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kibiz0r ,

1: The Sahm recession indicator triggered in July. Now both this and the Kantro indicator are signaling that a recession already started. Both have a near perfect record since 1970.

2: How the ‘strong’ US economy feels for poorer Americans, in five charts

3:

https://midwest.social/pictrs/image/6cb917e5-2493-404c-88fb-858ffa9a8afb.png

SteveFromMySpace , (edited )

Ok let me preface this by saying every single person experiencing homelessness deserves the security of a roof over their head and more.

<150,000 is surprisingly low to me.

Is this nationwide? The upward trend is concerning no doubt, clearly something is wrong is more people are experiencing chronic homelessness at a rapidly rising rate. But honest to god I am shocked to see it isn’t at least 1-2mill nationwide.

Edit: thinking about it now 1 in 300 would be pretty high

Daxtron2 ,

It is a notoriously hard metric to track

SteveFromMySpace ,

Yeah and my 1-2mill would mean 1 in 150-300 which would be pretty high tbh

LustyArgonianMana ,
@LustyArgonianMana@lemmy.world avatar

But think of all the people you know living in vans and campers. For me, these days that’s a lot of people. I really don’t think that’s enough either

CoffeeJunkie ,

Why don’t they just go door to… ah, nevermind.

Kecessa , (edited )

That last chart uses “raw” numbers but it needs to be compared using per 100k or something of the sort

PagPag ,

It was triggered today… and has had only two false positives since 1959.

What most people don’t know is that the economist who coined the term, Claudia Sahm, proposed this rule as a way to warn governments to allow them to preemptively send out stimulus to their population lol.

The Sahm rule originates from a chapter in the Brookings Institution’s report on the use of fiscal policy to stabilize the economy during recessions.

(en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_Rule#cite_note-2)The chapter, written by Sahm, proposes fiscal policy to automatically send stabilizing payments to citizens to boost economic well-being. Instead of relying on human intuition to determine when such payments should be sent, Sahm outlines a condition to trigger the payments.

(en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_Rule#cite_note-:1-3) The trigger suggested indicates an economy beginning a recession and is now known as the Sahm rule. The Sahm rule recession indicator was also featured early in a Goldman Sachs U.S. economic research report by economist William C. Dudley with a recommended trigger of 0.33%

(en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_Rule#cite_note-4) (the nowadays more commonly used rule triggers a recession signal when the Sahm metric is crossing above 0.5%).

circuitfarmer ,
@circuitfarmer@lemmy.sdf.org avatar

Stock market gains or shareholder gains mean absolutely shit to the average american.

If I can’t afford housing and bread, shit isn’t good. Let’s change how we report on the economy.

Omgboom ,

With the most recent employment numbers, things are about to get worse

Empricorn , (edited )

I dare you to post a wage gap chart. Who gives a fuck if the “country” is growing financially, if like 60 billionaires take more of it??

Venator ,

Also doesn’t even actually help the country grow financially if if all goes to a tax haven…

Pyr_Pressure ,

There’s the “economy” and then there’s the real economy. The one that affects the 1% and the one that affects the 99%.

The 1% love the current “economy”.

The 99% hate the current economy.

henfredemars ,

The economy as reported is a measure of rich people sentiment, not a measure of how we’re doing.

chemicalwonka ,
@chemicalwonka@discuss.tchncs.de avatar

No, no, the economy goes very well to the bourgeois elite that controls the state.The workers who are getting worse and worse.

Communism-15592290

cyborganism ,

It’s going well for anyone making capital gains. It sucks for anyone else earning a fucking wage.

Lemming6969 ,

I’m sure there is a different metric that could be reported then, like adjusted buying power.

KyuubiNoKitsune ,

Yeah, corporations are doing great, the “economy” is a good indication of that, but it means fuck all for us.

AshMan85 ,

Gilded age 2.0

APassenger ,

I’m ready for progressive Roosevelt-types and I’m voting as hard as I can to get them. I’ll take Teddy, I’ll take FDR, I’ll take Eleanor.

I just want someone scrappy enough to succeed on our behalf.

