I am a pilot and flight instructor. I took a full year of meteorology at ERAU. Most weather forecast products presented to the general public are completely worthless, and we really should run “AccuWeather” out of business.
The temperature number they show you for what it is “now” was probably taken by the AWOS at the closest municipal airport to your location. If you’ve ever noticed like a car GPS reporting weather from three towns over and not the one you’re in right now, it’s because the town you’re in right now doesn’t have a nearby airport or it doesn’t have an AWOS.
10-day forecasts are generated by tarot cards and have no basis in reality. Actual aviation weather forecasts seldom reach out beyond 24 hours.
Your best bet for getting a complete understanding of the weather is to start by looking at the GOES satellite imagery, ie actually look at the Earth from geosynchronous orbit and look at the clouds. You know those maps with the blue lines with triangles on them and red lines with half circles and big blue Hs and big red Ls? Those are called Prognostic charts, those map where high and low pressure systems and fronts are. Look at one of those and compare them to the satellite images. Then look at Doppler radar imagery, which shows where precipitation is. Look at what it’s been doing for the last few hours, and then you can get a good sense of generally what the weather is going to do in the next few hours. Beyond that, not even God knows because the prick hasn’t decided yet.
No shade but I could not take the premise of that book seriously. The idea that any complex system could be mapped thousands of years into the future is so incredibly unrealistic to me that I was unable to suspend my disbelief.
I’m a massive Dune fan though so I have no leg to stand on. Hold on a second while I re-calibrate my metabolism and use my genetic heritage to recall events that happened 30000 years ago.
So, what Hari does is basically game theory on a massive scale. The larger the group, the less complexity because you’re abstracting the different possible issues individuals would have out of the problem. Instead of making it more complex, it simplifies the whole thing because all the chaotic bits cancel each other out.
And slight spoiler warning for an old story but you find out later that the whole thing isn’t just predicted ahead of time and let loose but a group of people follow along in the shadows to keep the plan on track.
It wasn’t because it couldn’t. Hari tried it and failed. Applying Psychohistory to only large enough populations was his compromise. This is mentioned in Prelude to Foundation. I think Hari specifically mentions how complex predicting weather is iirc. That’s why I mentioned it in the first place.
At the time Hari tried to apply it at the small scale, it was impossible. I believe by the time Gaia takes over the science could be applied to the single organism but that also feels like cheating.
The whole point of prelude and forward was that his attempts to start on the smaller scale by going backwards in time was a fools errand and impossible but starting with the relatively small scale of just Trantor was doable as it had sufficient mass to apply the generalized mathematics towards. The variables on the smaller scales were too numerous but as you abstract towards larger bodies, it reduces the complexity to the point it becomes calculable.
It’s not that surprising to me. Chaos theory is not well known/understood and we are accustomed to seeing weather reports from childhood, it’s not odd to expect them to be accurate.
My main beef with them is they take data from the public National Weather Service and package it for profit, and they’re backing proposed legislation that would prevent the NWS from distributing their weather data directly to the public.
Other than that, most of what AccuWeather does is make the pretty weather maps for the TV stations, and most of the way they make them pretty is by making them less accurate, complete and precise. To a pilot, for whom weather information is a critical safety tool, an AccuWeather product is a bit like a traffic light covered in a half inch thick layer of Spongebob stickers.
The NWS is already trying to measure and predict the giant ball of chaos that is the Earth’s atmosphere with probably fewer tools than they’d like, and AccuWeather takes that data and makes it worse so that it’s prettier for TV.
Certain levels in Super Mario Bros. 3 and Super Mario World end with Mario collecting a ? orb rather than the usual goal. During speedruns, it's customary to shout "Orb!" upon completing these levels.
Older guy here, went bald in my 20s. Let me say this: while going bald or becoming bald sucks ass, being bald is fine. I had lots of thick hair, and when it started going away and I didn’t look like me in the mirror anymore. I figured women would find me less attractive.
