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Stern ,
@Stern@lemmy.world avatar

Trump is now the oldest presidential nominee in history. She’s about 20 years younger then him. She’s unburdened by all of Biden’s failures, and can claim all his successes. Also not being catholic she doesn’t have to be weird about abortion and can be pro choice, which post-Roe is a HUGE deal for about 50% of the population. Trumpworld’s best hit against her is her laugh, which is absolutely not doing numbers because… c’mon.

So yeah she’s got a decent chance, but obviously anything can happen.

Delphia ,

The only point I’d argue is that whenever I see pictures of people protesting outside abortion clinics there are plenty of women there too…

The abortion topic might not necessarily pull the womens vote as hard as you might think.

cabbage ,
@cabbage@piefed.social avatar

There are of course women on both sides, but generally speaking the prospect of being forced to cast a child they do not want is off-putting for most women.

PhlubbaDubba ,

See you’d think that but in practice women almost never imagine the men want restrictions that are actually as strict as the rhetoric suggests.

No exception bans are so beyond the pale that even blood red Nebraska will go 60 to 40 against them. Hitting the abortion button is one of the Dems’ best strategies right now, if the Republicans defend it too much they alienate the center, and if they don’t defend it enough they sap the right’s energy for them, and they themselves have polarized the issue enough that there’s not nearly as much of a goldilocks zone for keeping enough voters grumbling but not turned off to skate by as there may have been in the past.

Also applies to Project 2025 more generally but the abortion issue is the locus around which that broader case can be built from since it’s the “right now” manifestation of just how crazy it will all be.

Zachariah ,
@Zachariah@lemmy.world avatar

It really depends on how misogynistic and racist American voters are.

K1nsey6 ,
@K1nsey6@lemmy.world avatar

We don’t like because she’s a piece of shit cop, not because of her gender or her race

Unpacking Kamala Harris’s Record on Trans and Sex Work Issues - From denying affirming healthcare to a trans inmate to barring forums sex workers used to protect themselves, the former “top cop” has a concerning record of endangering our community’s most marginalized members.

them.us/…/kamala-harriss-record-on-trans-and-sex-…

And…

Kamala Harris is a complicated choice for some LGBTQ+ people

19thnews.org/…/kamala-harris-complicated-lgbtq-ch…

And…

Kamala Harris Takes ‘Responsibility’ for Opposing Trans Surgeries

out.com/…/kamala-harris-takes-responsibility-oppo…

She kept prisoners past their parole or release dates so the prisons wouldnt lose the labor

prospect.org/…/how-kamala-harris-fought-to-keep-n…

dipshit ,

Sus account is sus.

pumpkinseedoil ,

So is the conclusion from that that LGBTQ people would rather vote for Trump (directly, or indirectly by voting for some small candidate or not voting)? I don’t get why this would be a reason for them to not support the democrats

hperrin ,

It’s like if you have a choice of getting tickled for an hour or getting shot in the chest, and you focus on how much you dislike being tickled.

Habahnow ,

bro, getting tickled for an hour is very uncomfortable. Maybe If I get shot in the chest, my options next time will be I live a long life without a shot to the chest?

snausagesinablanket OP ,
@snausagesinablanket@lemmy.world avatar

Joe Biden was one of that main sponsors on making harsher drug sentences in the 1980’s and yet he changed with the times and science, and so can she.

skeezix ,

Enjoy your downvotes comrade

BlueEther ,
@BlueEther@no.lastname.nz avatar

From the outside… I hope that the US is not as bad as it looks.

Hugh_Jeggs ,

From the outside - I read a comment about a " possible second black president" and it took me a minute to figure out they were talking about Harris

If I do more than a few hours gardening in summer I’m darker-skinned than her 😂

Why are they so obsessed with someone’s…hue?!?

laughterlaughter ,

If I do more than a few hours gardening in summer I’m darker-skinned than her 😂

This is your privilege talking. Because if someone targets you for your skin color, all you need to do is stay in the shade for a couple of weeks. “Lol!”

But more to the point, you’re right. Unfortunately, American politicians have a history of not liking non-whites in positions of power. Under Obama, the GOP shut down the government twice, and the famous “you lie!” line was uttered to him by a Republican during an official act - something that has never happened before. All because he was black.

solrize ,

It’s about African ethnicity more than albedo per se. GOP also-ran Vivek Ramaswamy is about the same hue as Obama but it’s less of an issue for him. Quite a bit of US racism lingers from the Jim Crow era and even the Civil War. Most African-Americans are literally descended from antebellum slavery and are still seen by some as something like escapees. Obama himself didn’t have that in his ancestry (his father came to the US from Kenya, which didn’t “count”) and that helped him, I think, though of course he was still subject to racism. Basically there is a chunk of the US that misses the plantation system and wants it back.

laughterlaughter ,

I’ve lived in the U.S. for more than 20 years. I’m “Mexican from South America” like many Trumpists would call me.

