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andrewrgross

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andrewrgross , (edited )

It’s weird how many people in this thread are vaguely debating the validity of the historical research into this question when one person has posted a link to a well cited article on this very very heavily studied subject.

There’s even a link to a well cited article examining the skepticism of the historicity of Jesus: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christ_myth_theory

I don’t feel compelled to argue an interpretation. The facts are well documented and their interpretations by experts available. What anyone chooses to do with these are of no real concern to me.

andrewrgross ,

I didn’t say which side I come down on. I just said that there is lots of information with plenty of high quality citations.

I’m really happy that everyone is a winner.

andrewrgross , (edited )

It’s nuts that this is barely even news. Like… another day another atrocity.

I’m trying not to be numb to it, but it’s hard to remain shocked. I’m still disgusted, though.

I’ll say this, too: I think we too often judge wars by the conduct of the participants as though there are good wars and bad ones. And my hunch is that it’s more like there are bad ones and terrible ones, and as awful as this sounds, this one is more notable because it’s being well documented and it involves a uniquely fucked up context (decades of occupation with the support of the US). I think the way the Israeli right wing discusses it is uniquely brazen, and the degree to which the IDF targets journalists and medics seems high, but I think that this kind of stuff happens so often and is undercovered. I wish Yemen got the kind of coverage this is getting.

In terms of the atrocities, I think most wars are basically just a bunch of atrocities in a trenchcoat. It doesn’t make these any better: I just want this to end, and then all the other wars. Fuck this shit.

AND I want the people who do this shit dragged in front of the Hague. I’m very glad that Netanyahu and Gallant have had arrest warrants requested, but you know what I call that? A good start.

andrewrgross ,

I really try not to get into litigating each and every instance, but I feel compelled sometimes to point out a few things:

The claim that Abdallah Aljamal was holding hostages is not credible. This claim was made by the IDF without evidence, and they have a very long history of fabricating post-hoc justifications for killing people they weren’t targeting or supposed to target. Examples include the assassination of American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh in 2022 and the killing of medic Rouzan al-Najjar in 2018. In both cases, the IDF was caught lying to justify their murders, and I don’t think the claims about Abdallah Aljamal hold up at all. From what I read, he lived in the building one of the hostages was recovered from, but he wasn’t known as a target before he was killed. He was characterized as one after he was dead.

Overall, the concept of “valid targets” is bullshit. It is used to assuage our innate understanding that killing people – particularly the young, the innocent, the defenseless, the elderly – is WRONG. Israel has, in this particular war, extended the concept in a way that is clearly genocidal. Their target selection, as covered by 972, was wildly more vicious than their own historical limits on collateral damage. An anonymous Israeli intelligence officer called it “a mass assassination factory”.

I’m glad we agree that all the responsible parties for atrocities deserve to be held accountable. I don’t intend the above as a provocation to fight, but I want to make sure anyone reading this comment section is aware of this context.

andrewrgross ,

I think maybe execs and investors might feel it’s all the same, but if you’re a project manager for cloud infrastructure for enterprise services or you’ve been working for years on releasing a new component of Bing search that you think is a real gamechanger and some muckity-muck at the top says, ‘Oh, don’t worry about that anymore: a property manager that’s owned by a private equity partner of one of our big investors wants the chatbot that schedules apartment viewings in Huntsville to be more flirty, so go massage the prompts to make it convincingly laugh at bad jokes,’ some of those folks are liable to start grumbling that this isn’t the role that they were pitched when they took this job.

andrewrgross ,

Oh wow, thanks for the heads up!

I’m excited to check this out.

andrewrgross ,

I spent a while reading through this, and I gotta say that this is a really good RPG book. It’s very thorough, it’s well written for suggesting ways to play, it’s attractively formatted. This is a cool book.

andrewrgross ,

I agree with that. Looking through, I find understanding the basic rules to be kind of a burden. It took me a while to realize that “Operations” is the rules section.

I think it makes sense to show players the character sheet early, because that’s the nexus through which they really experience the game. I like the demo scene towards the beginning, but I think a quickstart guide to explain basic rules to the players very, VERY clearly is usually a good idea.

