Inverted yield curve has predicted every previous recession and it’s as inverted as it was before the 1980s recession. Now people are simply saying it’s no longer reliable. 🥴
My opinion is that the COVID pandemic wasn’t the recession it should have been. We should have entered a recession alongside the pandemic, but instead the government printed a fuck ton of money and pumped it straight into the economy. This led to increased inflation and the situation we’re in now. That’s why the grey line in 2020 is so thin, and why the yield curve is so deeply inverted now. They basically postponed it by about 4 years.
The total public debt helps explain why there wasn’t a recession:
Interesting. How soon after an inversion does a recession need to happen for it to be considered “predicted”? It looks like the longest in your chart is the recession ~2 yrs after the 1978 inversion. The most recent inversion was July 2022. If we’re not in recession by this summer, will that still be “predicted”? 2025? 2026?
It’s never been the same amount of time since the beginning of the inversion, but there has always been a recession after the inversion goes back to normal. There are a lot of events that are building up that will bring the recession, it will happen over time. My guess is within the next 6-12 months.
I don’t think that really answers my question. Saying “there is always a recession after an inversion” is incredibly vague. The only scenario that wouldn’t happen is if we somehow fixed the economy perfectly & never had a recession every again ever. But if a recession happens 100 years after an inversion, it’s farfetched to say the inversion predicted it. Where’s the line?
Is there a source without links to the regime in the UK? The UK is considered a ‘systemic rival’ to the EU by the EU, so any claims by UK state-affiliated media should be viewed through a lens of foreign propaganda.
Hungary’s interior ministry claimed the deal would improve safety in tourist hotspots or during events that attract large numbers of spectators
Okay so reading between the lines, it’s about tourist services and has no impact on 99.9% of the country?
But the plan has drawn criticism from those concerned the agreement will be abused by communist China,
Who are these people?
which has a lengthy record of human rights abuses.
Which abuses?
The patrols could be the first step to establishing secret police stations or used to intimidate the overseas Chinese community, they warned.
Based on what? Who warned? Who are they?
Daniel Freund: Orban is showing his true colours: deep red. There’s nothing to learn from a communist dictatorship except for tyranny and totalitarian control of citizens.
Viktor Orban is a communist actually, says their expert. For more insight into the overwhelming intellect of their expert, I present to you his pinned tweet. nitter.poast.org/…/1766097991180382216#m
Note this expert is not the ‘they’ from earlier.
There are also deep-seated EU anxieties about Beijing’s use of surveillance and its human rights record with the Uighurs.
From who? Your readers certainly, but anyone who follows world affairs knows that their ‘human rights record with the Uighurs’ is completely clean. Since they can’t publish that conspiracy theory any more, now they just hope you infer it.
By Western standards, China’s record on human rights with respect to Uyghurs is not clean. However, it’s no more dirty than China’s record on human rights with respect to Han.
Turns out, Western standards look down on things like collectivism and the common good in favour of individual rights and privileges.
Western criticism of the one child policy, for example, is the exact same thing as Western criticism of government-imposed family planning on Uyghurs: by Western standards, the government should only impose family planning policy through economic levels, never legally enforceable ones.
And this is why we’re treated like criminals every time we leave grocery stores here. Everywhere has heavily kitted up security (though I don’t believe armed) that stops you every time you try to leave.
The off-duty US pilot who allegedly tried to shut down the engines of a plane in mid-air had taken magic mushrooms and thought he was having a nervous breakdown, court documents state.
Pilots wrestled Joseph Emerson out of the cockpit on Sunday after he is said to have lunged for controls that would have starved the engines of fuel and turned the plane into a glider.
Emerson, who told police he had not slept in 40 hours, also tried to open an emergency exit in the rear of the aircraft and had to be restrained by the cabin crew during an emergency landing.
“I pulled both emergency shutoff handles because I thought I was dreaming and I just want to wake up,” Emerson told police, according to a criminal complaint.
Emerson and the investigating officer “talked about the use of psychedelic mushrooms and Emerson said it was his first time taking mushrooms”.
The 44-year-old was arrested on Sunday evening after the Alaska Airlines flight made an emergency landing in Portland, Oregon. He is charged with 83 counts of attempted murder.
Emerson had boarded the flight - which was operated by Horizon Air - between Everett, Washington, and San Francisco, sitting in the jump seat of the cockpit, in line with airline policy for non-working staff.
A short way into the journey, after chatting with the pilots, “Emerson attempted to grab and pull two red fire handles that would have activated the plane’s emergency fire suppression system and cut off fuel to its engines”, the Department of Justice said.
“After a brief physical struggle with the pilots, Emerson exited the cockpit.”
Emerson, pictured on a previous flight, has been ‘removed from service indefinitely’ On Monday, Alaska Airlines said pilots had reacted quickly to reverse the handles and the aircraft had landed safely.
“During the flight’s descent, Emerson tried to grab the handle of an emergency exit. A flight attendant stopped him by placing her hands on top of his,” the Department of Justice said.
“Flight attendants placed Emerson in wrist restraints and seated him in the rear of the aircraft.”
The US Attorney’s Office for the District of Oregon said Emerson faces a federal charge of interfering with flight crew members and attendants.
He has also been charged in Oregon with 83 counts of attempted murder, 83 counts of reckless endangerment and one count of endangering an aircraft.
US media reported he pleaded not guilty to these charges during a brief court appearance in Portland on Tuesday.
Live ATC, a website that archives conversations between pilots and air traffic controllers, published an audio recording of the moments after the incident.
“We’ve got the guy that tried to shut the engines down out of the cockpit,” the pilot said. “And he doesn’t sound like he’s causing any issue in the back right now.
“I think he’s subdued. Other than that, yeah, we want law enforcement as soon as we get on the ground and parked,” the pilot said.
On Tuesday, Alaska Airlines said Emerson had been “removed from service indefinitely and relieved from all duties”.
As someone who’s been severely sleep deprived before, I hope he gets help and not prison. I don’t know what led to him being awake for 40hrs, but something makes me think it wasn’t the shrooms that kept him awake because, afaik, they should have worn off long before he boarded the flight.
Are you referring to his handling of Afghanistan or something else?
Joe Biden announced he was “going to bed” before being cut off mid-sentence by an aide in a press conference delivered at the end of his trip to Asia.
Yup. He’s like 80 and putting him through jetlag isn’t ideal. I’d go back to bed too. Clearly to me though he was having difficulty thinking. Again he’s 80 and being put through jetlag. It’s insane to do this to any 80-year-old. He’s not the best president but it beats the shit out of any Republican Trumpers we would have got instead. At least he’s not actively trying to harm the nation.
It’s not defeatist at all. It’s how it is. Voting for a third party in the US is throwing your vote away. The only hope is that people campaign hard for a third party and everyone abandons one party for another. That’s the only hope and that’s still a 2 party system. It’s just a new party taking the place of the old one. Even then it’s an impossible task that won’t happen in the next 10 years.
Oh no I meant it more in the Rick and Morty shooting the insect soldiers in the first episode, “Rick you said they weren’t alive” “They’re bureaucrats Morty, I don’t respect them.” You’re just repeating lame talking points. But it’s OK you deserve the brain dead candidate you support.
telegraph.co.uk
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