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Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost

Donald Trump has not received a poll boost in the first presidential election survey conducted since the failed assassination attempt on Saturday.

The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point on 46 percent, compared to the president’s 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- two percentage points.

SSJMarx ,

This is pretty much exactly what I was expecting.

How many people are going to go switch to Trump just because he got shot at? It aint the 80s anymore, the average American has picked their fukken side and the game is all about which side can get their base to show up.

NotMyOldRedditName ,

The GOP game is actually how can we discourage the democrats from showing up because the core republican base is going to show up anyway.

Making voting harder favors the GOP.

SirDerpy , (edited )

They don’t represent my best interests even a little bit. My state will cast all its electoral ballots for Trump.

I’m going to vote Green. If they get 5% then a hard left platform will be on every American ballot in 2028. That’ll turn Democrats left. Or, a Justice Democrat jump ship and split the vote.

Ballot access '28 is actual leverage on the system. Better than wasting my vote on literally no change in the outcome while endorsing either of the fuckwads who can’t even deliver lines.

Third election, same thing. Hoping the masses learn how their system works eventually.

edit: There’s lots of down votes without explanation. This is why everything sucks: No one wants to learn and sacrifice anymore.

SSJMarx ,

I’ve voted green for prez the last two elections for the same reason, down ballot I check on what my local dsa/frso/psl are saying and do that. I live in California so it’s not like it mattered - but frankly I would do the same if I was in a swing state. It’s the Dems’ job to make me want to vote for them, not my job to fall in line no matter what.

samus12345 ,
@samus12345@lemmy.world avatar

https://betanews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/cut_off_nose.jpg

SSJMarx ,

🤡 🤡 🤡

dvoraqs ,

My take on the down votes is that it is dangerous to spread ideas about voting third party in a democracy with an election system that mechanically only supports two parties.

Even if you’re in a “safe” state, people from states that are more in the margins may hear the sentiment and want to participate out of principle. It makes the opposition more likely to win.

If we want the Democrats to win in the end, it’s safer to be pushing for engagement on all fronts. That’s what the Republicans are doing and they can actually be trusted to vote.

SirDerpy ,

If we want the Democrats to win in the end

Even after understanding, you head right back to the bullshit they feed us.

I don’t give a flying fuck about Democrats. I want me and the vast majority of Americans to win.

dvoraqs ,

I think you are misunderstanding how the election system works. It is the Democrats vs Republicans and nothing else until a third party can get big enough to overtake one of the two and then it’s still just two major parties.

Save your energy for reforming the election system and then advocate for what you want. We have to be realistic here.

SirDerpy ,

You’re entrenched in a false dichotomy seeking bandwagon validation. I won’t give it to you for your own good.

dvoraqs ,

I hope you are happy helping the Republicans win

SirDerpy ,

My vote for President has no impact on the outcome.

Triasha ,

I vote left in primaries and Dem in generals.

If we get some ranked choice then it will be different. Until then, we gotta play it safe.

SirDerpy ,

Playing it safe is how we got here, apathetic moderate.

Triasha ,

Reckless accelerationism is the effective altruism of the left.

SirDerpy ,

Bewildering, lukewarm understanding is the effective altruism of the neolibs.

cisco87 ,

I love the democrats saying that if Trump wins there is no more democratic, but as soon as someone says that they’re not voting democrats then just go brrr, democracy is fine until you vote what we tell you

SirDerpy , (edited )

If I lived in a purple state I’d vote Democrat for President to attempt short term harm reduction. I don’t even believe in it. But, I’d do it for the most underprivileged who can’t risk the alternative. If I lived in a blue state it’d depend on the nuance of the situation.

But, I live in a deep red state. My vote for President has absolutely no effect on the outcome of this election. I learned and reasoned a way to possibly empower the change most Democratic voters want to see in the next election. I don’t care about Green any more than Democrats, except that Green has a nice simple platform that they’ve been loyal to for decades and I agree with.

But, everyone thinks everyone else is too stupid to understand a couple paragraphs and choose wisely for themselves. That’s why everything sucks. We don’t trust each other at all.

Furbag ,

You’re getting downvoted because thinking that Green getting 5% of the vote will cause Democrats to pull left is a laughable fantasy. Nothing that any 3rd parties do affect their decisions or their overall platform. It’s all about money. You have a better chance of affecting Democratic or Republican policy if you donate a million dollars to one of their fundraisers than you do voting for Green, Libertarian, Independent, or whatever else for the rest of your entire life.