Still, I’m continuously impressed at how well this adapts Star Trek to an RPG. I was initially skeptical that an RPG could take all the nonsense we see in decades of different shows and create a cohesive basis for all of it, but this is really impressive. I’d have to play to see if the rules feel balanced and natural, but at a glance, they make far more sense than plenty of other RPGs I’ve seen. I think this looks like a really fun game.

andrewrgross ,

Agree 100%

Israel Has “Systematically Violated” Laws Regarding Civilian Harm, UN Finds (truthout.org)

Israeli forces have demonstrated a pattern of systematically targeting densely populated civilian areas across hundreds of attacks in Gaza that likely violate international wartime laws, the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) found in a report released Wednesday....

andrewrgross ,

I think this article omitted important further context by not describing the target selection approach the IDF was using: they had an AI tool make guesses as to who was part of Hamas, then suggest bombing runs of their homes when they were believed to be inside around meal times or sleeping. They reserved precision weapons for commanders, and used dumb bombs to kill low-ranking suspected combatants.

This approach is inherently designed to create a pretense to carpet bomb neighborhood full of families based on a process with little to know human oversight it discretion.

For details, look up “lavender” and “where’s Daddy”.

andrewrgross ,

This is so, so fucked up.

It’s hard to grieve effectively in the face of so many tragedies. Here is another one.

andrewrgross ,

Yeah, and more importantly, Biden needs to learn the public component of diplomacy.

I read his interview in Time, and it’s weird, because it at least gave me some aspect into what he’s thinking.

He’s old as fuck. He has learned decades of procedures and standard practice in diplomacy, and he does NOT understand that a lot of it happens in the open now. Biden thinks he’s playing chess with all the diplomatic messages he sends along backchannels, and he has no idea that this is just an arm wrestling match now. People judge you by what you say and do transparently.

Biden legit thinks he and Bibi are like cousins who grew up together who are having a tough fight, and Bibi is all fucking politics. He’d slit any throat he has to get what he wants, and he will bury Biden in a heartbeat.

Biden should go to Israel, and in a public address announce that the country is turning a corner: it will be safer than ever, and America is going to assist with a long term peace process, which they won’t lead but will provide security guarantees for. And don’t tell Bibi any of this in advance. And when Bibi reacts, say that Bibi has lost his trust and that of the elected public, and they need to hold new elections before getting any new weapons. Get some 'nads, man!

I wouldn’t mind a complete cut-off in weapons, but I also wouldn’t mind if they continue to supply rocket defenses or something if its part of a pressure campaign to send Netanyahu packing. I want Israeli prosecutors and the Hague to argue over who gets to lock his ass up first.

andrewrgross , (edited )

That is very true. Joey Ayoub of The Fire These Times coined a phrase months ago for describing the mainstreaming of genocidal ideation among the public, which I keep returning to: “The Smotrich-ization of the Israeli public”. It’s real, and it’s terrifying.

Still, my impression is that Israelis are in a weird, weird, weird place:

  • They are largely supportive of the war, but most want a ceasefire deal that would bring home the hostages.
  • They are largely furious at Netanyahu, though his support has recently started to go back up.
  • There has been enormous pro-democracy anti-government protests before the war, then there were demonstrations demanding negotiations for a hostage release that were supposed to be explicitly distinct from anti-government demonstrators, and there are also pro-ceasefire, pro-hostage demonstrations that are explicitly NOT distinct from the pro-democracy anti-government demonstrations.
  • Most Israelis don’t believe the war has “gone too far”, but also many Israelis feel that the war has been mishandled (largely due to the cost on Israeli troops, the economy, and international standing).
  • There is support for the IDF, but also fury and blame at the IDF for failing so catastrophically during Oct. 7.
  • There is also widespread anger at the far right for insisting on exempting the ultraorthodox from conscription, while troop shortages force middle-age reservists back into service, but there’s no clear indication that anyone has any leverage to impose on the far and ULTRA FAR right, who have been essentially governing Israel with smug impunity for months now.
  • And, overall, Israelis seem to like Biden a lot.

