Tbf the guy that said arms dealers is 100% correct.
My opinion is that Ukraine has a light-moderate advantage right now.
It mainly comes down to American and EU politics. If both aid packages pass, then Ukraine is in a good position to build up over the winter and continue slowly pushing to cut off Crimea, which is the biggest prize. Steadily growing air power is going to make a significant difference, we already saw recently how helpful Russia’s re-emerging air power was in grinding down the push across the Dnieper.
As an American I’m fairly confident our aid package will eventually pass. Tying it to Israeli aid is a punch below-the-belt, the repubs can’t back away from that. They’re in negotiations currently, probably stalling. Israel could really use that aid though…
My understanding of the EU aid is Hungary is being a pain, but there’s other tricks available in a big bureaucracy, so we’ll see. Maybe a European can fill that part in better.
Militarily the Russians are slowly and steadily pushing in the east. There’s nothing terribly important over there, but land is land, towns are towns. Their troop losses are high but they also have a high intake supposedly, so it’s possible they can keep this up for awhile. War materiel is continuously exhausting though, people may have noticed they are not shooting nearly as much artillery as they were in the initial parts of the war. But, you don’t actually need tanks and heavy equipment and shit per se, so, it’s a grinder. Their war support is starting to crack, but is still strong. They might have more mines than Ukraine does Ukrainians, so that’s annoying too.
The Ukrainians are digging in. Or at least that’s how it seems, they can be a little tricksey sometimes. They’re still ramping up though, building more forces. They have plenty of will and soldiers and grain, but need more money and materiel. The capture of the Russian side of the Dnieper was impressive though, that probably shouldn’t have happened. If they get the resources, they can probably win.
Oh, and the railroad between China and Russia blew up. No idea how that might’ve happened… Was the only one though.