Battle of the Atlantic, pt II, coming up next! Flood the black sea with cheap corvette class ships! Depth charges for breakfast!
No seriously, I’d hate to be in the risk assessment side here. Do you try to provoke an attack by going anyway? So that you have an excuse to respond in full force?
Turkey won’t allow military ships to pass the Bosporus in any direction while there’s a war on. This prevents Russia from reinforcing their Black Sea fleet but also prevents Western navies from entering.
I feel like everytime someone “closes” a section of sea the US sends a carrier group right on through just to prove a point. I’m sure this is different because turkey is a tasty bird often served at Thanksgiving.
I think the geography of the Bosporus would give the fleet inside the Black Sea an advantage over those attempting to enter. Those attempting to enter would need air support to soften up defenses before sailing the strait
The difference between peacetime and wartime readiness for nukes only relates to tactical nukes; at least when it comes to an competent nuclear power, nuke are always at the ready at a moments notice. They launch nukes, we launch in retaliation, major destruction spread out over large swaths of land, both sides nuclear capabilities are gone (other than subs that were already deployed and didn't launch their payload). U.S. sails into the Black Sea.
Awhile I expect the same as you do David triumphed over Goliath and the Football Giants defeated the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. It would be a messy campaign.
The Montreux Convention specifically prohibits “aircraft carriers”. This is the reason Russia has historically played cute naming games by calling their carriers “aircraft-carrying cruisers”, and additionally equips them with missile payloads somewhat comparable to cruisers or destroyers from other countries.
Also, the US is an ally of Turkey, despite currently strained relations. The US conducting a freedom of navigation cruise through the Bosphorus Strait would cause far, far more problems than it would solve at the moment.
The U.S. isn't a signatory to the convention and nations exist in a state of anarchy, one cannot (in an official capacity) impose their will over another without consent. There are other agreements between Turkey and the U.S. which would permit any and all passage, so in the absence of the Montreux Convention (which is indeed absent in this case) the U.S. can sail a carrier right on through without breaking any agreed-upon rules.
If the West decided to go hot, Turkey not letting western navies into the Black Sea wouldn’t really make a difference to the continued existence of the Black Sea fleet
Guarantees “complete freedom” of passage for all civilian vessels in times of peace. In peacetime, military vessels are limited in number, tonnage and weaponry, with specific provisions governing their mode of entry and duration of stay. If they want to pass through the Strait, warships must provide advance notification to the Turkish authorities, which, in turn, must inform the parties to the convention.
In wartime, if Turkey is not involved in the conflict, warships of the nations at war may not pass through the Straits, except when returning to their base.
When Turkey is at war, or feels threatened by a war, it may take any decision about the passage of warships as it sees fit.
Montreux Convention signatories who are also allies of Ukraine are not at this point active belligerents in the Ukrainian war, so technically, it would be 100% above board for any of them to send a military vessel into the Black Sea.
Incidentally, the US is not a signatory to the Convention.
No seriously, I’d hate to be in the risk assessment side here. Do you try to provoke an attack by going anyway? So that you have an excuse to respond in full force?
Nobody in power in the world actually wants to respond in full force.
The Wagner Group has established operations in several African countries, where many of its operations focus on security issues. It has often provided security services and paramilitary assistance and launched disinformation campaigns for troubled regimes in exchange for resource concessions and diplomatic support. Wagner is most active in the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya, Mali, and Sudan, all of which have a tenuous relationship with the West due to colonial legacies and inherent political differences.
What does it do? Wagner’s services vary based on the needs of its clients, which include rebel groups and regimes, and its funding ranges from direct payment to resource concessions.
Evaluating the U.S. Military Contribution in Afghanistan Combat operations. Wagner troops have supported African governments in combat operations against rebel groups, and vice versa. Approximately one thousand Wagner troops entered CAR in 2018 to defend the government of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra against rebel attacks on the capital, Bangui. In return, Wagner subsidiaries received unrestricted logging rights and control of the lucrative Ndassima gold mine. Similarly, Wagner Group forces deployed to Mozambique in 2019 to help fight the self-proclaimed Islamic State in the northern Cabo Delgado province. However, the group failed to contain the insurgency and withdrew from the area after a few months.
Security and training support. Wagner acts as a security service for vulnerable regimes. The group served as a part of a personal protection detail for Touadéra and helped train CAR’s army to prepare for possible coup attempts. Wagner has operated in Sudan since 2017, training Sudanese troops, guarding mineral resources, and suppressing dissent against the government of President Omar al-Bashir, all in exchange for gold exports to Russia. In many cases, Wagner’s support is supplemented by official Russian military assistance, such as in Mali, where the armed forces received combat and surveillance aircraft from Moscow.
Disinformation campaigns. Prigozhin also owns the Internet Research Agency (IRA), an online “troll farm,” and the Association for Free Research and International Cooperation (AFRIC), both of which are under U.S. sanctions and have worked alongside Wagner. The IRA previously outsourced work to individuals in Ghana and Nigeria that sought to inflame political divisions in the United States ahead of the 2016 presidential election, while AFRIC has sponsored “phony election monitoring” in several African nations, including Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Prigozhin has also been accused of co-opting Pan-Africanist movements to promulgate anti-French and anti-Western messages.
However, the group failed to contain the insurgency and withdrew from the area after a few months.
That’s a diplomatic way of saying Wagner took one ambush and fled the country with their tails between their legs. Wagner is just your typical merc outfit… they only do well when they’re fighting people who don’t shoot back.
He runs his own private army with a ton of loyalists. That's not as easy to push out a window and Putin knows it. On top of that, I wouldn't doubt for a minute that Putin at some level agrees with his complaints of Shoigu and Gerasimov.
And unfortunately Putin encouraged Wagner to be funded by all sorts of black market, crypto enabled activity. The Kremlin can’t just flip the off switch on them, because there isn’t one.
mother and father of a 14-year-old girl were killed on Monday and the girl left wounded as they tried to cross the bridge to start a family holiday in Crimea,
Uh. I guess my holiday destinations are insanely boring in comparison. I call bullshit.
It’s not bullshit, Russians are still vacationing in Crimea like there isn’t a war going on. It’s pretty insane, especially given the fact that they’ve caused traffic jams multiple times that have likely held up war supplies.
Watched a video some months back of a woman in a car with a man video taping her as she cried about why they had to leave Crimea. This was when some were being evacuated because of some offensive moves by Ukraine. The whole time she is crying about why they would do this and how much she loved it there after moving and that they didn’t do anything to deserve it.
They are clueless. Or just brainwashed. Maybe both.
They could also urge to remove the coat and tie from the list of necessary clothes. While it was probably practical in 19th century England, it’s a torture in 2023 Spain
They are not terrorist attacks as sovereign nations cannot by definition commit terrorist attacks. These are acts of war and as Russia invaded Ukraine they are a response to Russian aggression.
reuters.com
Newest