I apologize that i don’t have sources for each of these, these are just a collection of insights I recall reading in the last few months.

Ultimately, I think they’re largely out of answers AND being herded aggressively by a well-tuned state propaganda machine, which means that I think their attitudes are in flux. I think they could be led in many directions, and many futures are possible. Right now though, the most successful shepherds are Smotrich and Ben-Givir.

Lastly, there are a few very small Palestinian-Jewish unity groups. These may look irrelevant considering their numbers are so few, but when people ask where we could find leaders capable of negotiating peace (considering most of the Palestinian ones have been killed to prevent any peace process), I think this would be where we’d find them. Despite their numbers, they terrify the far right. They face extreme threats of violence, and I think that reaction belies the threat they pose to Jewish Supremacy.

andrewrgross ,

This meme is bad.

  1. if you look closely, you’ll notice that there’s no real joke. Israel and Nazi Germany should date. That’s a shit tier joke. It’s relying on edginess too hope paper over that there’s no real humor.
  2. from a political commentary perspective, it’s awful. We have a colonial state founded by people who have experienced a collective tragedy that they then allowed to justify displacement of an indigenous population, followed by decades of alliance with Western imperialism and a slide to the hard right, with lots of delusion and gas lightning. And we have an aggrieved former great power looking to expand over neighbors while killing of undesirable immigrants. Yeah, two genocides. But they’re materially different in terms of approach, and the groups pictured hate each other. It’s like you know there’s atrocities, and you know Jews are involved, and that’s kind of the end of your insight but you really wanted to make a meme anyway.

Find something interesting to say.

Also, free Gaza, release the hostages, lock up Netanyahu and all the rest, etc etc

andrewrgross ,

Hold on a sec: self determination is always within the context of recognizing the right of self determination of other groups and the basic human rights of everyone involved.

Also, Israel already has millions of Palestinian citizens. And all of these people deserve a say in what the resulting arrangement looks like.

A two state solution is one possibility, but there is no strict requirement that it is the only or best way to serve the needs of those involved.

andrewrgross ,

I think you could argue this before the passage of the Nation State Law of 2018. But now it’s enshrined in law that the state exists to privilege Jews specifically and selectively. That’s really putting it all in black and white.

Also I get asked about why I didn’t criticize China or Russia or Iran etc, and the reasons are simple:

  1. I do
  2. my tax dollars didn’t support their misdeeds and
  3. I’m Jewish, so I have a huge investment in Israel’s actions. They insist that I be judged by their actions, so now I have to get involved. Also, I actually like Israel. I’d like it to be a liberal, multi ethnic democracy and not just another Middle Eastern martial theocracy with a Jewish twist.
andrewrgross ,

Oh, I see. Thank you for the clarification.

andrewrgross ,

I have good news: It exists! retrographer.org

A lot of them are unrecognizable, but here’s an example of a good one: retrographer.org/photos/4215

The bad news is that’s a bit limited. It was the senior project of a CMU student in 2010. It only exists for Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. If you wanted to make one for another city, though, I think you could contact the creator, ask for the code, and then recruit people to get a ton of photos from another city’s historical institutions, and then crowdsource geotagging them (which is what the guy did).

retrographer.org/learnMore

andrewrgross ,

As far as I can tell, that’s de rigeur for these now. It’s largely the same on both sides in the other war too.

I think international pressure needs to be brought to bear. I can appreciate that the end of the war will likely require unpopular concessions. But I think humanitarian concerns as well as the need to halt the advance of authoritarian nationalism around the world requires an end to the two big wars.

If we can’t find an end, the US should withdraw from both. Our role is prolonging them.

andrewrgross , (edited )

This is a good question.

I think I would support their defense more assertively if I was presented with a compelling case of what the options are, and what outcomes each might lead to.

Currently, I feel like I’m only really presented with the demand that we continue to send enough weapons with restrictions that we keep the war going, as a way to weaken Russia geopolitically and to give money to the military industrial complex without a clear plan beyond that, or any sign that a victory is on its way. And then eventually, Biden loses in part because his foreign policy is broadly unpopular, and most likely Trump cuts off all aid and the Russia conquers Ukraine.

