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son_named_bort , (edited )

You miss 100% of the shots you take.

Mr_Dr_Oink ,

Isn’t it "you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.

?

Edit. I think i completely missed your joke. It’s about the extremely low chance that you will win the lottery and you are using wayne Gretzkys famous quote to make the joke.

Sorry, im an idiot and i ruin jokes by explaining them so someone can validate me and say “yes, well done, you got the joke…”

petrol_sniff_king ,

Well done! You got the joke. :)

son_named_bort ,

That’s the joke I was going for.

stebo02 ,
@stebo02@sopuli.xyz avatar

and 99.9999% of the shots you do take

Honytawk ,

That number is too low. You need about 5 more 9’s at the end for it to compare to lottery winnings.

ElBarto ,
@ElBarto@sh.itjust.works avatar

I just ask them how much they spend on lotto every week, then times that by 52 and then ask roughly what they’ve won over the year, take that from the first number and show them how much money they’ve wasted. Sometimes it goes well, most times it doesn’t, but they don’t bother me about the lotto anymore.

GrammatonCleric ,
@GrammatonCleric@lemmy.world avatar

I can never get STDs if I stay a virgin forever.

Checkmate, antibiotics manufacturers.

SeeMinusMinus ,
@SeeMinusMinus@lemmy.world avatar

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/fa0ee21c-b962-4b87-8dee-929625911672.jpegTrollface

Chakravanti ,

Sucker!

Muninn ,

The way I see it, is that by never trying, I have statistically about the same chances of winning as someone playing.

pyrflie ,

Congrats you paid the tax.

agamemnonymous ,
@agamemnonymous@sh.itjust.works avatar

Except their chances are infinitely higher than yours. It’s miniscule, but miniscule and finite is infinitely bigger than zero. Math gets funky around the edge cases

gimsy ,

Not really, the chances to find a winning ticket of a lottery walking on the street is almost comparable

agamemnonymous ,
@agamemnonymous@sh.itjust.works avatar

The chances of finding a winning ticket on the street are many orders of magnitude lower. How often do you find unredeemed lottery tickets walking on the street? I never have, the most I’ve seen are losing scratch-offs.

Honytawk ,

The difference is still comparable.

That is how low you stand a chance of winning.

Want to see it in numbers? Last year people in the US spend 105 billion on lottery tickets. Meaning, you have 1 chance in 403 846 153 to win. If you played every week, it would take you 7 766 272 year to win. And even that isn’t certain.

In math: 1 = 0,9999999999

agamemnonymous ,
@agamemnonymous@sh.itjust.works avatar

Couple things:

First, you fundamentally misunderstand how lottery winners are chosen. The odds are invariant with the number of players, the odds of winning are the same whether there’s no other players, or a billion. A sequence of numbers are chosen at random from a set range, and anyone whose ticket matches that sequence wins. You’re probably thinking of a raffle, where people purchase tickets which are shuffled together, and one is selected at random. The odds of winning a raffle do decrease with more players.

Second, the probability of two things happening is equal to the product of their individual probabilities, P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B). For example, let’s say I have 10 dice in a bag, and only one is red; the odds of pulling out the red die and rolling a 6 is equal to 1/10 × 1/6, for a total of 1/60. So the probability of finding a winning lottery ticket on the ground is exactly equal to the probability of finding an unredeemed ticket on the ground, P(A), multiplied by the probability of any individual ticket being a winner, P(B). If P(A) = 1/10, then you’re ten times more likely to win by buying a ticket yourself. If P(A) is 1/1,000, then you’re 1,000 times more likely. Considering that I’ve never found an unredeemed lottery ticket on the ground, P(A) is likely extremely small, so the odds are extremely higher if your purchase a ticket yourself.

Third, 1 does not equal 0.9999999999. 1 does equal 0.999…, which is very different. It only works with a literal infinite number of decimal places. Ten 9s is not sufficient, ten trillion 9s is not sufficient, no finite number of decimal places is sufficient to uphold that property.

Kusimulkku ,

I don’t think you can claim the win if you can’t show you’ve bought the ticket

runeko ,
@runeko@programming.dev avatar

You are very slightly less likely to win the lotto if you don’t buy a ticket.

ndsvw ,
@ndsvw@feddit.de avatar

deleted_by_author

    •
    TimewornTraveler ,

    you’re saying there’s NO chance of winning the lottery, no matter how infinitesimally small, if you don’t buy a ticket?

    do you have a source for this claim? or are you just seeking an upgrade from Bureaucrat Grade 35 to Grade 34? jk lol

    petrol_sniff_king ,

    What is the mathematical definition of “slight”?

    runeko ,
    @runeko@programming.dev avatar

    Not Playing: P(ticket won) * P(found a ticket on the ground)

    Playing: P(ticket won) * P(didn’t drop or otherwise lose ticket)

    Kyle_The_G ,

    My lottery is open 9:30-4 mon-fri and its called the NYSE.

    pyrflie ,

    At current money rates NYSE loses 0.5% per year.

