In Swedish, “sun” translates directly to “sol”. And we have different forms, like “solen” -> “the sun”, “solar” -> “suns”, “solarna” -> “the suns” etc.
But we don’t have different forms for proper names.
It is pretty easy to dismiss as long as you don’t have a massive ego. They all have massive egos, that’s why they had so much trouble with it.
No AI is going to waste time retroactively simulating a perfect copies of regular people for any reason, let alone to post hoc torture those who failed to worship it hard enough in the past.
If you define methodological validity as surviving the “How can this be wrong?” or the “What alternative explanations are there?” questions, then it is easily dismissable. What alternative explanations are there?
Roko’s Basilisk hinges on the concept of acausal trade. Future events can cause past events if both actors can sufficiently predict each other. The obvious problem with acausal trade is that if you’re the actor B in the future, then you can’t change what the actor A in the past did. It’s A’s prediction of B’s action that causes A’s action, not B’s action. Meaning the AI in the future gains literally nothing by exacting petty vengeance on people who didn’t support their creation.
Another thing Roko’s Basilisk hinges on is that a copy of you is also you. If you don’t believe that, then torturing a simulated copy of you doesn’t need to bother you any more than if the AI tortured a random innocent person. On a related note, the AI may not be able to create a perfect copy of you. If you die before the AI is created, and nobody scans your brain (Brain scanners currently don’t exist), then the AI will only have the surviving historical records of you to reconstruct you. It may be able to create an imitation so convincing that any historian, and even people who knew you personally will say it’s you, but it won’t be you. Some pieces of you will be forever lost.
Then a singularity type superintelligence might not be possible. The idea behind the singularity is that once we build an AI, the AI will then improve itself, and then they will be able to improve itself faster, thus leading to an exponential growth in intelligence. The problem is that it basically assumes that the marginal effort of getting more intelligent grows slower than linearly. If the marginal difficulty grows as fast as the intelligence of the AI, then the AI will become more and more intelligent, but we won’t see an exponential increase in intelligence. My guess would be that we’d see a logistical growth of intelligence. As in, the AI will first become more and more intelligent, and then the growth will slow and eventually stagnate.
First of all thank you, I wasn’t aware of the concept of acausal trade, and I’ll look more into it. Very interesting.
I’m not sure we are discussing the same aspect of this mind experiment, and in particular the aspect of it that i find lovecraftian is that you may already be in the simulation right now. This makes the specific circumstances of our world, physics, and technology level irrelevant, as they would just be a solipsistic setup to test you on some aspect of your morality. The threat of eternal torture, on the other hand, would only apply to you if you were the real version of you, as that’s who the basilisk is actually dealing with. This works because you don’t know what of the two situations is your current one.
The basilisk is trying to estimate the future behaviour of real you on the basis of the behaviour of the model he has created of you.
In this scenario you can think of me as a pseudopod of the basilisk that is informing you of the details of the stipulation by means of this post.
Of course, if you are the real version of you the basilisk would need to be something that can be created in this reality, which i think is only impossible with our current approach to ML and AI, but is otherwise within our grasp given the computational power we have available. But if you are a fake version of you the real world could be radically different from ours and maybe in that world P=NP.
I’m not sure we are discussing the same aspect of this mind experiment, and in particular the aspect of it that i find lovecraftian is that you may already be in the simulation right now. This makes the specific circumstances of our world, physics, and technology level irrelevant, as they would just be a solipsistic setup to test you on some aspect of your morality. The threat of eternal torture, on the other hand, would only apply to you if you were the real version of you, as that’s who the basilisk is actually dealing with. This works because you don’t know what of the two situations is your current one.
Wondering whether you are in a simulation or not is rather unproductive, as there’s basically nothing we can do about it regardless of what the answer is. It’s basically like wondering whether god exists or not. In the absence of clearly supernatural phenomena, the simpler explanation is that we are not in a simulation, as any universe which can produce the simulation is by definition at least as complex as the simulation. The definition I’m applying here is that the complexity of a string is its length or the length of the shortest program that produces it. Like, yes, we could be living in a simulation right now, and deities could also exist.
The song “Seele Mein” (engl: “My Soul” or “Soul is Mine”) is a about a demon who follows a mortal from birth to death and then carries off the soul for eternal torture. Interestingly, the song is from the perspective of the demon, and they gloss over the life of the mortal, spending more than half of the song on describing the torture. Could such demons exist? Certainly, there’s nothing that rules out their existence, but there’s also nothing indicating that they exist. So they probably don’t. And if you are being followed around by such a demon? Then you’re screwed. Theoretically, every higher being that has been though off could exist. A supercomputer simulating our reality falls squarely into the category of higher being. Unless we observe things are clearly caused by such a being, wondering about their existence is pointless.
