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dogsnest ,
@dogsnest@lemmy.world avatar

True story: half the country doesn’t even know she’s in yet.
Had to tell 3 peeps at dinner yesterday what’s up.
I’m not alone.

MeekerThanBeaker ,

I get how there are people who don’t follow politics, but man… how do you avoid news like this?

I mean, technically, she’s not in until the convention… but you would think it would be common knowledge unless you’re a recluse or a child who doesn’t know most people by name.

dogsnest ,
@dogsnest@lemmy.world avatar

Someone more famous than I (Meryl Streep?) once suggested that upon graduation, one should be mandated to drive a taxi for a year, just to see what it’s “really like” out there.
You’ll have to take my word for it, she’s so right.

People still talk about litter boxes in schools for the furries - with a phone attached to their palms 24/7 that’ll PROVE to them in seconds that it never happened…and, yet…

MelodiousFunk ,

People still talk about litter boxes in schools for the furries - with a phone attached to their palms 24/7 that’ll PROVE to them in seconds that it never happened…and, yet…

…yet they find that one thread on Nextdoor where one person claimed that it happened in their child’s classroom and a lot of self-righteous pearl clutching. Therefore, that must be the truth.

Snowclone ,

I just worked customer service for a decade. After awile you just take it in stride when an adult is functionally illiterate. Leaving aside the people who think Democrat and Republican have to do with the dictionary definitions of Democracy and Republic and nothing else.

someguy3 ,

So they didn’t know “she’s in” but did they know Biden dropped out?

dogsnest ,
@dogsnest@lemmy.world avatar

“Who?”

– them

someguy3 ,

They don’t know who Biden is?

dogsnest ,
@dogsnest@lemmy.world avatar

sorry,

“/s”

someguy3 ,

… You started off with a supposed true story that you want people to believe, but somewhere it turned to sarcasm. I’m not sure what to believe anymore.

dogsnest ,
@dogsnest@lemmy.world avatar

The true story is that people, except the reader, you, and I, are fucking ignorant, illiterate, and stupid.

That applies to my first statement, my reply to you, and the subsequent replies.

WalrusDragonOnABike ,

Do they need to? She’s not over 80 and she’s not Trump.

Are you in a swing state?

BarbecueCowboy ,

That does kind of explain a lot.

I know we’re all in our own occasionally overlapping echo chambers, but the betting odds and prediction markets still tend to favor Trump, some of the larger ones pretty heavily. It’s very disconnected from the narrative I’ve been seeing about Kamala here and elsewhere, I hope that narrative is right, but still doesn’t line up.

ImADifferentBird ,
@ImADifferentBird@lemmy.blahaj.zone avatar

We’re a week into Kamala’s candidacy. Things are going to change around very quickly.

For now, this is a promising sign, but it doesn’t mean Trump is done. There’s still a long way to go until November.

dogsnest ,
@dogsnest@lemmy.world avatar

2 weeks, and she’s erased polling deficits!

is drooling in fear through their “tooths”, like Pavlov’s dog, bc they’re hearing the Ding! Ding! Ding! from the electorate.

TrickDacy ,

Why do I keep seeing people putting stock in “betting markets”? … Somehow professional gamblers became respected replacements for polls some and I do not get it

nickhammes ,

I think the justification is that people will be more honest/rational when betting their own money.

It’s probably less irrational than stock markets, since there’s a very clear time horizon people are betting on, and data like polls can be pretty good. But since they’re looking at essentially the same data as pundits, it’s unsurprising they tend to do about as well.

BarbecueCowboy ,

It’s real easy to make polls go whichever way you like if you try and it may be in someoned best interest to make sure only the ‘correct’ polls are widely known. We’re spoiled in that we’ve been able to expect the organizations involved to be trustworthy and not do that, but I think a lot of us feel that that’s been less and less true.

For the betting markets, their success relies almost solely on them predicting odds correctly and consistently. Our respect here is for the people who dedicate their lives to making sure the gamblers lose. Could obviously still be manipulated, but in this case doing so is at least contrary to the purpose of the organization instead of in the previous case potentially actually supporting it…

Not going to lie though, is a weird shift, I get it.

return2ozma OP ,
@return2ozma@lemmy.world avatar

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/5ca7069d-6ed8-4b41-828e-0a19a9a512d1.jpeg

AbidanYre ,

Michigan fucking loves her. Damn.

expatriado ,

also, Trump did nothing for them

Rhaedas ,

What state could claim he did something for them? That this once again is a close race constantly boggled my mind.

expatriado ,

state of dispair

dogsnest ,
@dogsnest@lemmy.world avatar

State of deez nutz.

Phenomephrene ,
@Phenomephrene@thebrainbin.org avatar

Ask Wisconsin how that Foxconn contract he helped secure for them turned out.

(For those not familiar, and disinclined to investigate further, the answer is "Not great.")

marx2k ,

Wisconsin here. I’m really surprised that vocal trumpers in this state aren’t strung by their balls by fellow citizens.