Icalasari ,

I just want things to hurry up and get to the stage where rich investors start jumping from windows again because even the stock market can't hide shit anymore

BallsandBayonets ,

I don’t think we’ll see that again, at least not voluntarily. A crash of that magnitude almost happened in 2008, but the corporate owned government bailed out the failed businesses. And now, the owner class is even more heavily invested in real estate, so even if the stock market tanks, having a captive market on a human right means they always have a way to steal from the workers.

AshMan85 ,

Well… teddy with out the racism and genocide, preferably lol

jubilationtcornpone ,

“Space travel” is the new “Build a house so big it can hold the the entire population of Newport.”

FlashMobOfOne ,
@FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world avatar

It doesn’t matter that the economy is growing if it isn’t lifting up your life as well. Hundreds of millions of people still live in US states where it’s legal to pay $7 an hour. (2/3 of them) All of us are dealing with rampant inflation and crippling costs for utilities, housing, and food.

The government’s position on this is that the Biden Administration has created 16,000,000 jobs, and while that may be true, I’d wager my savings that most of those are second and third jobs, because it’s become impossible to live with just one in the United States of America.

APassenger ,

I’d wager my savings that most of those are second and third jobs, because it’s become impossible to live with just one in the United States of America.

I’ve wondered this as well - and wondered if Biden ever really grokked what’s happening. Hopefully others do and they follow through once they win (if they do).

FlashMobOfOne ,
@FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world avatar

Biden ever really grokked what’s happening

I don’t think anyone at the federal does. If they do, they simply don’t care, judging by their actions.

We’re about to hit 20 years of the minimum wage being $7 at the federal level, across three administrations, two of which were Democratic with control of Congress. I expect more of the same no matter who we elect in the fall.

ironhydroxide ,

I’d wager my savings

Well if you’re like most sub 35yr olds, that’s not a big wager at all.

FlashMobOfOne ,
@FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world avatar

That’s a really depressing statistic. I wish we could get everyone under 40 to vote differently, but I don’t think we can.

Krauerking ,

I’m always really disturbed when I see how much value and assets and savings I am supposed to have…

Like depressed too but really fucking disturbed that neither I nor basically anyone I know except once rich kid who his parents paid for everything while he got a $200,000 a year coding job have any legitimate savings or plans to be able to grow it.

And it’s not like I haven’t been working for the last 2 decades since I was 14.

BrotherL0v3 ,

Well yeah. Who gives a fuck about a 2% increase in the GDP? Prices are high and wages are low.

SteveFromMySpace , (edited )

“Wages and salaries increased 5.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2024 and increased 4.7 percent a year ago. Benefit costs increased 4.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2024.The prior year’s increase was 5.2 percent.”

I cannot speak to your individual case or where you live or respective industry. But “wages are low“ is incredibly reductionist. They’re up ~9.8% over 2 years.

It’s also important to remember that the entire world is hurting as we are emerging from a near recession/massive economic disruption due to Covid. The US has actually had a better story than many of its peers.

That being said I would never argue we have a healthy economy. I just think your particular characterization is flawed. Income inequality is still skyrocketing as it has been for about 20 years. Arguably 50. But “skyrocketing” wouldn’t apply entirely to 1980-2010

FlashMobOfOne ,
@FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world avatar

In 2/3 of the US states it’s still legal to pay someone $7 an hour.

5.1% of $7 an hour is 35 cents.

Don’t spend it all in one place, I guess.

BossDj ,

Less than 2% of the population is making minimum wage. Median income is more than double minimum wage. Even in rural areas

I agree it’s not enough, should be raised and all that, but it’s not the reality (because that number is so ridiculous)

FlashMobOfOne ,
@FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world avatar

I agree it’s not enough

shrugs

5.1% of $14 is 70 cents an hour. $28 bucks a week.

Don’t spend it all in one place.

This economy is objectively atrocious for working people. I’m glad we can connect on the fact that it is most definitely not enough.

ReallyActuallyFrankenstein ,

This seems like an unnecessary debate, because it’s the wrong metric for “fair” pay.

I think the better metric is something like average employee pay ratio to C-suite pay, or something calculated compared to the stock market value, like market capitalization.

Because the biggest problem is that absolute and year-to-year value created by increased productivity is going to the bosses and owners at an unfairly disproportionate rate.

