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TropicalDingdong

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TropicalDingdong ,

it’s also just wrong.

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/f1e302cd-aac2-48c0-8cfd-d62db88a9ebb.jpeg

It’s the lead folks. Biden should be crediting the EPA.

TropicalDingdong ,

Thanks for that.

TropicalDingdong ,

I wonder if he’ll show up to Trumps trial in a blue suit with a red tie.

TropicalDingdong ,

The real story:

Democratic primary 2020, total votes: 14,263.

Democratic primary 2024 total votes (before run-off): 12,761.

~10% drop in Democratic primary voters (reliable D’s).

Lauren Ashley Simmons will win this district, but the things that is telling is the drop in voter engagement. These are the only data points we’ll be getting on this going into the election.

But a 10% drop in reliable D’s electoral engagement should be more than concering to Democrats.

TropicalDingdong ,

Yep, data from the 146th.

TropicalDingdong ,

I mean, those are fine editorials, but the data is what the data is.

This isn’t the only data point. Democratic voter engagement is depressed when compared with 2020.

We’re only going to get a few more of these before the big game, and we should weight them more heavily than typical polling.

TropicalDingdong ,

Just another data point.

Put it on the pile.

TropicalDingdong ,

I mean that’s what the polling data is showing us.

Its a bit dated, but this specific type of poll is less common:

But some have spotlighted a potential saving grace for Democrats. In addition to showing Trump ahead by an average of four percentage points, the poll asked voters about a race without Biden. An unnamed “Democratic candidate” shifts the race by 12 points on the margins, turning a four-point Democratic deficit against Trump into an eight-point lead, 48 percent to 40 percent.

Whats really, really, REALLY interesting to me about this is that it ends up with the same 12 point spread that actually appeared previously in the differential polling error associated with the 2020 election. In that election, Biden was +12 going into the election (composite of polls October/ November), and basically tied.

Biden ended up under-performing his polling by an average of 4 points, and Trump over-performed his polling by an average of 8 points.

So if you swap out Biden for “Generic Democrat”, you cover, almost precisely, how much so we expect Biden to under-perform his polling come November.

I mean, Biden should have been grooming Buttigieg, grooming Kamela. We’ve got Elizebeth Warren, we’ve got Gretchen Whitmer, we’ve got Nina Turner. Ron Wyden, Jay Inslee, even Gavin Newsom (although he is not super popular).

I mean shit you really want to fuck with the opposition? Fucking run Laura Kelly, Democratic governor of Kansas. She can run on abortion as a right, based on her recent striking down of the anti-abortion legislation there.

Like the bench is deep for popular Democrats if you put even a bit of effort into collating a list.

TropicalDingdong ,

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/36d2d1f3-97bc-415b-9a71-0723c23bf3c0.gif

By which I mean that I totally agree, but am also exasperated.

The only way I think we can change things is to get the dummy-thicc blue-no-matter-who crowd to realize and give up on Biden as a candidate. We can’t even really start the conversation with him still in the room. Move the electorate and, more importantly, the media landscape; have them come to terms with this, we can take it to the convention and see what happens.

I called this super far out, like, 8 months ago? 10 months ago? If Lemmy had a decent way to search my comments I could find it.

TropicalDingdong ,

Nina Turner, Inslee, Witmer, Wyden, all super progressive. But I don’t care any more.

Like, at this point, fucking run anyone that can win. I’m just trying to put 4 more years on the count-down-to-all hell breaks loose clock. And issue I have currently is that Biden doesn’t get us there while his apologists around here claim we have no other options.

When I’m thinking about this, I’m thinking who do I want to play the game against? Who do I want sitting on the other side of the table from me in this fight? I don’t want to fight an emboldened, empowered, free from the rule of law fascist uprising. I’m too tired for that. My hips aren’t as good as they were when I was 24. I need a soft bed at night.

TropicalDingdong ,

He’s just trying to grow his base. I think if you were looking to Musk for your guiding light on voting, you were probably already voting Trump.

TropicalDingdong ,

He can only further with those who already believe in him.

TropicalDingdong ,

I support this.

The Washington Post said it had the Alito flag story 3 years ago and chose not to publish (apnews.com)

Nine days after The New York Times reported about the political symbolism of an upside-down American flag that flew at U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s home, the Washington Post acknowledged it had the same story more than three years ago and decided not to publish it....

TropicalDingdong ,

Catch and kill for fascism.

TropicalDingdong ,

Gonna have to read this legislation later.

Its not clear to me how and if this would work. Something to keep in mind is that because in Hawaii we don’t have the same school board -> city -> county -> state -> federal system that most other states have.

