I’m not qualified to speak on this. It is however my opinion that in war, nobody wins, but military suppliers make bank.
To answer “who’s winning” can vary based on what “winning” is looks like, or what the goals were. As others have pointed out those goals have changed over time.
For a play by play recap I listen to Denys Davydov… He seems upfront about both Ukranian and Russian victories in his analysis based on various video, image and map reports, even if he supports the Ukraine side.