I don’t see a coherent strategy to improve Ukraine’s negotiating position from where it is. Just a lot of jingoism. If there’s an actual plan to win, lay it out. Otherwise, it feels like the alternative is just the same outcomes currently on the table (or worse), but after more people are dead.

andrewrgross ,

I don’t really get how this analogy is useful. I’m not of the opinion that anything Russia is doing is justifiable or just.

Putin’s was of aggression is very bad. We agree on that.

andrewrgross ,

I appreciate that this is a little closer to an objective, but it doesn’t seem serious or coherent.

For instance, why not fully commit? Why not give Zalinsky full permission to do whatever he wants? Why not let him strike Moscow? Why not threaten Moscow with a direct American attack?

Are we willing to collapse the country or not? Are we committed to doing whatever it takes to ensure a complete victory for Ukraine or not?

People act as though anyone who discusses limits to assistance is a traitor to our ally like we haven’t already been placing huge limits on our assistance, and like they themselves aren’t all opposed to actually doing the things I think it would take to win.

Why are my limits a traitorous betrayal and Joe Biden’s limits courageous support of an ally when it’s not clear that there’s a meaningful difference in the outcome of the war?

andrewrgross ,

Is this based on anything? I don’t know if this is meant to be taken literally, or if this is some kind of coded reference.

I feel like that would garner headlines.

andrewrgross ,

That is very, very interesting. I thought you were just being cryptic, but I’m really glad I asked for clarity, because this was super informative. Thank you.

andrewrgross ,

It’s got real Dr.Strangelove vibes.

“Mr. President! We cannot allow a mineshaft gap!”

These fucking clowns. If you assume the absolute worst of them, you’ll rarely be surprised.

andrewrgross ,

When I see these comments, I wonder if you understand that this isn’t effective politicking.

Will this bring you comfort when Trump wins? Explaining why you think Biden should have won?

You can’t logic the electoral outcome you want, matter how many links you include. It doesn’t matter that Trump is worse. We know. It’s not working.

Also: Biden needs a turnout operation. In 2020, it was all the Bernie lefties who actually knocked on doors. Biden supporters write checks, but ultimately you need folks to remind their neighbors to vote, and give people rides. I think most lefties will still turn out and vote for Biden. But they aren’t going to pull him across the finish line like they did last time.

Biden has to change course. I think he’ll have a very, very, hard time winning if he stays on the current course.

andrewrgross ,

I think that any coverage should simply ask organizers to comment.

This is such a propaganda tactic: no one can stop someone from showing up with any flag they want. If the organizers embrace it? Then the criticism is fair game.

But if they say something like ‘out of thousands of protesters who share our demand for peace, several brought inflammatory messages that don’t represent us’, then media has a duty to report that.

andrewrgross ,

They’re not “just” freedom fighters: they ARE freedom fighters, but they are also conservative religious freedom fighters who utilize indiscriminate violence to advance their cause of by any means necessary.

They are not morally upright heroes. I can’t support what they did. They are, however, also still freedom fighters. And it makes me very, very angry that their tactics have been successful after non-violence failed in 2018. It shouldn’t have come to this.

As Kennedy astutely observed, “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable”.

I cannot endorse the violence Hamas employs, but I also understand in such a context why others do. This was an inevitable outcome of extreme political disenfranchisement, and that makes me equally furious at the joint responsibility I see for the atrocities that have resulted.

andrewrgross ,

Oh, that’s cool! I’m excited to check this out. I like their content. I don’t love it enough to keep up with it (especially because they’re a little long) but I’m interested to hear their take.

andrewrgross ,

First, for supporters of Palestinian liberation who are unclear: @chakan2 is correct. Palestinians largely endorse Hamas at this point, and believe that the attack on Oct. 7 was a justified response to their treatment by Israel. I understand that this is inconvenient for those of us who support Palestinian liberation but do not approve of Hamas’ tactics, but it’s a reality that we need to accept and move forward on. I don’t believe that the endorsement of genocide by Palestinian civilians robs them of their right to life any more than I believe the widespread endorsement of genocide within Israeli public life after Oct. 7 robs them of their right to life and dignity as well.