We have ‘city-counties’, so basically, we don’t really have cities in the same sense that other states have cities, which might pass their own individual polices, have their own police, etc.

What this does is put a disproportionate amount of power into county elected officials. And based on the make up of the islands, this law is specifically targeting Oahu county. The other counties have plenty of space to build more houses. We already have some Ohana unit laws on the books, but there are weird counter veiling forces at play in the county. For example, they passed the Ohana unit law, then almost immediately increased the setback requirements to basically make the Ohana unit law irrelevant for the vast majority. With one hand they said “You can put more structures on your property” but with the other they said “but not unless you have a VERY large parcel”. The vast majority of sfm in Honolulu county is tiny, like postage stamp tiny.

Add to this the extreme levels of corruption, where its common knowledge among builders that if you don’t bribe a clerk, you can expect to wait years to get a permit to build. Its just a very weird situation in general.

So in summary, we have these county governments, which are almost as powerful as the state government, but are subject to some wildly high degrees of corruption, and internally have their own power struggles. Its not clear to me this law will be in anyway meaningful. It kind of reminds me of how the hotel industry lobbied and got one of their own onto the county council to pass an AirBnB ban, which basically resulted in a local recession for the cottage industry of service professionals that had built up around it. Meanwhile, if you’ve got a couple million dollar mansion by the beach, you are somehow still able to do AirBnB without issue.

TropicalDingdong , (edited )

There was an immigrant friend of the family who during the Bush era (this was during what I would call the ‘height’ of the Muslim panic), who basically made the argument to me that even with all the hate, all the war-mongering, all the bullshit, that the US was the best country in the world. When we pressed him for why, his argument was basically, “The McDonald’s Dollar menu”.

This is decades ago, but his argument was that in-spite of everything else, he knew that in Amercica, at least his children would not starve, because they would always be able to afford ‘something’, however unhealthy, from the dollar menu.

I don’t think that America exists any more.

TropicalDingdong ,

Yeah we just go out to good food now and spend the same money.

Trump trial moves toward end: 5 takeaways on the closing arguments (thehill.com)

The prosecution contends the reimbursements were falsely classified as legal expenses to conceal their true nature — part of a hush-money deal with Daniels. Prosecutors also say this was done to affect the election’s outcome, not merely to save Trump personal embarrassment, and therefore amounts to election interference....

TropicalDingdong ,

This is what you want to watch to get a good view of where things go from here:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOPrCcPxKWg

Former Manahatten DA office prosecutor KFA who has been breaking it down.

Annoying af channel, but on these legal news issues, none better.

TropicalDingdong ,

mmm fruit

TropicalDingdong ,

So your telling me it’s all pro-fachism parties?

(…always has been)

TropicalDingdong ,

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Mutation Has Led to a New Type of Cat, Scientists Say [Sharon Adarlo | May 25 24 | Futurism] (futurism.com)

A research team has identified a new type of cat which has the typical adorable face and fur pattern of the black and white tuxedo cat, but with a difference: the fur on this feline’s back starts off with a solid color at its base, such as black, and gradually turns white at the tip — all caused by a unique mutation....

TropicalDingdong ,

New cat just dropped

TropicalDingdong ,

This highlights the importance of anonymity and things like federated spaces on the modern web.

The tendency for people to want to take credit for their work is also at issue here, but the old Internet has a stronger, “I am my username”, emphasis on anonymity and relatively little credit taking for creativity.

I think the focus on personalities, and on single platforms gives companies leverage over as a users and creators of the Internet.I think if we were less concerned about ownership and taking credit, and more concerned about distribution and access, we can make it basically impossible for companies to gain leverage over ideas.

I think also the modern, reactionary view of copyright law is deeply problematic and counter productive. I don’t think the online left quite realizes they can’t can’t have it both ways. Like I get the instinct towards protectionism of small creators, but I think that modern concepts of copyright are fundamentally flawed at both a fundamental legal.level, but also at a conceptual level for what they are ‘pre-supposed’ to protect.

ChatGPT Answers Programming Questions Incorrectly 52% of the Time: Study (gizmodo.com)

The research from Purdue University, first spotted by news outlet Futurism, was presented earlier this month at the Computer-Human Interaction Conference in Hawaii and looked at 517 programming questions on Stack Overflow that were then fed to ChatGPT....

TropicalDingdong ,

“Will this technology save us from ourselves, or are we just jerking off?”

https://y.yarn.co/6a678b39-5cf6-4258-b62d-10d1e5f55584.mp4

TropicalDingdong ,

I mean it’s not your brain dude, why do you care?

