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Who's winning the war in Ukraine?

The media won’t give me great answers to this question and I think this I trust this community more, thus I want to know from you. Also, I have heard reports that Russia was winning the war, if that’s true, did the west miscalculate the situation by allowing diplomacy to take a backseat and allowing Ukraine to a large plethora of military resources?

PS: I realize there are many casualties on both sides and I am not trying to downplay the suffering, but I am curious as to how it is going for Ukraine. Right now I am hearing ever louder calls of Russia winning, those have existed forever, but they seem to have grown louder now, so I was wondering what you thought about it. Also, I am somewhat concerned of allowing a dictatorship to just erase at it’s convenience a free and democratic country.

Candelestine ,

Tbf the guy that said arms dealers is 100% correct.

My opinion is that Ukraine has a light-moderate advantage right now.

It mainly comes down to American and EU politics. If both aid packages pass, then Ukraine is in a good position to build up over the winter and continue slowly pushing to cut off Crimea, which is the biggest prize. Steadily growing air power is going to make a significant difference, we already saw recently how helpful Russia’s re-emerging air power was in grinding down the push across the Dnieper.

As an American I’m fairly confident our aid package will eventually pass. Tying it to Israeli aid is a punch below-the-belt, the repubs can’t back away from that. They’re in negotiations currently, probably stalling. Israel could really use that aid though…

My understanding of the EU aid is Hungary is being a pain, but there’s other tricks available in a big bureaucracy, so we’ll see. Maybe a European can fill that part in better.

Militarily the Russians are slowly and steadily pushing in the east. There’s nothing terribly important over there, but land is land, towns are towns. Their troop losses are high but they also have a high intake supposedly, so it’s possible they can keep this up for awhile. War materiel is continuously exhausting though, people may have noticed they are not shooting nearly as much artillery as they were in the initial parts of the war. But, you don’t actually need tanks and heavy equipment and shit per se, so, it’s a grinder. Their war support is starting to crack, but is still strong. They might have more mines than Ukraine does Ukrainians, so that’s annoying too.

The Ukrainians are digging in. Or at least that’s how it seems, they can be a little tricksey sometimes. They’re still ramping up though, building more forces. They have plenty of will and soldiers and grain, but need more money and materiel. The capture of the Russian side of the Dnieper was impressive though, that probably shouldn’t have happened. If they get the resources, they can probably win.

Oh, and the railroad between China and Russia blew up. No idea how that might’ve happened… Was the only one though.

Scary_le_Poo ,
@Scary_le_Poo@beehaw.org avatar

It’s not a stalemate, but it’s close. Ukraine keeps gaining ground, but it’s essentially ww1 style trench warfare.

Russia has reportedly been losing as much as 900 soldiers per day which is staggering.

The Russians mined everything like crazy when retreating so and forward progress is going to be quite measured.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

Russia has gained more ground during Ukraine’s offensive than Ukraine did. Even western media admits this.

rtxn ,

From what I’ve heard, Ukraine is very slowly taking back strategic locations. At the moment, they’re better equipped than the invaders, but that could change if Russia secures a weapons deal with China or NK. Ukraine also has a wide support (monetary, humanitarian, and military) from western nations. Ukraine has the advantage in the quality of their warfare, Russia in the quantity of meat sacks they can throw at the front.

In my opinion, even if Russia somehow occupies all of Ukraine (which I find unlikely), they will be a pariah nation for many decades. A significant part of their economy is energy export (fossil and nuclear) and the EU is already trying to separate itself from that energy dependence.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

that’s not what’s happening at all, and even western media now openly admits that Ukraine is losing

Ukraine burnt through all the equipment that the west managed to scrounge up for the offensive, and lost most of its experienced and motivated troops in the process. Now, their front is collapsing because they lack weapons and soldiers. Even Stoltenberg is finally admitting this.

Ilovethebomb ,

You sad sacks really are desperate for red team to win, aren’t you? You’ve been saying this for over a year.

yogthos ,
@yogthos@lemmy.ml avatar

https://media.tenor.com/KqOLJYj0mmUAAAAC/copium-cat.gif

buh ,
@buh@hexbear.net avatar

me

java ,

did the west miscalculate the situation by allowing diplomacy to take a backseat and allowing Ukraine to a large plethora of military resources?

a large plethora of military resources

No. The West failed to provide Ukraine with sufficient military resources. While the monetary value of military aid may seem substantial when compared to your bank account, the reality is that Russia possesses greater resources and capabilities.

Subject6051 OP ,

I am kinda split on the issue. I am ok with Ukraine getting more resources as it makes sense for the west to make Ukraine fight their own battles, but at the same time, I really wish there was a ceasefire to the fighting.

