While there might be a sudden (and long overdue) influx of material heading Ukraine’s way my understanding is that they’ve been attritioned out of a lot of their fighting capability due to the long (fuck you GOP) drought of munitions. Russia has a lot more manpower to throw at the war and has been actively recruiting dumb foreigners (or kidnapping foreigners) along with using prison labor to supplement their fighting force.
Russia has about 3.5x the manpower, and IIUC, Ukraine might start using convicts. Maybe they might use some of that aid to increase pay and maybe get their own foreigners.
This history of Russia shows a willingness to throw bodies into the meatgrinder to achieve military objectives. While there are trained and professional forces fighting on the Russian side of this conflict, the lines have also been populated with conscripts, political dissidents, ethnic minorities, prisoners, and any other “human resources” that Putin doesn’t mind sacrificing. I doubt he is worried about troop strength.
He’s absolutely worried about troop strength. Besides the fact that Russia is already getting screwed by a demographic crunch regardless of this war, Putin’s last mobilization was deeply unpopular.
this may be a signal that Russia is reaching the limit of its ability to sustain the war and he’s trying to grab a hold of what little land he tenuously holds right now. Putin wants to wrap it up before they start to lose ground again.
I wouldn’t be so sure. It’s likely that Russia sees a temporary ceasefire as a way to more efficiently regroup its army and continue the invasion. It would also give Ukraine a little bit of time to do the same, but given the political red tape in the west, it’s unlikely they would be able to be as efficient or effective
Agreed, time is on the Russian side. A ceasefire, esp until Trump gets reelected, or doesn’t, and causes a civil war, gives him space to regroup and rearm with Indian and Chinese gear.
Either way the US will be chaotic after the election and funding a foreign war may not be a thing, esp. if there is a domestic insurgency. And Europe still doesn’t have what it takes, and probably won’t, to meet any needs.
If they took it, I bet there would be a ceasefire… for like 6 months or a year. Just enough time for Russia to manufacture and restock more weapons and maybe actually train their troops.
For sure, the direct tactical gains would be massive.
Also, in the EU we have elections coming up. The right wing parties and Euro sceptics are already on a plus… so giving them another talking point is potentially even more valuable… if this stifles support for Ukraine.
Putin also doesn’t recognize Zelensky as the leader now that Ukraine hasn’t had the possibility of doing their next election, so it’s a mystery who is Russia’s puppet they’re ready to negotiate with.
There are also upcoming negotiations in Switzerland, which Russia might want to sidetrack with a rearming “truce”
UCLA Chancellor Gene Block, testifying Thursday before a U.S. congressional hearing into the protests, said his school should have been prepared to immediately remove the protest encampment “if and when the safety of our community was put at risk.”
The violence took place two days after a pro-Israel group, the Israeli American Council, held a rally next to the UCLA encampment, with the council’s leader, Elan Carr, urging his supporters to “take back our campuses" from pro-Palestinian protesters. Scuffles broke out between the two sides.
So zionists showed up, said people should attack peaceful protesters, then attacked the peaceful protestors, and days later came back with weapons for a coordinated early morning attack…
So the cops then raid the peaceful protesters?
And the schools take away was “we should have had the cops attack earlier”
Fucking insane.
This is what happens when foreign countries buy both parties and take over our education system. It’s no coincidence all these schools are siding with the genociders.
The problem with peaceful protests is that they attract violent people who attack them. So, TPTB ban the peaceful protestors.
What happens if a select few of the peaceful protestors happened to be armed in places where doing so publicly is legal? The peaceful protestors are protected from violence by a select few exercising their second amendment right to bear arms. Pretty hard to ban those peaceful protestors.
“Edan went to bully the Palestinian students in the tents at UCLA and played the song that they played to the Nukhba terrorists in prison!” his mother proudly wrote on Facebook in a since-deleted post, accompanied by a screenshot of news footage from a local station. In the post, she identified her son by circling his figure in the screenshot of the news feed, CNN reported.
On was identified by CNN last week as one of the attackers. He is not a student but a local high school senior, his mother told CNN, though she later denied he was at the protest at all.
Even the premise of a ceasefire is so insulting. It would be agreeing that the invasion-pushed borders are valid enough to accept for a day, and by that, Ukraine would take the first step to agreeing they could accept them for a hundred days, a thousand… Every additional day strengthening the appearance of legitimacy. Russia needs to be broken to understand, there’s no negotiation that would work.
Like all of Putin’s games, if you agree to play, you’ve already lost.
reuters.com
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