Without ranked or approval-based voting reform, nothing will ever split up the political duopoly in this country. We should be focusing our efforts on that, starting with local elections and working our way up. Down ballot races are arguably more impactful to your day-to-day life than which ass ends up in the Oval Office chair.

I get that voting while living in a state that is guaranteed to break for Trump or Biden feels like an exercise in futility. I’m not here to convince you to change your vote to Dem or Rep, you should feel entitled to do what you want with your vote, but stop pretending like throwing away your vote on the 3rd party candidate with no chance of winning and patting yourself on the back is some noble endeavor.

SirDerpy ,

You’re getting downvoted because thinking that Green getting 5% of the vote will cause Democrats to pull left is a laughable fantasy.

If their platform, which is what Sanders watered down twice, is on every American’s ballot in 2028, then the Democrats will be forced left because they can’t weed out the choice in their crooked primary like they’ve done twice already.

The rest of your reply falsely equates my premise that Democrats will be forced left to a third party victory. It’s strawman, bad faith.

Furbag ,

You asked for an explanation and I gave you one. Keep on dreaming that the only thing keeping Democratic establishment where they are on the political spectrum is that magic 5% number you tossed out and not the oodles of cash that their corporate donors supply them to keep things as they are.

SirDerpy ,

Your explanation lacks nuance and includes logical fallacy. My 14 year old nephew would see right through it and be able to explain why.

Furbag ,

I remain unconvinced.

TokenBoomer ,

Nothing has changed. Biden (or whoever the Democratic nominee is) will win the popular vote, Trump will win the electoral college, and America loses.

  • this is not election advice
Technological_Elite ,

Exactly. I didn’t buy the whole “Trump just secured his spot” headlines

DudeImMacGyver ,
@DudeImMacGyver@sh.itjust.works avatar

Yeah, he’s kinda capped out on support. That shouldn’t be too surprising.

Bluefalcon ,

I feel with Vance getting the VP pick and the Trump run RNC, that Republicans believe they have the numbers. They are doing nothing to get swing voters and I’m glad to see that.

xantoxis ,

They trust polls way, way too much.

Furbag ,

Andrew Yang sent out an email the other day that I partially agree with. The JD Vance pick is a bold signal that Trump thinks he’s already won. He could have picked Doug Bergum, Glenn Youngkin, Nikki Haley, or Marco Rubio and any of them would have brought something to the table that could potentially shore up Trump’s weaknesses in the upcoming election and reassured moderates, corporate donors, and minority groups that Trump had their best interests at heart. But instead he picked a junior senator with no legislative accomplishments, no real connections to business or Washington politicians, and no household name recognition, and only redeeming quality is that he has a law degree from Yale.

I would say it’s almost certain that he got picked because he made a statement that if he were the VP during Trump’s first term, he would not have certified the 2020 election results. Yikes.

I’m not surprised that Trump is packing his cabinet with dyed-in-the-wool loyalists. Part of the reason a lot of his plots failed in his first term is because career politicians refused to break the law at his behest. I don’t really see this backfiring for him since the VP pick is secondary to Trump’s own cult of personality. It’s not a strong VP pick, but it didn’t really matter who he picked. He could have picked Donald Trump Jr. to be his running mate and MAGA would have gone along with it.

Bluefalcon ,

So JD Vance has major ties to the tech industry. His book Hillbilly Elegy opened doors for him to be friends with Peter Thiel. Trump believes Vance will bring in the donors.

Vance was a “never Trumper”. If put in the same position as Pence, he will roll on Trump. Vance wants a career and being die hard Trump will not accomplish it long term.

cley_faye ,

Well, his “followers” where already convinced to vote for him, and he’s so far out that people that did not follow him already actually have enough brain to not equate “assassination attempt” with “he’s a hero”, so there’s that.

Tire ,

They way things work these days the shooting will be forgotten in 2 weeks.

derpgon ,

It’s been 2 days and I already stopped seeing posts about it.

pewgar_seemsimandroid ,

why does he look disabled?