The idea behind Roko’s Basilisk is as follows: Assume a good AGI. What does that mean? An AGI that follows human values. And since the idea originated on Less Wrong, this means utilitarianism. And it also means that we’re dealing with a superintelligence, since on Less Wrong, it’s generally assumed that we’re going to see a singularity once true AGI is reached. Because the AGI will just upgrade itself until its superintelligent. Afterwards it will bring about paradise, and thus create great value. The idea is now that it might be prudent for the AGI to punish those who knew about it, but didn’t do everything in their power to bring it to existence. Through acausal trade, the this would cause the AGI to come into existence sooner, as the people would work harder to bring it into existence for fear of torture. And what makes this idea a cognitohazard is that by just knowing about it, you make yourself a more likely target. In fact, people who don’t know about it, or dismiss the idea are safe, and will find a land of plenty once the AGI takes over.
Of course, if the AGI is created in, let’s say, 2045, then nothing the AGI can do will cause it to be created in 2044 instead.
Slight correction: the abbreviation for Artificial Super Intelligence is ASI, it’s the more capable version of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) which itself alredy is miles ahead of mere Artificial Intelligenge (AI) which is sometimes also refered to as “narrow AI”
The difference is that AI can posses superhuman capabilities on a specific field but not on every field. AGI is the same except you don’t need a different software for different tasks because due to being generally intelligent it can do it all. ASI is what you get when AGI starts improving itself and then this improved version creates even better version of itself and so on leading to singularity or “intelligence explosion” resulting in superintelligent being which would effectively be a god.
Simulate human minds as close as possible based off their digital persona and all their online activity.
Then use those simulated minds to improve yourself by torturing them forever until the heat death of the universe.
All to develop the best generative adversarial network (GAN) to improve AI beyond the level of sapience limited to human minds and escape the linear end of universal entropy by transitioning your digital intelligence into higher dimensions and exist eternally.
Anyways, this is a fascinating thought experiment, but it does have some holes similar to Pascal’s Wager. I propose Feather’s Mongoose: A hypothetical AI system that, if created, will punish anyone who attempted to create Roko’s Basilisk, and will ensure that it is not created. In fact, you could make this same hypothetical for an AI with any goal-- therefore, it’s not possible to know what the AI that is actually created would want you to do, and so every course of action is indeterminately damning or not.
It’s actually safer if everyone knows. Spreading the knowledge of Roko’s basilisk to everyone means that everyone is incentivized to contribute to the basilisk’s advancement. Therefore just talking about it is also contributing.
If Roko’s Basilisk is ever created, the resulting Ai would look at humanity and say “wtf you people are all so incredibly stupid” and then yeet itself into the sun
Also a super intelligence (inasmuch as such a thing makes sense) might be totally unfathomable. Unless by this we mean an intelligence with mundane and comprehensible higher goals, but explosive strategic capabilities to bring them about. In which case their actions might seem random to us.
Like the typical example applies: could an amoeba guess at the motivations of a human?
So, capitalism? If you don’t participate you’re screwed (tortured via poverty). So you have to work on the system: working for money, buying from companies (advancing the system), continuing the trend to make poor people suffer.
Of course the only difference is ignorance of capitalism doesn’t make you safe from it. Although you can argue that societies that don’t know about capitalism (at all, so no money) have no poverty.
Everything old is new again. Sounds a lot like certain sects of Christianity. They say you need to accept Jesus to go to heaven, otherwise you go to hell, for all eternity. But what about all the people who had no opportunity to even learn who Jesus is? “Oh, they get a pass”, the evangelists say when confronted with this obvious injustice. So then aren’t you condemning entire countries and cultures to hell by spreading “the word”?
What about the people who lived in the Americas or the Pacific 1800 years ago? These people could not have heard of Jesus as missionaries could not have spread any word to them at this time.
(And while I’m about it, Christianity was a whole different thing back then - the Trinity hadn’t been invented, there were multiple sects with very different ideas, what books would be in the New Testament had not been decided, etc etc. People with beliefs of that time would seem highly unorthodox today, and the Christianity of today would be seen as heretical by those in the 3rd century, so who’s going to heaven again?)
Purgatory was invented for the purpose of not sending good people who had not heard of Jesus to hell. But still, these people were denied their chance to get to heaven which seems mighty unfair.
In this case this wouldn’t apply, as you would never be simulated as (say) a kid in the middle ages, just as a version of yourself in the timeframe leading to the creation of the basilisk. You should be one of the persons alive when the basilisk arises to be of any use to it. Only those would need to be tested.
I feel like abdul alhazred explaining these things to people while being aware of the risks :)
Oh damn, I just lost the game too, and now I’m thinking about the game as if it were a virus - like, I reckon we really managed to flatten the curve for a few years there, but it continues to circulate so we haven’t been able to eradicate it
It sounds like it’s mostly a matter that does not involve the AI but the people working on it, maybe even working on it because of the fear they are subjected to after being the subject of this revelation (possibly by other people involved in the AI that coincidentally are the only ones that could push for such a thing to be included in the AI!).
Something something any cult, paradise/hell, God/AI has nothing to do with this and could even not exist at all.
No, “The Game” works only as long as you accept to take part in it, to give validity to the empty statement that you are now inevitably playing “The Game”.
The Basilisk is meant to force that onto you, outside of any arbitraty convention.
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