As for your question, the short answer is that people aren’t good at crafting a nuanced stance on multi-axis conflicts with no clear Galactic Empire style baddy and a plucky, ethical resistance. Ultimately, many people have concluded that the Israeli government has more blood on their hands and a greater responsibility for Hamas’ use of violence than Hamas does. And so they’re inclined to view pro-Israeli stances skeptically in a blanket way.

As for the article: I think this is always distraction. I want Hamas and Israel to accept the terms of the current ceasefire, and return the hostages, withdraw from Gaza, and begin a peace process. I want Biden to use leverage to make that happen, and to stop financing and arming the genocide, regardless of what flags people carry in the streets.

If you live in NY, well then this matters. Figure out your communities. But for the rest of this, it’s just a smear job on Palestinian rights activism.

andrewrgross ,

A lot of people have pointed out inherent ideological components of this platform, but I would also suggest that the lean is likely in part from network effects.

How did each of us find our way here? Someone likely mentioned the platform on another social site, or linked a meme, or shared other content.

If the site has lots of left leaning content that gets shared by left leaning people in places where such people gather, it’s going to bais the new arrivals in a similar direction. This is true of most social spaces, I think. And it’s good! I want right wingers to hang out in right wing spaces like Twitter, just like I want them to hang out at their own bars and clubs, away from me.

andrewrgross ,

That’s fascinating.

Well, I guess these things are complicated.

andrewrgross ,

This sucks. I was really holding out hope that they might chart a better path forward than most of the alternatives.

andrewrgross ,

I’d like to go a bit deeper.

I don’t think people invented socially controlling practices because they found religion, I think they found religion to frame the invention of socially controlling practices.

Masturbation is a gratifying act that relives pressure to settle into a rigid domestic arrangement that serves to make more workers and soldiers, and create dependents that need fed, and whose well-being would be threatened if a parent became defiant and provoked the ire of elites.

Masturbation is good for the individual at the expense of the nation and its rulers. So it’s inevitable that priests would decry it as an affront against god, as that’s historically been their purpose.

andrewrgross ,

I posted a comment impulsively, then saw that you already gave the same answer better.

andrewrgross ,

Which part? I think this is all subjective opinion.

andrewrgross , (edited )

This is a great point.

The technology that excludes transwomen from the app is the clear warning that the app is populated exclusively for transphobes. It’s obviously wildly dangerous for a transwoman to be on the app.

The notion that AI is going to clock them is absurd AI hype. There’s no reason to expect AI to be capable of this kind of discernment, and that assumes you even had a training set. Where in the absolute fuck would someone find a training set like that?

Edit: I didn’t read the article. It seems it’s a lesbian dating app. Well, probably less dangerous for transwomen, but still not technically sound.

andrewrgross ,

Why do you guarantee that? It seems obviously wrong, on a technical level.

The point I’m making is that even if we take it as a given that a shrewd enough AI could correctly distinguish sex at birth – which I think is obviously impossible based on the appearances of many ciswomen and the nature of statistical prediction – you’d still need a training data set.

If the dataset has any erroneous input, that corrupts its ability, and the whole point of this exercise is trying to find passing transwomen. Why would anyone expect that training set of hundreds of thousands of supposed cis women wouldn’t have a few transwomen in it?

andrewrgross ,

Yeah, but the training set is nowhere near clean. That’s my point. “Close” is no where near good enough within this context,

andrewrgross ,

To add to this: Netanyahu has been on trial for corruption for years, and he’s been using the war as an excuse to avoid holding elections, which he would lose.

When the war ends, Bibi is going to jail. And would you look at that? He’s in a permanent war! What are the odds.

andrewrgross ,

Yeah. And it’s so bad that I feel like the functionality barely goes down.

