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Battle of the Atlantic, pt II, coming up next! Flood the black sea with cheap corvette class ships! Depth charges for breakfast!
No seriously, I’d hate to be in the risk assessment side here. Do you try to provoke an attack by going anyway? So that you have an excuse to respond in full force?
Turkey won’t allow military ships to pass the Bosporus in any direction while there’s a war on. This prevents Russia from reinforcing their Black Sea fleet but also prevents Western navies from entering.
I feel like everytime someone “closes” a section of sea the US sends a carrier group right on through just to prove a point. I’m sure this is different because turkey is a tasty bird often served at Thanksgiving.
I think the geography of the Bosporus would give the fleet inside the Black Sea an advantage over those attempting to enter. Those attempting to enter would need air support to soften up defenses before sailing the strait
The difference between peacetime and wartime readiness for nukes only relates to tactical nukes; at least when it comes to an competent nuclear power, nuke are always at the ready at a moments notice. They launch nukes, we launch in retaliation, major destruction spread out over large swaths of land, both sides nuclear capabilities are gone (other than subs that were already deployed and didn't launch their payload). U.S. sails into the Black Sea.
Awhile I expect the same as you do David triumphed over Goliath and the Football Giants defeated the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. It would be a messy campaign.
The Montreux Convention specifically prohibits “aircraft carriers”. This is the reason Russia has historically played cute naming games by calling their carriers “aircraft-carrying cruisers”, and additionally equips them with missile payloads somewhat comparable to cruisers or destroyers from other countries.
Also, the US is an ally of Turkey, despite currently strained relations. The US conducting a freedom of navigation cruise through the Bosphorus Strait would cause far, far more problems than it would solve at the moment.
The U.S. isn't a signatory to the convention and nations exist in a state of anarchy, one cannot (in an official capacity) impose their will over another without consent. There are other agreements between Turkey and the U.S. which would permit any and all passage, so in the absence of the Montreux Convention (which is indeed absent in this case) the U.S. can sail a carrier right on through without breaking any agreed-upon rules.
If the West decided to go hot, Turkey not letting western navies into the Black Sea wouldn’t really make a difference to the continued existence of the Black Sea fleet
Guarantees “complete freedom” of passage for all civilian vessels in times of peace. In peacetime, military vessels are limited in number, tonnage and weaponry, with specific provisions governing their mode of entry and duration of stay. If they want to pass through the Strait, warships must provide advance notification to the Turkish authorities, which, in turn, must inform the parties to the convention.
In wartime, if Turkey is not involved in the conflict, warships of the nations at war may not pass through the Straits, except when returning to their base.
When Turkey is at war, or feels threatened by a war, it may take any decision about the passage of warships as it sees fit.
Montreux Convention signatories who are also allies of Ukraine are not at this point active belligerents in the Ukrainian war, so technically, it would be 100% above board for any of them to send a military vessel into the Black Sea.
Incidentally, the US is not a signatory to the Convention.
No seriously, I’d hate to be in the risk assessment side here. Do you try to provoke an attack by going anyway? So that you have an excuse to respond in full force?
Nobody in power in the world actually wants to respond in full force.
mother and father of a 14-year-old girl were killed on Monday and the girl left wounded as they tried to cross the bridge to start a family holiday in Crimea,
Uh. I guess my holiday destinations are insanely boring in comparison. I call bullshit.
It’s not bullshit, Russians are still vacationing in Crimea like there isn’t a war going on. It’s pretty insane, especially given the fact that they’ve caused traffic jams multiple times that have likely held up war supplies.
Watched a video some months back of a woman in a car with a man video taping her as she cried about why they had to leave Crimea. This was when some were being evacuated because of some offensive moves by Ukraine. The whole time she is crying about why they would do this and how much she loved it there after moving and that they didn’t do anything to deserve it.
They are clueless. Or just brainwashed. Maybe both.
I’m really starting to think that Musk deliberately destroying Twitter is not a conspiracy theory.
I mean, with Twitter and Reddit gone, only Facebook remains.
Ah, well, there are also WhatsApp, Viber, Tik-Tok, Youtube, Telegram which need similar treatment.
Of these I casually use YT and Telegram.
The former is slowly being replaced by uploading videos to the platforms they are posted on.
The latter - well, there was a time Durov promised there would be no ads ever, there are ads everywhere now. And technically it’s junk (the protocol, I mean, while the QT desktop client itself on the contrary is notoriously CPU and memory efficient for my loads of subscribed channels, groupchats etc ; it does crash sometimes, but no Matrix or XMPP client would simply survive that amount of garbage perpetually updating, so).
I used to not think it was sheer stupidity, but when he’s literally challenging his chief rival to measure up penises on a public forum, I think it is, indeed, sheer stupidity.
Durov also went full NFTbro with his fucking username sales. I was a massive Telegram advocate until that moment. Destroyed my trust in him. Now we move to targeted ads inserted everywhere… the end of Telegram is near :(
I use Youtube more than any other service. If you like video essays, documentaries, and other medium- and long-form content, it’s the only place on earth to get it. Cable television ditched intelligent content long ago. Nebula and Curiousity are okay, but most of the content that I couldn’t already get on Youtube has that shitty cable tv vibe.
The only downside with Youtube is it’s huge and the algorithm is iffy. It can take a long time to build up a library of subscriptions that provide high level content every day. But now that I have that, it’s basically my exclusive streaming platform. I watch 1hr of Netflix/HBO/whatever with my wife every night, and all the rest is history, cooking, science, etc. on Youtube.
And by all accounts it still has the same c-suite/management structure as before.
This “restructuring” was done in part to protect the whole when all the antitrust shit finally starts to roost. I’ll give their lawyers credit here, they foresaw the inevitability getting slammed with antitrust lawsuits, and now they can less painfully peel off the “offending” subsidiaries and blame them for any wrong doing instead of parent meta.
Plot twist: It’s totally still meta that’s dictating the evil, they aren’t fooling anyone, fuck their plausible deniability.
he stopped being a cool guy the moment we could see him. he was the enigmatic batman/edison figure for a while, when most people only knew him by the projects he funded. then he decided he wanted to be a celebrity and as soon as we figured out who he is watching him fail miserably has become a pastime for most of us.
We do have a functioning govt. It functions to make the rich richer and give them all the freedom in the world, including exploiting the workforce in all ways possible. But hey, at least our economy is #1! Rejoice!
We do have a functioning government. I requires claims to be tried in court instead of just taking $500 million dollars away without any sort of due process.
reuters.com
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