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TropicalDingdong

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TropicalDingdong ,

If they don’t individually own the property but pay for upkeep and there is no landlord… that’s a housing cooperative, no?

Squatter mansion.

TropicalDingdong ,

Because its pleasurable to believe in “secret knowledge”, that you are in the knowing group, and everyone else is the “out group”.

GME, and its associated cult.

Christians and Zionists.

Qanon.

Its all basically the same at its roots, which is that humans take pleasure in a good story, and rather than believe what we think is most likely, we more often choose to believe that which makes us feel special.

TropicalDingdong ,

There and better and worse variants, but the fundamental issue I’m identifying is the tendency to want to believe ‘good stories’. I think it’s a profoundly human flaw, related to our evolution and history as a species that tells stories to transmit information. We believe a good story. It’s pleasurable to lose yourself in story. You remember good stories. But a story being ‘good’ has little and less to do with it being true.

While we’re discussing this issue in the light of conspiracy theories with no basis, I think the flaw extends to all domains of human life where communication and evaluation are necessary.

TropicalDingdong ,

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/de04275f-04da-4b54-8d42-123bfa93a017.png

TropicalDingdong ,

Popcorn

TropicalDingdong ,

this is why we have to invest in things like pipeline now

Microsoft in damage-control mode, says it will prioritize security over AI (arstechnica.com)

Microsoft is pivoting its company culture to make security a top priority, President Brad Smith testified to Congress on Thursday, promising that security will be “more important even than the company’s work on artificial intelligence.”...

TropicalDingdong ,

Scientists in the room who have to base their experiments off other peoples data and results:

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/4a263582-8041-4f4c-8202-4c8a06b2403b.png

Tongue in cheek but this is actually giving me particular headache because of some results (not mine) that should have never been published.

TropicalDingdong ,

That or dumb money is just dumb, and if the cost of money is free, you can just guess at things that might work with thousands of monkeys hitting typewriters.

TropicalDingdong ,

People will accept anything to not be inconvenienced in a purely consumer society.

TropicalDingdong ,

Bruh, in Idiocracy, they at least wanted to do the right thing, even if they were too dumb to do so.

TropicalDingdong ,

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/32fb3d80-28ba-4b64-ac65-e608768ebe27.png

TropicalDingdong ,

I mean, I think we’ve been saying this since November.

TropicalDingdong ,

Could you get a couple whistles at ‘come online’ at various speeds?

You might need some funnels to concentrate the air, but if you might be able to tune it so it works in the lower speed, 0-30 range.

Otherwise, if you can could also get a Raspy and a gyroscope to play them as recordings when certain tilt requirements are met.

TropicalDingdong ,

Could you imagine if Israel had to pay for the actions of its military on their own?

TropicalDingdong ,

Video of it working:

dailymail.co.uk/…/Video-Turkish-police-arrest-stu…

I’m more interested to know how they got caught. It sounds like they weren’t confident enough to keep their cool.

TropicalDingdong ,

Could have began investigation of these things on day 1 of the new administration/ congress.

TropicalDingdong ,

Man bites dog.

TropicalDingdong ,

Is this who I think this is?

OH SHIT YEAH MIDWESTERN TECHNOLOGY PRAGMATIST VIDEO HAS DROPPED!!!

edit: Its a remix?

TropicalDingdong ,

THE WATER INSIDE IS RECYCLED!!!

TropicalDingdong ,

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/2a482989-1c53-40c7-8fb7-74f9315559d9.png

TropicalDingdong ,

That’s a good question. Anecdotally, when the fight isn’t there, grass roots org tend to diffuse and diminish. I mean look at BLM and the networks that were present in 2020 versus 2021. Once Biden was in office and Trump wasn’t there as opposition, the movement practically evaporated. I’m not sure anecdotes are sufficient for these modern times however. I know that groups like Patriot Front have expressed difficulties recruiting. It also might be a “we didn’t look as carefully as we did previously” kind of monitoring bias.

There are mutual aid groups that were doing extensive monitoring in 2019-2022. I couldn’t speak to whats happened, but I would generally tend to trust the numbers being put out without better information.

TropicalDingdong ,

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/0b28f9c2-1c8a-4888-ad37-e4255aedc002.gif

TropicalDingdong ,

Can we start a gofundme for @Zerush to buy more pixels?