It’s not as bad as it looks.

Lost_My_Mind ,

I’m afraid I have some bad news…

hperrin ,

We voted for Obama twice, and Hillary won the popular vote.

Vendetta9076 ,
@Vendetta9076@sh.itjust.works avatar

This kind of thinking is exactly the reason why Trump got elected in the first place.

Delphia ,

That may work in Harris’s favor. She is a woman and she isnt white…

Now I know theres minorities and women who do vote red but if you look at the population based on percentages white men are only 31% of the population, White women 30%, 12% black, 18% Hispanic. If she pulls white women, and the POC (not to mention the LGBT+ vote) she could absolutely walk it in. She just needs to convince those people to get up off their asses and vote in record numbers.

zephr_c ,

Yes and yes.

Gullible ,

Lemmy’s opinions are a poor substitute for polls. Give them a little time to ascertain whether democracy is likely to fall.

SeattleRain ,

Nope, she’ll lose the black vote for putting them into the chattel slavery prison system. She’ll lose the youth vote for supporting the Palestinian genocide. She’ll get a lot of heckin’ blue no matter who Redditors just like Hilary!

ASDraptor ,

Yeah, I’m pretty sure the youth and the black voters are excited to vote for a fascist felon like Trump

archonet ,

Wait for the debate on September 10th. Up to then, it’s anybody’s game. I’m willing to bet that debate is the deciding factor in who wins the election.

rustyfish ,
@rustyfish@lemmy.world avatar

I am hoping for Harris to channel her inner persecutor and bull rush Trump off stage.

ABCDE ,

Going for another Californian, if possible, would be a bad call.

adarza ,

if a president and vice president on the same winning ticket hailed from the same state, and it was a close election–things would get messy. really messy. like, even worse than they are now.

an elector’s votes (at that stage of the process, there are two: one for president, one for vice president) in the electoral college cannot both be for a candidate from their own (the elector’s) home state.

solrize ,

I wouldn’t say she has no chance, but the present situation is chaos. Harris could blow it, Trump could blow it, the GOP could throw enough legal flak to keep Harris off important ballots, who knows. Biden on the other hand was at a disadvantage vs Trump, but still had winning chances, as we say in chess.

Very recent yet now obsolete:

newsweek.com/allan-lichtman-accurately-predicted-…

ArmokGoB ,

I want her to win, but I’d bet good money against her winning.

Lost_My_Mind ,

So do it. Either you get a cash payout, or you get a functional democratic government for the next 4-8 years.

StrawberryPigtails ,

Know of anywhere that will let you bet on political races?

Hominine ,
@Hominine@lemmy.world avatar

Have fun.

ArmokGoB ,

You know a reputable bookie?

solrize ,

polymarket.com/…/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-…

K1nsey6 ,
@K1nsey6@lemmy.world avatar

She could blow it badly just by being in the race.

snausagesinablanket OP ,
@snausagesinablanket@lemmy.world avatar

She is in so a vote for her is one less vote for a rapist.

K1nsey6 ,
@K1nsey6@lemmy.world avatar

Tara Reid has entered the chat.

geekwithsoul ,

It’s Tara Reade first off. Secondly she defected to Russia in the company of a known Russian intelligence asset whom she termed a “friend.” So excuse everyone who thinks her story might be suspect.

Mellow12 ,

The Democrats are out of time, and they could rush to nominate her as their candidate in August. It’s likely they will find the best polling candidate, and I hope they look for someone outside the Biden/Harris administration. Someone without the baggage of the last four years and complicit in hiding the condition of the current president.

Personally I hope they ask Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to lead. (If she will accept) Of all the possible nominees I’ve read about she has the most experience.

Fecundpossum ,

What I wouldn’t give to see Big Gretch in the Oval Office. MAGAts literally tried to hatch a plan to kidnap and murder her, so she’s aware of the threat they pose to civilization in a way few others are. That aside, she’s taught effectively for labor, helped repeal right to work in her home state, and is brimming with personality.

She also doesn’t want the job, which makes her even more perfect for it.

Objection ,

More of a chance than they did. The dems were definitely going to lose before, now things are shaken up, Trump still has an edge but if they play their cards right who knows.

outdated2139 ,

She could completely blow it by picking the wrong running mate. For instance if she picked Hillary, it would be over. That isn’t going to happen though and she has good options for a running mate if they choose to accept.

People are high on her now because it’s refreshing news they won’t have to vote for Biden. We’ll see if the momentum can carry over into the election and if Kamala shoves her foot in her mouth. I don’t think she will inspire a lot of people to vote but Trump will inspire a lot of people to vote against him.

Atin ,

Getting shot gave Trump the win. Project 2025 will destroy the US.

missingno ,
@missingno@fedia.io avatar

At this point, anything could happen. It could go either way. So yes, she has a chance, and yes, she could find a way to blow it.

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