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razorwiregoatlick ,
@razorwiregoatlick@lemmy.world avatar

I know the top comments in these subs is always something along the lines of “fuck the polls! Go vote!” I agree but damn it is nice to get some positive news now and then!

FlyingSquid OP ,
@FlyingSquid@lemmy.world avatar

Right? Enjoy something positive for a few seconds!

modifier ,

I agree, and also, go vote!

chiliedogg ,

Definitely don’t look at polls from the swing states then.

barsquid ,

That’s good news but still too close. We all need to continue informing the public that Donald is a dementia-ridden geriatric physically and mentally unfit for the office.

jordanlund ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

As with all the discussions on national polls, it’s necessary to point out that national polls have no meaning. We don’t have national elections.

Blue states are gonna blue state and red states are gonna red state, so the President will be decided by a handfull of states that don’t reliably vote one way or another, and frankly, we just don’t have enough good data on a Harris nomination to say one way or another.

Looking at the notable states I’ve looked at before, this data is from before Biden dropped out.

Arizona - Trump +6 vs Harris
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/arizona/

Nevada - Trump +10 vs Harris
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/nevada/

New Mexico - No data for Harris.

Georgia - Trump +5 vs Harris
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/georgia/

North Carolina - Trump +4 vs Harris
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania - Trump +4 vs Harris
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Trump +5 vs Harris
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/michigan/

Wisconsin - Tied.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/wisconsin/

Minnesota - No data for Harris.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/minnesota/

Harris also puts Virginia in play now as well, in what was assumed to be a blue state, now Trump +4.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/virginia/

So this is her starting point. She has 105 days to turn this around. The Democratic convention in August is key.

As of right now though? Here’s the map:

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/0725cda4-54a7-417d-a815-c5fd24c109a2.jpeg

Natanael ,

Those polls don’t account for anything that happened after the switch, like the impact of the record number of donations and news blitz. Need to wait for the next round before we really have any idea, and a few more in a few weeks to see where it levels off

jordanlund ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

Yup, like I say, this is the bottom.

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