Israel rarely misses an opportunity to try to provoke Lebanon into a war, and they ramped up their efforts on the heels of the Gaza invasion, and have been notably aggressive about it in the last month or two. And Lebanon has consistently refused to rise to the bait.
And now, literally from out of nowhere, Hezbollah launches a rocket at a children’s sports field for no discernible reason?
Bullshit. I have zero doubt that Israelis launched that attack, in a cynical and murderous attempt to trigger the war they so transparently have been trying to start. They’re clearly - obviously - the only ones who could possibly benefit from it, they’ve been trying to provoke a war with Lebanon for months now to no avail and they self-evidently have no morals or principles and will kill anyone to get what they want. Everything points to the same conclusion - Israel did it.
I’m not saying youre necessarily wrong, but it’s not like hezbollahs militants have decent trigger discipline. Peak tensions combined with an armed fanatic and an easy target has a tendency to end in violence.
…it’s not like hezbollahs militants have decent trigger discipline
Except that they do, demonstrably and consistently.
Israel isn’t going to let an opportunity to try to gain international sympathy go unremarked, yet in spite of the fact that Hezbollah has launched thousands of attacks on Israeli targets at the border in recent months, even resulting in 33 recorded civilian casualties, this is the first one that Israel has been able to at all successfully milk for sympathy. That indicates significant discipline and restraint - to not only confine themselves to military targets, but to do so so consistently that the Israeli propaganda machine hasn’t even been able to successfully pretend otherwise, until now.
Almaydeen wrote a great article pointing out that the impact crater is far too small for a 50kg Falaq1 rocket warhead which israel claims caused the explosio
So the blast crater looks nothing like you’d expect. And Falaq1 rockets do not blast into flames but rather have a big shockwave warhead, as they burn all their fuel on launch, we would not expect the fireball.
Lastly they are not GPS guided but just “dumb” rockets. Launched at an angle and calculated where they will land. So GPS jamming could not affect them. But Hezbollah never targets the Druze areas so this too does not check out.
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