Fedizen ,

If Trump loses the election he got shot for nothing and will have the worlds most hilarious breakdown. Make it so.

afraid_of_zombies ,

deleted_by_moderator

    •
    ChairmanMeow ,
    @ChairmanMeow@programming.dev avatar

    Trump is way too much of a wuss to cut himself, nor is he dextrous enough to professionally hide himself doing it.

    afraid_of_zombies ,

    deleted_by_moderator

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    BigDanishGuy ,

    GTFO with that bullshit! An innocent bystander got killed, show some respect. The projectile was capture on video, do you really think that Trump would let anybody shoot live ammo at him? Puleeese!

    afraid_of_zombies ,

    deleted_by_moderator

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    retrospectology ,
    @retrospectology@lemmy.world avatar

    I mean, someone quite literally did capture the bullet itself:

    https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/d1575fea-b033-43db-b194-08f1ae95d785.jpeg

    Fedizen ,

    is that even the bullet that him? it looks to low to hit the top of his ear

    PriorityMotif ,
    @PriorityMotif@lemmy.world avatar

    I was thinking that it might be blood carried by the bullet.

    On a side note, I wonder if that hat is bulletproof or something, it looks so weird.

    IzzyJ ,
    @IzzyJ@lemmy.world avatar

    That’s the perspective screwing you up, its hitting the ear on the other side of his head. Compare to where the bandage is on OP

    ChaoticEntropy ,
    @ChaoticEntropy@feddit.uk avatar

    This one?

    …cnn.com/…/doug-mills-trump-rally-photo-src-digvi…

    ProdigalFrog ,

    The bullet was captured in a photo midflight.

    cnn.com/…/doug-mills-trump-rally-photo-src-digvid

    I understand why you’d suspect this was a false flag, but it really seems like it wasn’t.

    Gsus4 ,
    @Gsus4@programming.dev avatar

    I don’t believe it was false flag, particularly because it is really easy to hit by mistake if you take a shot like that, but it is still intriguing that trump got out in the open to pose for his photo and exposing himself if there were a second or third shooters out there… but the simple explanation is that he is not smart enough to have considered that :)

    kembik ,

    The Pod Save America ep from today discussed this, Jon Lovett said that Trump has often talked about being a target in a public place and may well have thought about what he would do in that moment. ‘hes a showman’.

    RIPandTERROR ,
    @RIPandTERROR@sh.itjust.works avatar

    🤡Honk🤡

    Audacious ,

    I hope he has a breakdown and it’s public when he loses again.

    FelixCress ,

    “Frankly, we won this election” 😂

    sudo ,

    The shooting changed no ones votes yet it co.pletely demoralized the Dems to the point that their leadership think its over. The reason is they don’t know what to campaign on anymore. They’re too scared to run a negative campaign anymore. But they are also incapable of running any sort of positive campaign.

    PriorityMotif ,
    @PriorityMotif@lemmy.world avatar

    That’s why Biden said he would try to put a cap on rent increases. It will never happen, but it gets people’s attention.

    sudo ,

    Actually promising a better future is a better strategy than listing his ‘achievements’ IMO. Problem is everyone remembers how they didn’t get their 2k covid checks, or how their student loans weren’t forgiven.

    Passerby6497 ,

    Problem is everyone remembers how they didn’t get their 2k covid checks, or how their student loans weren’t forgiven.

    And every one of those stupid motherfuckers blames Biden instead of the republicans who stopped them…

    DudeImMacGyver ,
    @DudeImMacGyver@sh.itjust.works avatar

    I don’t think that’s true, most people probably do blame republicans if I had to guess. Do you have any source for that?

    SSJMarx ,

    On the issue of student loan debt the president theoretically has the power to cancel federal debt unilaterally, but Biden himself is opposed to doing it which is why he’s never done it. Same reason why there’s no planned parenthood clinics on federal land or anything like that.

    sudo ,

    If you’re only response to voters not liking you is “well they’re just stupid” then you’re gonna loose. Thats how democracy works.

    Leviathan ,

    I just never saw why he would. The people voting for him are cultists. The people against him have already been disgusted by him in one way or another, I just can’t imagine how getting grazed would change their minds.

    NotAnotherLemmyUser ,

    As much as I want this to be true (well I’d rather him be losing in all polls), this is disinformation at this moment.