What I learned is that it takes a while for your self image to catch up to your reflection in the mirror. One of the shitty things for most people about going bald is that it happens over a long time, and when you’re used to one level of baldness, it gets worse. But eventually it levels out.
There are women who aren’t attracted to bald guys (and that’s fine, attraction is subjective), but it turns out there are women who are especially attracted to bald guys, and that the vast majority of women don’t care. Doing things like having a comb-over or wearing a toupee are often a turnoff, but I think it’s as much because of the associated lack of confidence than the look itself.
I can sincerely say that I wouldn’t want my hair back today. The look suits me and it’s easier to deal with.
That’s exactly it. There was a grieving process for a few months as I came to terms with it, but now I don’t think I’d go back if given the chance. I’m a bald guy, I look good bald and can make bald jokes whenever the ice needs breaking.
When I lived in central Alaska, I saw summertime temps of up to 90F (32C) and wintertime temps down to -55F (-48C).
Summer was amazing; endless sunlight. 23.5 hours during the Summer Solstice. Want to play sports at 2am in broad daylight? Easy.
Winter was also amazing, but with the serious understanding that venturing outside without the proper life safety equipment (proper cold weather gear and communication with someone about your whereabouts and route), you could die in about an hour. But those Auroras… a stunning, and gorgeous midnight sentinel dancing above your head—absolutely worth it.
Yes but also no. the tldr is It will work, but video streaming is against CloudFlare rules. I ran this way for about 2 years with Plex just for my own use, so for about 15 hours a week on 480p and I never got my service suspended, but I’ve heard stories of others getting suspended… So just know it’s a risk
I suppose it’s OK for vaultwarden as there isnt much data being transfered?
That’s a good use of tunnels
Would it be better to run nginx proxy manager for everything or can I run both of the solutions?
You can definitely run both solutions (tunnel points to npm, npm towards to all other services), and it saves you setting up tunnels for each service
Now for my 2 cents
As others have suggested, tailscale funnel is a valid option. A reverse proxy using a VPS is also a valid option. And as I pointed out, doing the CloudFlare tunnel is an option if you’re willing to accept the risk.
My current setup is using a free Oracle VPS with a small nginx docker container forwarding all port 80 and 443 traffic through a tailscale. On the other end is a nginx proxy manager docker container that points to all my services across the network. I have my CloudFlare details configured in nginx proxy manager to generate a wildcard SSL certificate that I apply to all my local services
Inside the network, I use adguard to redirect the domain to the local LAN IP of the nginx proxy manager server to avoid traffic going through the internet.
Then all you need to do is point the domain on CloudFlare dns to the Oracle server, and you’ll have several layers of separation between the internet and your local LAN , as well as SSL certs both internally and externally on any services you share
It might not be the most elegant setup, but I share my Plex server (as well as about 30 other things) with several other people and can handle multiple 1080p streams going through it without any issue and it’s been nice and stable for over a year without any issues
Yes but also no. the tldr is It will work, but video streaming is against CloudFlare rules. I ran this way for about 2 years with Plex just for my own use, so for about 15 hours a week on 480p and I never got my service suspended, but I’ve heard stories of others getting suspended… So just know it’s a risk
My understanding is that this clause was quietly removed from the Ts and Cs, perhaps 1 or 2 years ago. I haven’t heard of anyone getting banned for it recently.
Personally while I have Jellyfin set up through Cloudflare, it’s almost entirely run local-network only (with a local DNS entry in Pihole to connect to the domain direct when on my network) so I haven’t had any issues but probably wouldn’t trigger any unusual activity alarms in Cloudflare.
I do vaguely remember something about it getting changed, but yeah, as you said unless you’re sharing it with a bunch of people, it’s probably not enough to trigger anything on their side anyway
I think theres a nice variety of methods out there now that there’s no “one right way” to do it which I think is great compared to just a few years ago where your only real options were a reverse tunnel or CloudFlare tunnels
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