They should release the following:

‘Out of an abundance of caution, we advise against any user charging this device and attempting to rely on it for communications or regular assistance. Fortunately, we’ve found a workaround and suggest customers looking to continue enjoying the benefits of the Humane pin consider wearing it down in an unpowered state. This will provide infinite battery life and a 100% reduction in unwanted heating while enabling users to continue to receive nearly all the same functionality to which they are accustomed.’

andrewrgross ,

Thank fucking God.

I’m not totally surprised. There was so much artificial strength projection, and a more desperate air to the late stage of the campaign that looked to me like a campaign that was seeing different info than what they were saying.

Hopefully, a lack of a super majority might limit the damage he’ll cause.

Also, I don’t want the US to meddle in foreign countries’ affairs, but I’d like our leaders to refrain from flattering and supporting nationalists and authoritarians.

andrewrgross ,

I think a polite congratulation and a continued offer to cooperate is fine. I was just disappointed that Biden through Modi a state dinner. That’s kind of crazy.

I believe he did it because everyone in Washington worries about the big recently industrialized countries embracing China more than the US, but I don’t think that’s ultimately a good use of our influence in the long-term.

andrewrgross ,

The impression is surprisingly bad.

Still weird, though. But I guess this is what we’ve got to get used to. Eventually, they’ll probably sound much more convincing.

andrewrgross ,

Are you saying that if the turkey that I mailman is frosty it could jujubee the training data microwave?

andrewrgross ,

To add to this, I’ve been using GIMP on and off for a decade and I’ve never given any thought to the name. It’s all capitalized. I didn’t think it was a backronym, I thought it was just an acronym.

I’ve used this in professional settings (I used to work in academic molecular bio), and I was very evangelical about it. Especially because we’re not doing high-level artistic work, we just sometimes need something for processing microscope images or making graphics for scientific publications.

I’d say to any and everyone, “You know, you don’t have to pay an annual subscription fee for Photoshop: there’s this free, open-source program called GIMP that does most of what you need and you don’t have to pay a thing! Want me to install it for you?”

I didn’t even think to be embarrassed about the name, and no one ever seemed to care in conversation. As others have said, the bigger impediments are people’s attachment to commercial software and interface challenges. This is just an absolutely silly complaint to make.

Biden details a 3-phase hostage deal aimed at winding down the Israel-Hamas war (apnews.com)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden on Friday detailed a three-phase deal proposed by Israel to Hamas militants that he says would lead to the release of the remaining hostages in Gaza and could end the grinding, nearly 8-month-old Mideast war....

andrewrgross ,

This is a good question.

My analysis:

First and foremost: It is not a demand that Israel accept a ceasefire, it is a demand that Hamas accept the terms of a ceasefire. Sometimes this is a very subtle difference, but one the key elements of a ceasefire negotiation is that each side is trying to continue fighting while making their adversary look like the aggressor. So far, it looks like Biden has moved slightly, but he still is not applying pressure on Netanyahu to end the war.

Second: Continuing on that last point, there is no leverage. Biden has persistently chosen not to do anything that would actually apply pressure. He has deferred to Netanyahu’s judgement and supported him while gradually shifting in tone, but it’s become 1000% clear that Netanyahu will stop when he is forced to, and not a moment sooner.

Third: The focus is constantly on micromanaging the situation. Debating how many civilians can get killed, what fraction of the homes can be demolished, how much territory Israel can appropriate in Gaza. None of this actually addresses the foundational issues: one side is imposing apartheid with genocidal intent on a neighbor that is largely powerless, and the other side’s only real avenue for expressing itself is through terrorism. Which is bad for both sides. If these realities persist, then the cycle that has governed nearly three generations is allowed to continue. There must be a breaking point in that cycle, and referring back to point 2: it’s going to have to be imposed on the leadership in Israel. They WILL NOT accept it willingly.

In summary, this is a very welcome change in narrative for Biden, but we are far past the point of fiddling with narratives. We need policy action, and it’s incredible that he’s still dug in like this after another state department official just resigned because she said that she was being pressured to be an accomplice in breaking US law against knowingly aiding war crimes.

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