    Smart Money is in Short Term Corp Bonds, Long term is HUGE RISK.

    CMSE was underwater 2 years ago and is just getting worse.

    Kyle_The_G ,

    Ya I went straight cash a while ago, I use to have some holdings but I got really bearish a while back (still am) so I just jump in with options here or there, nice quick in/out when yhings are moving, not too greedy. I went back to school a while back so I really don’t have time to watch the market so I’m a little out of practice, more of a hobby until I get back into the workforce and have some time and play money. Until then I have to be really conservative.

    pyrflie ,

    Congrats you are losing 4% per year.

    FED has tipped the market. Cash loses yoy during inflation.

    NewPerspective ,

    “You can’t win the lotto and you are playing.”

    AlwaysNowNeverNotMe ,
    @AlwaysNowNeverNotMe@kbin.social avatar

    The lotto is an additional tax for people who don't understand math

    Kalkaline ,
    @Kalkaline@leminal.space avatar

    Sucker tax

    themeatbridge ,

    A lot of people understand how unfair the math is, and still buy the tickets because “you never know.”

    Source: I buy tickets sometimes because you never know…

    verysoft ,

    If you can afford it, then it's no harm really. I've made a profit from the lottery myself, albeit a minor one. Depending on the lottery, it's not the worst thing you can give pocket change away to for a bit of fun. So I never understood this "you'll never win" mentality/gatekeeping hobbies, people know the chances, but it's fun either way.

    pyrflie ,

    If you win you still lose cause most places publish your name. This really is a field where wining is losing.

    The money just make you an easily identified target or mark for the audience.

    shalafi ,

    One the most memorable reddit posts of all time:

    old.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/…/chb38xf/

    verysoft ,

    Entirely dependent on the lottery, the only one I have heard of this being a thing is the main US one. You can remain completely anonymous in the major European lotteries for example.

    pyrflie ,

    The US and Canada Lotteries publish the winners because it is a public record that they did in fact pay out. The European commisions that don’t publish have to face yearly accusation that they don’t actually pay out and then have to publish tax forms that do infact reveal the identity of winners.

    themeatbridge ,

    I think the big problem is that people who are addicted to gambling are being suckered several times a week. It’s not really gambling, it’s buying a daydream. If a casino gave you similar odds in one of their slots, it would likely be illegal based on the odds and the payout. So people who think of it like gambling are getting the worst of it. The expected value never approaches anything close to fair, even at rhe highest jackpots.

    brbposting ,

    people know the chances

    This article agrees. Huge caveat:

    …Osmond…obtained a database from the Connecticut Lottery containing 21 years’ worth of winners. What did he find?

    They are largely poor, largely minorities, and often addicts.

    The lottery preys on these people.

    Vox, “4 ways the lottery preys on the poor”, 2016

    Phen ,

    I would sometimes buy one just to have something to wait for. It’s cheaper than buying trash online.

    Swedneck ,
    @Swedneck@discuss.tchncs.de avatar

    whip up some pizza dough and spend the week waiting for it to proof, then at the end you get a delicious pizza to look forward to

    Honytawk ,

    No, we do know. You will not win once.

    Somebody might win a huge amount, but that one will not be you. I can guarantee that.

    You will put in more money than you will get out. Somebody needs to pay their shareholders.

    piecat ,

    Oh no, I spent $3 to dream of being rich. Anyways

    Maalus ,

    How can you guarantee that? The chance is close to zero, but not zero - ergo you cannot be 100% sure that they won’t win.

    And that’s the point they are trying to make - you don’t need to be 100% logical to enjoy life. Sure, they probably won’t win. But thinking they might, the anticipation of scratching the tickets, etc, is worth it to them.

    Jonny ,
    @Jonny@kbin.social avatar

    I always feel it's more of a tax on hope. I know a few folks who play and the understand the odds very well... but what if!

    'What if' can be very appealing for only £2, even if it is incredibly, incredibly, (repeat incredibly a thousand more times) unlikely.

    Kusimulkku ,

    What a silly belief. Everyone knows the odds are ridiculous. It’s just that people are still hoping they’d win

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