You make it sound like this is a voluntary war for both sides, but it’s not. Only Russia chose to invade Ukraine, and they can choose to go back home and end it tomorrow. Ukraine is fighting because it was attacked and it’s people are still living under occupation.

java ,

did the west miscalculate the situation by allowing diplomacy to take a backseat and allowing Ukraine to a large plethora of military resources?

a large plethora of military resources

No. The West failed to provide Ukraine with sufficient military resources. While the monetary value of military aid may seem substantial when compared to your bank account, the reality is that Russia possesses greater resources and capabilities.

Subject6051 OP ,

I am kinda split on the issue. I am ok with Ukraine getting more resources as it makes sense for the west to make Ukraine fight their own battles, but at the same time, I really wish there was a ceasefire to the fighting.

Valmond ,

Putin would love a ceasefire. So that he can restructure for the next attack.

java ,

A ceasefire was established after the 2014 invasion, but now we find ourselves in the midst of a full-scale invasion. This underscores the significance of ensuring Putin’s military and political defeat. It is crucial to send a clear message to China (and other potential aggressors) that invading Taiwan would be bad for them. The modern world is intricately interconnected and highly complex, there are no simple solutions to its problems. Unfortunately, many people struggle to accept this reality, leading to the rise of populists.

Omega_Haxors , (edited )

Real answer: Who cares. Since when did your life ever improve because the results of a war?

EDIT: Saying the quiet part out loud. Wars were never for your own comfort, only for your enemy’s blood.

Kissaki ,

You think it’s only about improving life?

Subject6051 OP ,

If the incentive structure is such that it incentivizes nations invading other sovereign nations, there can be no peace.

Silverseren ,

It's a stalemate, largely. While Russia was massively on the backfoot earlier in the year, they mined massive swaths of eastern Ukraine before partially retreating.

Which makes it unlikely for Russia to actually have any future forward progress, but it also stymies Ukraine from doing the same except extremely slowly. There's still been several victories for Ukraine over the past few months, but they haven't changed the fighting area much.

It's largely a war of attrition to wear down Russia now, who has been having more and more internal issues as time goes on.

BakedGoods ,

Lots of idiots in this thread. The barbaric eastern threat will be dealt with.

lntl ,

arms manufacturers

ThatFembyWho ,

Came here to say this.

winners: arms manufacturers and dealers, “defense” industry, military-industrial complex

losers: soldiers, civilians

Carighan ,
@Carighan@lemmy.world avatar

Add people like Putin, oligarchs, etc. To losers, add just about everyone else, the climate, any actually important social or economic program as billions of money are burned on an unnecessary pyre for someone’s ego, etc etc etc.

ThatFembyWho ,

Is Putin really a winner tho? They almost had a coup. I mean if the war was going amazingly well, but their economy is shit, they’re isolated, and they are in stale mate with an enemy they should dominate…

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