TropicalDingdong ,

“After years of trying, we decided to adopt…”

TropicalDingdong ,

It’s like those temporary class rooms they set as trailers on blocks in US schools.

It’s forty years later.

TropicalDingdong ,

So like, can you a record label sue another band for ‘sounding like’ the band that they are promoting?

It was more of a thing in the 90s, but there were always competing follow up bands (Sublime being followed by 311) that chased the sound of another artist.

Like should NSync be sued for being a boy band following in Backstreet Boys wake?

Not parody, but mimicry is fundamental to art.

I suppose my rather extreme views on copyright and up leaves me the outlier here, but I think the whole thing is rather absurdist.

TropicalDingdong ,

I mean maybe you should be looking it up in case law, because what it means in a dictionary is irrelevant relative to case law.

TropicalDingdong ,

He Trained Cops to Fight Crypto Crime

Allegedly. Also he registered the domains in his personal name and directly connected his bank accounts to the bitcoin transaction out of the system.

Probably most lemmy users are engaging in better opsec than this guy is. And it took them years to bust the guy. Just goes to show you that crime pays but botany doesn’t.

Israel’s military says it is fighting near central Rafah, apparently expanding its operation in the city. (www.nytimes.com)

Israel’s military said on Thursday that it was fighting in neighborhoods near the heart of the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, apparently expanding its campaign against Hamas in a week when Israel has faced mounting diplomatic and legal pressure over its war effort....

TropicalDingdong ,

Bidens red line:

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/78cd6741-2b5a-4c6a-905b-a8d7307ff8fd.gif

TropicalDingdong ,

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/dc7a0a26-59a0-47b1-a40b-ef19e13e5e53.gif

TropicalDingdong ,

Cyanoacrylate or elmers?

TropicalDingdong ,

…and no one evvver read it…

TropicalDingdong ,

Just post your searches and questions here and we’ll try to figure it out.

TropicalDingdong ,

Natalie Portman enjoys milk and ill behavior. If encountered to not threaten or she’ll send a frenchman to self destruct on you.

TropicalDingdong ,

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/91cd849f-e6a7-4c1d-9e49-06aa632806fd.png

TropicalDingdong ,

lemmynsfw.com/signup

TropicalDingdong ,

quack

TropicalDingdong ,

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/23dae542-99b8-4413-a1f6-16db4540c1ac.jpeg

TropicalDingdong ,

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/9af74ecf-1b53-45f2-b27b-b25a0edf4c88.png

TropicalDingdong ,

www.youtube.com/watch?v=d700g9X78cs&rco=1

TropicalDingdong ,

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TropicalDingdong ,

You know if you use temple_os you don’t have to worry about updates?

TropicalDingdong ,

“self-driving”

Someone else, forreal - driving

A couple years ago, we used to joke around the shop “Of course they used AI - An intern.”

TropicalDingdong ,

I live by the water. Big water. The kind of water that kills people every month.

I’m shocked at how many local kids don’t know how to swim, but live less than 100m from the water.

TropicalDingdong ,

I get down to the water about twice a day, but I’m not always available. I surf and am a strong swimmer, and years ago was trained in water rescue, CPR, first aid, etc.

We had a tourist go out in what the neighborhood lovingly refers to as the ‘wrong way’ from our local spot, which is a easy 1-3 foot left on typical days in south/ west swells, but turns into a HUGE 8-12 ft right/ left/ center/ choppy fucking mess in heavy swells.

This tourist went out on a day when none of the locals were heading out, and immediately went right to the ‘wrong way’, which is like, about a quarter mile of 15ft basalt cliffs, with sharp af rocks and caves underneath.

That area to the right gets a CRAZY current under heavy swells because the water has no-where else to go, on top of having massive bangers coming in and pushing you into the rocks. Even the best surfers at our beach avoid that area, because if you get stuck there, you are fucked.

Anyways. Tourist almost instantly got into trouble. They got knocked off their board and very quickly were getting smashed by the rocks. At one point they got pulled under the rocks. Luckily my buddy was fishing near by and with the help of a neighbor kid, they pulled him out. But that buddy is not really a surfer. Like he fishes, but he is not a strong swimmer. Dude came out and was like, definately concussed. Was talking about how he learned to surf in New York and we were like “Yeah sure buddy, lets get you to whatever airbnb you were at so they can take you to the hospital.”

Ocean isn’t a fucking joke.

TropicalDingdong ,

“Do you remuary… –the 21st night of Sepuary?”

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