FlashMobOfOne ,
@FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world avatar

Agreed.

The only upside in this economy is that it’s so bad, and there’s so little leadership for workers at the federal level, that it’s forced unions to become stronger by necessity.

SteveFromMySpace ,

$14.50

BossDj ,

Shrugs? Well fuck data I guess

capital ,

You get that a lot on Lemmy in regards to these topics.

They really don’t like it when you compare them to conservatives denying covid.

Anecdotal evidence is trash except when it’s their anecdotes. Then it’s second to none.

SteveFromMySpace ,

He’ll keep using those of us who actually worked minimum wage jobs as a cudgel to fight on the internet because of how it ~ feels ~. You can count on it.

He also doesn’t know what the federal minimum wage is apparently and thinks “more than double” is somehow $14. Strong math skills on that one.

FlashMobOfOne ,
@FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world avatar

And you will keep being a pedant about it and just ignore that those extra pennies, just like the 5.1% referenced earlier in the thread, don’t add up to anything when you’re not being paid a living wage to begin with.

What I don’t understand is why you’re angrier with me than you are at Democrats and Republicans.

SteveFromMySpace ,

I’m not angry, I’m having a perfectly nice Saturday morning

FlashMobOfOne ,
@FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world avatar

On wages, exactly.

A small percent of a poverty wage is objectively worth criticism, if we’re putting it nicely. If we want to talk in percentages, you’d need a 400% increase on the minimum wage in Mississippi to get to a living wage.

That’s why I’m criticizing this reply.

BossDj ,

Sorry but I’m criticizing your initial reply to the fact that wage increases are statistically high. Yes, 70 cents raise is a lot for a grocery worker. And it’s especially important, as OP said, when compared to the rest of the world US is rising faster.

The “2/3 of states” reply, while factual, was misleading as well as tangential to the original point you were replying to.

Idealism has an important place, but not when it results in pure cynicism

BlorpTheHagraven ,

It’s only a lot for a grocery worker if cost-of-living is similarly low. It is not.

BossDj ,

That wasn’t my opinion. It’s statistically a higher percent raise than average.

DudeImMacGyver ,
@DudeImMacGyver@sh.itjust.works avatar

More than double is still woefully inadequate. A study from over a decade ago showed that people need to make an average of $75,000 a year to get by in America, it’s more now.

SteveFromMySpace , (edited )

$7.25. It’s not easy to live on.

Gigasser ,

Easy? Probably not enough! So many people have 2nd jobs just to make ends meet!

DudeImMacGyver ,
@DudeImMacGyver@sh.itjust.works avatar

not easy impossible

FTFY

SteveFromMySpace ,

Yeah I only made it work living with a friend of mine.

MutilationWave ,

I did too… almost 20 years ago with multiple roommates. My friend is making $12 and he had to move back in with his parents. This is in a very low cost of living state.

sp3tr4l , (edited )

Housing (homes and apartments) is either in yet another bubble, or I guess just going to permanently remain absurdly high, slowly filtering more and more people into homelessness and death.

EDIT: (derp i fucked it up, EDIT 2)

Average rent vs median wage, cpi adjusted, and indexed to 1982 = 100.

fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1raP7

(Basic take away: the average real rent is about 4.2x or 420% what it was in 1982 whereas the median real wage has only risen by about 1.2x or 20%)

Edit 3: I would do median rent vs median wage, but FRED does not appear to track median rent.

Personal debt levels are astoundingly bad EDIT: If you do not own a house. The average US renter credit score is 638, and most places won’t even consider you if it is below 620.

investopedia.com/do-you-need-credit-to-rent-apart…

… a study from Rent Cafe found that the average credit score of renters in the U.S. was 638 in 2020 (the most recent data available),…

The medical system remains ruinously expensive and corrupt.

The proportion of those who are not counted as unemployed, but who are not working, climbs higher and higher. is lowering, but still has not recovered to Pre-Covid levels, much less abated its general downward trend since the 90s.

(Labor Force Participation Rate).

fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1raRG

College costs climb further and further, offering less and less likelihood of an actual decent paying job.

Wealth inequality is the worst in the known economic history of the world.

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