The practical answer is 3-4% above to counteract the right-wing effect of the electoral college. Yes, it all matters on what states she wins.
The theoretical answer is that Kamala could get less votes, just like Trump did in 2016, and still “win.” It’s not practical because the swing states are more conservative than the median population of the country as a whole, which means it’s extremely unlikely those swing states will vote for Kamala while Trump gets more votes elsewhere.
The places you need to watch are Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and to a lesser extent Ohio, Minnesota and Florida. The 538 polls will give you a sense of where those states are leading, and you can see different maps here. polling is imperfect, and frankly I can’t take the anxiety of watching that data day-to-day.
I wish (as an Ohioan) we could deliver Ohio for 2024. Maybe if Kamala pushes the abortion and democracy point well enough and reassure gun owners that the federal government isn’t going to come for their guns.
There’s also a good chance that what can only be describe as the “fuck all the politicians that won’t listen to us about drawing maps” gerrymandering amendment is on the ballot for November … and there’s a solid chance that gets passed ending ~2 decades of the GOP stranglehold on Ohio representation in the US House.
All of the moderation here is done by actual human beings who are (mostly) reasonable. If they make a mistake, you can just message them, and they’ll fix it. No one is banned by an algorithm.
In reality, you can’t actually be banned from lemmy, because it’s a federated platform. You can only be banned from an instance.
Aren’t all of those just fake images the government displays on the dome LCD covering the world inside ice walls? If they were real they would have dropped out of the sky already.
I’m not talking about performance but learning curve and unnecessary features. I don’t really want to learn any key bindings or a whole new ecosystem just for a text editor I use to edit a config once a month.
I used Doom for a while, but it was still slow. I’ve been replacing emacs with more unix-y tools (helix/neovim as editor, yazi for file manager, etc.). I really just miss the design of emacs (the self-documentation, the infinite extensibility, etc.). I hope someday maybe Lem will fill my needs (which I just learned about yesterday).
Join any instance, subscribe to all the niche communities on other instances. The general form for linking a community on a remote instance is !community
You can pick what search engines are sourced, which is fanatic, and it’s fully anonymous. My preferred instance is disroot’s (search.disroot.org) as they are a super trustworthy nonprofit in my book.
In my opinion, the probable burnout isn’t worth it. Burnout is like a heat injury, once you get it you become more susceptible to it for a time. I recommend maintaining a healthy work-freetime balance now so you know how to do it in the future.
kbin.life
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