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Kolanaki ,
@Kolanaki@yiffit.net avatar

Wasn’t it over 70k at one point? 🤨

Aatube OP ,

Don't think so

bartolomeo ,
@bartolomeo@suppo.fi avatar

Who tf is buying??

Num10ck ,

russian agencies, chinese families, people being ransommed…

Aatube OP ,

I dunno why you think Chinese families are buying it. In fact, it's banned in China.

bartolomeo ,
@bartolomeo@suppo.fi avatar

They might have meant Chinese families in Texas.

YeetPics ,
@YeetPics@mander.xyz avatar

Illegal≠not occuring

Aatube OP ,

Still, I heavily doubt that they make up a significant portion of the buyers, which Num10ck implies

YeetPics ,
@YeetPics@mander.xyz avatar

Im not comfortable making assumptions like that without solid numbers to back it up.

Aatube OP ,

But I am, especially given the level of network control they have. I don't think a very large portion of Bitcoin people would be smart enough to get a VPN.

Also, claiming a ton of Bitcoin miners are Chinese is the assumption, not saying that it's heavily unlikely. See Russell's Teapot.

BobaFuttbucker ,

Nice

Zorsith ,
@Zorsith@lemmy.blahaj.zone avatar

Nice

banghida ,

Technology?

Aatube OP ,

My interpretation of this place is for anything that involves big tech, which includes tech that is big and big tech companies, the former of which includes Bitcoin

TonyTonyChopper ,
@TonyTonyChopper@mander.xyz avatar

I love seeing fern stock price posts on my gardening community.

Aatube OP ,

To extend that analogy, this place would be filled with hedge mazes, royal parks and show news instead of gardening tips and local gardens. So fern prices would be in the former category anyway

Buffalox ,

Yeah this is a bit far fetched, I guess blockchain = tech?
I think this might have had merit some years ago, but bitcoin is not about the tech anymore IMO, because the tech behind it is well established now.
But since we don’t have a “financial” sub with any traction that I know of, I’m ok with it being here anyway.

banghida ,

Yeah Bitcoin is a 100% finance thing for a good while now. It’s not like price moves up down based on efforts by the open source community behind Bitcoin, it moves by collaborative efforts of traders, speculators, market makers and above all Tether Inc and their cronies.

Corkyskog ,

If news articles about Elons current tweet or TSLAs stock price is Technology, then why not this?

banghida ,

I never saw such posts. Who cares about tesla stock price?

Corkyskog ,

Luckily it’s been a minute since they have sprung up. I am just salty because last time the flood came, I was like “This is not Technology!!!” Only to receive a dozen down votes.

pr06lefs ,

yay, how many nations worth of electricity is it consuming now?

bjoern_tantau ,
@bjoern_tantau@swg-empire.de avatar

Don’t know if “nice” is appropriate.

dhork ,

From here, it’s just as likely to go to $420,069 as $420.69 .

iopq ,

Then you should obviously buy it

0.5 * 420069 = 210034.5

0.5 * 420.69 = 210.0345

At an expected value of around $210K you’d be getting triple value on your investment if your post were true

Aatube OP ,

I don't see the sense in your calculations

PlantJam ,

If it has a 50% chance to increase by 10,000% or a 50% to decrease by 90%, the average expected price is an increase of about 5,000%. It’s a finance thing, but I doubt the commenter was serious.

iopq ,

It’s not the expected price per se, but the expected payoff of the investment

We may never sell at 5000% because we’re looking for 10000% so we might ignore that price until it either hits our sell point on either side. Either 10000% gain or 90% loss

The value of the investment is then our expected value, but also decreased by risk-free rate for every year we expect to hold to make 10000% profit and divided by half for the probability of 50%

So if we expect to hold for 100 years on average to achieve that price, it’s not a good investment because you can just buy bonds that yield 5% to achieve that return (131.5x after 100 years)

But if we expect to hold it for ten years, it becomes attractive

PlantJam ,

That makes perfect sense, thank you for the thorough explanation!

iopq ,

It’s called expected value

50% you expect a certain payoff, so the EV of this situation is 0.5 * payoff

Buffalox ,

Thanks, nice perspective on investing you’ve made overall in this thread. 👍

abhibeckert ,

If you make bets like that, not just once but repeatedly in a broad portfolio, you will get filthy rich.

But that’s based on the false assumption “it’s just as likely”. The price of bitcoin is not random, and to really get filthy rich you want to use a decision process that better understands market pricing patterns.

A wonderful video on that was posted a week ago: www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5w-dEgIU1M

Evilcoleslaw ,

Call me when it’s at $69,420.

Aatube OP ,

World Obesity Day happened and it fell again

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