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Anyone else feel like Trump has a much higher chance to win then Presidency than Kamala?

Idk, when you look at the entire picture, does Trump not have the far easier path to 270 this year? He only has to win 2 states (PA & GA) and that’s it, he wins. Kamala has to win at the minimum 3, and if she loses PA, it becomes even harder for her. Trump could just spend all of his money campaigning in those 2 states and get back in the White House. Yet these odds seem to disagree with me.

Am I trippin?

jordanlund ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

Harris has to win 3 states, PA, MI, and WI. Losing any one of those three throws it to Trump.

It is going to be a nail biter!

BadmanDan OP ,

That’s what I’m saying, I think MI will go to Harris, but if she loses PA, Trump just needs NV & AZ and he’s going back to the White House.

While if Harris loses PA, she HAS to win GA, there’s no path to victory for her without GA in this scenario.

jordanlund ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

MI will be complicated because of the Muslim vote and Gaza.

BadmanDan OP ,

I don’t think that’ll matter, Trump BARELY won MI in 2016 by less than 10k votes, and that was with Russian Psyop Jill Stein stealing votes from Hillary there.

In 2020, Michigan had the highest youth turnout in the country and Biden won it by 150k votes.

I don’t see how Trump can flip that state back, those are insane margins.

jordanlund ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

Clinton in Michigan was just stupid, she thought it was in the bag and failed to campaign there. That hurt her more than Stein did.

But the youth vote is fickle, they turned against Biden there this year, he was never going to win MI which is one of the reasons he dropped out.

BadmanDan OP ,

Regardless of turnout, I just don’t see a 150k margin being overcome in just 4 years. Harris would have to lose an insane amount of voters and Trump would have to gain a lot of voters all within 4 years. I just don’t see him winning that state.

jordanlund ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

All it takes is for the Muslim vote to stay home.

www.cnn.com/2023/11/04/politics/…/index.html

“Michigan has more than 200,000 Muslim American voters — 146,000 of whom turned out to vote in 2020 –— according to an analysis by Emgage, an organization that seeks to build the political power of Muslim Americans. Biden won Michigan — a state that narrowly went to Donald Trump in 2016 — by 155,000 votes.”

BadmanDan OP ,

But how many of them actually voted for Biden?

jordanlund ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

npr.org/…/arab-americans-michigan-voters-biden-is…

“AP reported that 64% of Muslims nationwide supported Biden in 2020, while 35% supported Trump. And in heavily Arab American counties in Michigan, voters went for Biden by a little less than 70%.”

So 154,000 voted, 70% for Biden. 107,800 or so.

kent_eh ,

MI will be complicated because of the Muslim vote and Gaza.

Which is just bizarre, because Trump has shown he is much more willing to suck up to whatever Netanyahu wants than Biden or Harris.

Anticorp ,

It doesn’t matter to trump voters what he shows, they only believe what he says, not what he does.

The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.

tate ,
@tate@lemmy.sdf.org avatar

Losing any one of those three throws it to Trump.

Unless she win NC or OH. She’s doing really well in both.

I think this is going to be a giant blowout win for Kamala. But, please, no one get cocky! Everyone has to actually vote!

jordanlund ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

I don’t see NC, OH, AZ, NV, or GA going to Harris. It’s wishful thinking, but I wouldn’t count on any of them.

KingThrillgore ,
@KingThrillgore@lemmy.ml avatar

Nate Silver still has the EVs for Trump. Like he did in 2016. I’m making no illusions of the future. All my plans assume a Trump victory.

Unfortunately his models are paywalled so I cannot completely confirm this.

Register to vote at vote.org

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