There is enough jpeg artifacts in this one to fill a museum.

TropicalDingdong ,

Oh thank golly. My mimsy feels so much cleaner.

TropicalDingdong ,

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/4812ca84-d0ca-43ec-a770-f02c83212dca.gif

TropicalDingdong ,

I mean jeeze why not just tell people to drink bleach while you are at it. /s

TropicalDingdong ,

Lets see if they show up for the election. If so, this is evidence for the effectiveness of Macrons gambit.

TropicalDingdong ,

I mean I think this represents the core of Macrons strategy. Force the issue. Don’t wait. Get people emotionally worked up and do so quickly. Don’t wait for things to cool off.

TropicalDingdong ,

Yes, yesterday. There are a wide range of views as to this being a good idea or not.

TropicalDingdong ,

It definitely fits the bill of the “bold move Cotton” meme template.

I personally side with WWII General Pattons quote on planning:

"“A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week.”

Too many political leaders think they have until next week to figure out how to deal with the rising tide of fascism globally. They don’t. If Macron thinks he’s got the nuts or at least a hand that plays, I say push the chips. Because next week you won’t have a stronger position.

TropicalDingdong ,

15$?

Register a domain name based on some hair brain fantasy for the year.

Then spend the year ideating and fantasizing about what might be while doing nothing.

Thats a whole year of value for 15 bucks.

TropicalDingdong ,

I’m gonna pay my $15 to watch.

TropicalDingdong ,

You are misinterpretting the XKCD.

Its not as if incumbents with approvals this low haven’t competed. They have.

We have the data on it. You don’t win the presidency with an approval this low.

TropicalDingdong ,

My (parent) comment didn’t mention Te-felon Don.

So I’m sticking with them not understanding the XKCD or the parent.

TropicalDingdong ,

I think that tells you everything you need to know about Biden as a candidate.

Non-viable. If you can’t out approval a 34-count convicted felon, we shouldn’t be running you as candidate.

TropicalDingdong ,

No, its not. Again, a misunderstanding of what was said.

The point isn’t that it hasn’t been attempted. It has, repeatedly. The XKCD is all examples of things that haven’t happened.

The example provided is something specific that has been attempted, repeatedly, where we know the answer (not the felonious aspect, but the low approval. Don being a felon was never a point of discussion).

Its both a misunderstanding of the XKCD and the statement.

Plenty of incumbents with low approval have run. They don’t win their elections. We’ve got lots of data on this.

TropicalDingdong ,

Sure, but its still a misinterpretation.

Consider why the comic cites categorical reasons, not continuous ones.

Specifically, I can put a mean and a standard error down on polling, approval, and using a factor like incumbency calculate a probability of re-election based on a given approval or polling metric.

Polling and approval data, is something at least hypothetically ‘exists’ for all candidates, ever, even if it went unmeasured.

And it does exist for these candidates. Don’s felony would fall within the bounds the premise of this comic, but not polling or approval. The relationship between polling, approval, and incumbancy doesn’t because we do actually have those information on those things. We can look at all presidents prior to now that we have data for, we can divide them into ‘re-elected’ and not ‘re-elected’, calculate a mean and standard error of their polling, and their approval, anything we can measure, and look at the probability of occurrence for the thing given their polling. We couldn’t actually do that with any of the factors in the XKCD because we’d be dividing by zero. We literally couldn’t create the statistic to get a probability distribution from because there are no examples of President running has parameter “thing B”, which is the actual point of the comic. “thing B” gets more and more ridiculous as the comic goes along.

Why the current example isn’t that case is that we do have examples of incumbents with low approval trying to be elected. The “thing B” about the incumbent exists and has been tested, so we can calculate the probability distribution.

TropicalDingdong ,

against a convicted felon. And we have the data on it. You don’t win the presidency with a felony conviction.

…

I mean the felon part actually would be in bounds of the logic of the comic. We can’t observe the probability of a felon getting elected because it hasn’t occurred before, and therefore we can’t calculate a statistic.

TropicalDingdong ,

Its a divide by 0. We can absolutely put down a probability of Bidens likelihood to win based on current polling or approval, because we have an N to divide by.

We don’t have an N to divide by in the felony issue (or any of the issues cited in the comic), and so can’t calculate a probability.