    The poll they are referencing is this one: pro.morningconsult.com/…/2024-presidential-electi…(Archive link)

    Under “In this tracker”

    KEY TAKEAWAYS

    Trump maintains lead: Trump continues to lead Biden by 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%, unchanged from the previous week and superior to his standing in the lead-up to the first 2024 presidential debate, when the candidates were tied. The latest data was collected Friday through Sunday, meaning most responses were gathered before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

    Additionally, I don’t see any polls listed out here either that have been able to do a complete poll since the assassination attempt:

    www.realclearpolling.com/polls/…/trump-vs-biden

    doughless ,

    Maybe impartial information more than disinformation. It’s still likely the responses from late Saturday and Sunday would have impacted the percentage by at least 1 or 2 points. The fact it stayed the same hopefully means that at best it simply prevented Biden from taking the lead.

    NotAnotherLemmyUser ,

    Maybe, but considering this information is highlighted in the poll’s key points (immediately following and under the same point used for the title) doesn’t look good. It means that Newsweek is either doing a poor job at covering this (they didn’t even provide a direct link to the poll), or they are intentionally leaving out key details.

    It’s also possible that they are only looking at a subset of the data that only focuses on people that were questioned the day after the event, but without a pro+ subscription I can’t tell if seperating out that group is even possible (if it even lists out which day a person was questioned) and that’s ignoring the impact on the reliability of those numbers given a largely reduced dataset.

    Morning Consult Pro+ subscribers are able to access the data sets that power Morning Consult Pro’s reports and analysis

    In the end, I’m waiting to see what the polls look like in battleground states to see how this event has really affected the situation.

    Socsa ,

    Half of the poll period was in the middle of the news cycle. You’d expect to see at least some movement.

    TokenBoomer ,

    We may never get an accurate poll post-assassination because the RNC quickly followed.

    card797 ,

    See 2020. The same result is quite likely. I don’t care what any new organization or poll says. Don’t care.

    TokenBoomer ,

    In 2020 the incumbent lost, uh-oh /s

    RagingSnarkasm ,

    The only thing missing from that picture is him holding the chain attached to Slave Leia.

    FiniteBanjo ,

    He does poll much higher than Harris in some polls that show up on Fivethirtyeight but it hardly makes much sense to include those polls, imo.

    Gobbel2000 ,
    @Gobbel2000@programming.dev avatar

    Can we just take a step back and admire how completely bizarre this title sounds out of context?

    Bernie_Sandals ,
    @Bernie_Sandals@lemmy.world avatar

    Ikr, If someone woke up from a coma today, this headline without context looks like the Trump Fifth Avenue quote actually happened.

    I swear they could be better with these headlines.

    EmpathicVagrant ,

    Booster for trump shot doesn’t come to fruition.

    tmpod ,
    @tmpod@lemmy.pt avatar

    Isn’t 2k voters a comically small sample to draw any results from? I hope it is true, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

    RunawayFixer ,

    Not really, 2k is enough to have a result with a pretty low error %. Some example numbers: surveymonkey.com/…/how-many-people-do-i-need-to-t…

    That is for “1 population” though, I don’t know if the divided USA public opinion still counts as 1 population. I’m not a polling scientist, I just know that you don’t need a massive amount of data points to draw statistically sound conclusions. Try tossing a coin and see how fast it stabilizes towards 50/50, that one really surprised me the first time I did it.

    tmpod ,
    @tmpod@lemmy.pt avatar

    Not really, 2k is enough to have a result with a pretty low error %.

    You’re totally right, my statistics is very rusty, good lord. For the ~240M eligible voters in the US, you can get roughly 2% margin of error, for the usual 95% confidence level.

    My comment was a bit daft, in retrospective. Surely the polling people know what they’re doing, better than I do for sure x)
    I guess it goes to show how non intuitive some statistical methods can be at first?

    nexguy ,
    @nexguy@lemmy.world avatar

    I think 2k is a bit larger than the average polls I’ve seen which are 400 to 1500 usually.

    CaptainSpaceman ,

    1000 is a solid sample size to start with, doubling that is better. But ultimately polls are flawed in the designers bias. How they frame questions matters and creates biases.

    zbyte64 ,

    Still, if the poll is asking the same question over time, then you can track trends over time.

    jj4211 ,

    I’d say it’s unlikely to change minds, but it could cause people to be even more forceful in their support and more likely to vote.

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