Valmond ,

Putin would love a ceasefire. So that he can restructure for the next attack.

java ,

A ceasefire was established after the 2014 invasion, but now we find ourselves in the midst of a full-scale invasion. This underscores the significance of ensuring Putin’s military and political defeat. It is crucial to send a clear message to China (and other potential aggressors) that invading Taiwan would be bad for them. The modern world is intricately interconnected and highly complex, there are no simple solutions to its problems. Unfortunately, many people struggle to accept this reality, leading to the rise of populists.

zephr_c ,

I don’t think either side will be able to decisively beat the other, but that’s not how these things usually end anyway.

Actually, I think it’s pretty funny in a sad sort of way that Americans don’t get how this is going to go. It’s really obvious that Ukraine doesn’t need to win, they just need to keep fighting until Russia goes home. Western aid isn’t even really making much of a difference in the eventual outcome of the war, it’s just reducing the damage that Russia is doing to Ukraine and bring that inevitable end closer faster. We’ve seen over, and over, and over again that once a group of people actually make up their minds to resist, there is nothing that can stop them. Even if the aggressor can bring overwhelming military superiority they will eventually give up and go home, and Russia can’t even do that.

The question isn’t who will win. The question is how many war crimes will Putin commit before admitting he lost this war in the second week.

IsThisLoss ,

copium

mp3 ,
@mp3@lemmy.ca avatar

It’s mostly a war of attrition now, whoever can hold the stalemate longer than the other before everything unravels will win.

NOT_RICK ,
@NOT_RICK@lemmy.world avatar

Seems like a stalemate at the moment but it could really go either way from what I can tell. It depends upon if the west will lose interest and cut back on support or if public opinion in Russia wanes towards wanting an end to the war. At the moment it seems neither side is willing to accept the current status quo.

blackn1ght ,

It’s stalemate at the moment. It’s a waiting game for Western support of Ukraine to drop or for something domestically in Russia to fail.

jaidyn999 ,

Given that it is essentially a proxy war between the US and Russia, its quite possible the war could end without either side actually “winning”.

Obviously the US will continue to support the war for as long as possible, and if that means turning ukraine to ash and destroying the economies of western europe, well that is a price they are willing to pay.

There are still shortages in Russia and if the gas and electricty shortages continue through winter that could be devastating in Russia. It wouldn’t take that much to tip the country into chaos, what the response of the Russian govt to Ukraine would be - possibly using their really large missiles that can wipe out a whole village - is completely unknown.

We don’'t really understand the mentality of the Ukraine govt. The fact that many western weapons seem to go missing before they reach the front and the coincidence of the Azerbaijan getting a pile of muntions just after deliveries to Ukraine may indicate that the aims of the Ukraine govt may not totally align with those of western europe.

Tarte ,
@Tarte@kbin.social avatar

The fact that many western weapons seem to go missing before they reach the front and the coincidence of the Azerbaijan getting a pile of muntions just after deliveries to Ukraine may indicate that the aims of the Ukraine govt may not totally align with those of western europe.

Or it might indicate that you‘re somewhat gullible and consume too much propaganda.

Fizz ,
@Fizz@lemmy.nz avatar

Seems Russia is slowly grinding out Ukraine and if Russia decides to give up at any point or Ukraine negotiates then russia will probably have gained territory.

JoeDaRedTrooperYT ,
@JoeDaRedTrooperYT@lemmygrad.ml avatar

“Defense” companies naturally.

wintermute_oregon ,

Right now I am hearing ever louder calls of Russia winning, those have existed forever, but they seem to have grown louder now, so I was wondering what you thought about it.

Where are you hearing that? I have not heard that Russia is taking a pounding and so is Ukraine.

Right now, it’s a stalemate.

It is a war of attrition at this point and if it drags out long enough, Russia wins because they have more people to throw at the war.

I do not think the F-16 is going to make a large difference in the war. People who never served are the ones thinking it’ll change the war.

The question is how long can the Russian soldiers hold out? I do believe once Ukraine breaks through the lines will collapse quickly but they’ve yet to break through.

I do think NATO has done a disservice in training the Ukrainian military to fight a combined arms fight but then not supplying them with the weapons to fight a combined arms fight.

I personally think Ukraine will win but it is going to be a long fight.

WashedAnus ,
@WashedAnus@hexbear.net avatar

Raytheon and Lockheed-Martin shareholders. BAE and Rheinmetall investors are probably doing well, too.

Rentlar ,

I’m not qualified to speak on this. It is however my opinion that in war, nobody wins, but military suppliers make bank.

To answer “who’s winning” can vary based on what “winning” is looks like, or what the goals were. As others have pointed out those goals have changed over time.

For a play by play recap I listen to Denys Davydov… He seems upfront about both Ukranian and Russian victories in his analysis based on various video, image and map reports, even if he supports the Ukraine side.

Tum ,

While Denys can often provide good coverage on Ukraine, I suggest avoiding him, as at the outbreak of the situation in Gaza and Israel, he shared many videos of Palestinian kids and women running from artillery under the captions like “watch how the roaches scatter”.

Rentlar ,

Well you pose a fair point, but you can also ignore him for matters outside of Ukraine.

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