TropicalDingdong ,

It absolutely does. Biden is the right pick over Trump.

I mean that’s an editorial or moral opinion. Which is fine, but not relevant.

Trump was more than 3% LOWER in approval.

Was. Not is. Trumps approval was also much higher then Bidens ever has been at some points. Do those times not count?

What should matter is that right now. Trumps approval is 5 points higher than Biden. Not at some other time. Not cherry picking one time for one and a different time for the other. Just the facts ma’am.

Living in exacerbated disbelief of reality or in a heighten state of moral panic over the fact that, apparently, the country approves of Trump more than they do Biden does nothing to change the political reality we find ourselves in.

There is no moral comment being made when we show through data that Biden is losing this election. Living in a constant state of outrage because reality doesn’t meet your expectations and other people obviously don’t share them is delusional to the point of exhaustion.

TropicalDingdong ,

Yeah, I mean, its super interesting in an academic way.

And, you know… panic inducing in almost every other way.

If Cornell West hadn’t clustered the fuck out of his candidacy, we could have been seeing a Green party & Independent coalition representing a viable third party threat this year. The Green party is the only third party that had the infrastructure in place to get onto the ballot in all 50 states. But West screwed the pooch. I think he with Stein as running mate might have actually been able to make it happen, purely based on how hated the two extant candidates are.

TropicalDingdong ,

Thats just not how probabilities work.

TropicalDingdong ,

The comic is highlighting the absurdity of taking something that is technically undefined, and thinking that you’ve got a counter-factual (with is, like, exactly what is happening for most people in this thread).

If no felons have ever previously run for president, you have no data on how felons perform. You have an N of 0 because the event hasn’t occurred. Its a null result. NA. Undefined. You have no information. Its untested.

Even further, it highlights the very exact point of the comic, which is that when you rely on currently has an N of zero as a counter factual, you are going beyond the scope of what your data is capable of speaking to.

To assess the impact of a candidate with a felony on their chances of winning a presidential election, we need to know how many felons have run and how many have won. However, if no felon has ever run for president, we have zero data points for both felons running and winning. This means our calculation for the probability of a felon winning would involve dividing by zero, which is mathematically undefined and impossible. Without any previous instances to examine, we simply cannot make a statistically grounded prediction about the impact of a felony on a candidate’s electoral prospects; we lack any empirical evidence to base such an assessment on.

TropicalDingdong ,

Oh my good clam-baking mullet wearing jesus my dude.

Why is it always projection with you people?

The thing that has never happened: a felon is a candidate. We have no information on this or how it will impact the results of a presidential campaign.

You want to interpret this as a result, but you shouldn’t. We have no data here.

TropicalDingdong ,

Except that we actually have approval ratings and polls for about 90 years of elections. From which we can build the appropriate counter-factuals to actually create a statistic because an approval rating is a continuous variable, not a discrete variable. An approval rating of 51% is directly comparable to an approval rating of 31%, and all Presidents ‘have’ this condition, even if it went unmeasured. I also have a sufficient range of variation to build the negative case example because I have presidents and candidates across the range of variation observed in the condition, and variation in the outcome: winning an election.

Being a felon is also a condition, but 100% of the data we have is “not a felon”. And we have no variation in the observed outcome. Some non-felons won, some non-felons lost. We’re not testing if they are a felon or not, we’re testing if they win the election or not.

Look I get that this is beyond you, but you really aren’t making the point you think you are here. Also, you are on the wrong side of the fallacy the comic is presenting. I’m not trying to interpret being a felon has on becoming president, you are. I’m interested in what the polling data has to say about the probability of winning, which is a statistically and scientifically grounded thing to do.

You mostly seem like you have an axe to grind because Biden is losing the election for you. I’m sorry for that.

TropicalDingdong ,

Obama was pretty firmly in the internet age, and left office in his second term with an approval rating of 55%.

TropicalDingdong ,

Biden, 37%

Trump, 43%

All that matters.

TropicalDingdong ,

All presidents have a ‘height’ measurement, so we can make a probability distribution and look at the likelihood of an incumbent winning based on their height.

…osu.edu/…/does-height-make-right-u-s-presidents-…

And because its continuous, we can extend that to Presidents whose heights haven’t previously been observed.

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