But then again people still vote for Ron Johnson and Robin Vos

dogsnest , (edited )
@dogsnest@lemmy.world avatar

A picture = 1K words:

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/c8cd5d96-a41f-4f33-8026-5bf5e48f715a.png

EmpathicVagrant ,

Is there a source or context? Otherwise this is just a random graphic

dogsnest ,
@dogsnest@lemmy.world avatar

It’s simply a reply, no more, no less.

However, I never like to leave an empty belly:

Sauce

Socsa ,

That’s 271 baby

dogsnest ,
@dogsnest@lemmy.world avatar

Talk dirty to me.

MeekerThanBeaker ,

Also, Trump’s a rapist, convicted felon, and just plain weird.

dogsnest ,
@dogsnest@lemmy.world avatar

I’m glad you went easy on the lying treasonous cowardly pedophile traitor, Fatty McFelon.
Warms me heart.

ThePantser ,
@ThePantser@lemmy.world avatar

Yes, yes we do. We love women leaders, we keep voting for them.

Beaver ,
@Beaver@lemmy.ca avatar

Kamala Harris is going to wipe the floor with Trump.

Lost_My_Mind ,

I need you to be right.

Drunemeton ,
@Drunemeton@lemmy.world avatar

We are!

She can’t do it alone, and we can’t assume that she’ll win. Keep pushing until she’s sworn in Jan 2025.

This is Trump’s last chance. The republicans will literally stop at nothing to ensure he wins.

Socsa ,

Get your shit together PA. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is game over.

MelodiousFunk ,

Get your shit together PA.

Pennsyltuckians would be very upset if they could read.

kn0wmad1c ,
@kn0wmad1c@programming.dev avatar

Did they only take polls in Pittsburgh?

xmunk ,

Those margins are all uncomfortably close - “wipes out” is needlessly bombastic.

dave881 ,

I think that “wipes out” here is referring to the lead that Trump had in the polls previously. All the states went from a clear lead for Trump over Biden, to basically even, with one exception showing a clear lead.

I think that it suggests a competitive race, rather than one side coasting to victory. It is hard to draw concrete conclusions still, but the clear lead is definitely gone

someguy3 ,

I think it was John Stewart said we’re happy to have gone from Trump lead to statistical tie.

nulluser ,

I’d like to remind everyone that 8 years ago, the polls showed Hillary was going to trounce Trump pretty handedly. There was tons of discussion after the election about how the polls could be so wrong.

I think Fivethityeight’s explanation went something like…

If a candidate is only polling 40% to their opponents’s 60%, and you were to run the election 10 times with a different sampling of voters each time, it doesn’t mean that the candidate will lose by 60% every time. It means they’re going to win four times out of ten.

Don’t let polls lull you into either complacency or despair. The only thing polls are really good for is giving pundits something to talk about in the 24 hour news cycle. Polls don’t decide the election. Only actual votes on actual ballots that are actually submitted in time decide the election.

Snowclone ,

Very very true, I put time and money into Bernie Sanders second bid, the polling made it look like he was going to win the primary in a devistating landslide. It never materialized, his base, if they ever were serious weren’t serious enough to actually make it to a polling place on the day of. Very disappointing. Never think the polling will match the voting, they can be very different animals.

PM_Your_Nudes_Please , (edited )

And this messaging is a large part of what led to low democrat turnout when Hillary was running for office. Her early campaign had basically been “lol don’t worry about this, he’s an idiot who doesn’t gave a chance of winning.” It wasn’t until about a month before the actual election that someone in her campaign team realized this would lull voters into a false sense of security. Suddenly, their entire tone changed from “he has no chance of winning” to “oh for fucks sake please go vote”. But it was too little, too late. Democrat voters stayed home, and handed the win to Trump.

AbidanYre ,

I’m not sure the country is ready for a gay VP, but my god Pete would destroy JD in the debate.

Snowclone ,

I think Trump proved that literally anyone can be president.

ikidd ,
@ikidd@lemmy.world avatar

Let’s just get the orange turd defeated, we’re already pushing boundaries enough here. Pick a safe VP that calms the boomers and carry on later.

nifty ,
@nifty@lemmy.world avatar

This is awesome, the momentum looks like it’s going to keep up! The +11 point lead in MI is nothing to doubt, let’s go President Harris!

I hope her campaign keeps reminding voters everywhere of project 2025, and exactly how it’s going to negatively impact their lives.

ralphio ,

Overall the polls have been encouraging for her, but that MI one look really wrong. 538 has her about down a point on average.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/

BreadstickNinja ,

538 shows the same result, Kamala +11, for the specific Morning Consult poll cited in the chart.

But you are correct that this poll is an outlier compared to other polls, and we probably need more data and for the race to settle a bit before we have a sense of the actual margin.

I’m hesitant to put too much stock in any numbers a single week into her candidacy. It also bears repeating that no poll matters unless people vote.

ArbitraryValue ,

Wow that’s a long poll. I got to 100 questions before I stopped counting, and “who would you vote for” is in the second half. Did they ask every respondent all the questions?

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