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China urges largest nuclear states to negotiate a 'no-first-use' treaty

“Nuclear-weapon states should negotiate and conclude a treaty on no-first-use of nuclear weapons against each other or make a political statement in this regard,” Sun said.

China and India are currently the only two nuclear powers to formally maintain a no first use policy. Russia and the United States have the world’s biggest nuclear arsenals.

Linkerbaan ,
@Linkerbaan@lemmy.world avatar

Agreements? Concentions? Those never get broken.

Geneva anyone?

jackpot ,
@jackpot@lemmy.ml avatar

this is largely symbolic, it doesnt change anything

ikidd ,
@ikidd@lemmy.world avatar

I fail to see the point of such a treaty. This planet isn’t surviving a nuclear war long enough to hold anyone accountable over it anyway.

naturalgasbad ,

China and India are the only responsible players on the world stage and it shows.

Cojncidentally, they’re also the two nuclear-armed countries who have been involved in the fewest conflicts, and who’s conflicts have been resolved the most quickly.

hglman ,

Also, they have been fighting each other without guns.

TheAnonymouseJoker ,
@TheAnonymouseJoker@lemmy.ml avatar

I do not think that sounds as bad as you sound.

False ,

This would be a mixed bag because it could open the door on more conventional wars since it would left the threat of MAD.

explodicle ,

I think this applies more to our typical bullying. Against another nuclear state, this treaty is meaningless.

Pons_Aelius ,

The French will never agree.

Their stance has always been, if France is threatened we will use every weapon in our arsenal.

They do not have end the world stocks of nukes like the US or Russia so their attitude is, "Fuck with us and we will end you."

Zellith , (edited )

They do not have end the world stocks

I think you overestimate how many nukes it would take to cause the end of the world. Unless you mean "every piece of land is a radioactive wasteland" end of the world.

Umbrias ,

Radioactive contamination is basically a non concern. Potential massive climatic effects and logistics collapse on the other hand, are.

Zellith , (edited )

Yes, France has enough nukes to cause a nuclear winter several times over. And yes, while radioactivity levels drop rapidly, I meant it in the context of "every single piece of land is nuked and turned into a radioactive wasteland where you wouldnt want to be. Which is a concern because who wants to glow in the dark, right?".

Not sure France has enough nukes to literally hit every square inch of the planet in one go.

tetris11 ,
@tetris11@lemmy.ml avatar

If just India and Pakistan were to go to nuclear war with each other, in their small localized region of the world, 27 million people would die from the carnage. The resulting nuclear Autumn would be enough to change agriculture and starve 250 million people worldwide.

Kurzgesagt Video with timestamp: youtu.be/LrIRuqr_Ozg?si=Nn6YuO0llyB-B6If&t=380

hglman ,

Seems like incredibly low totals.

hglman ,

How so, that is exactly inline with “no first use”.

Xavienth ,

How could “we will use every weapon in our arsenal” possibly be interpreted to mean “no first use”?

Nuclear weapons would not just be used to respond to nuclear threats, if that’s your assumption.

Overzeetop ,

I can tell if China is worried about current Russia or a future US under Trump.

alcoholicorn ,

This is directed to the US, UK, France, and Pakistan.

China and india already have no-first-use policies. Russia inherited one from the USSR, which was dissolved when the west coup’d them and immiserated their people. Russia’s lack of a no-first-use policy is directed at the guys who represent an existential threat to them.

Umbrias ,

“Russia makes constant nuclear threats and doesn’t have a no first use policy, but it’s totally entirely the fault and moral obligation of the us. Totes definitely.”

lol

alcoholicorn ,

Russia makes far fewer nuclear threats than the US who flies stealth bombers right up to the border of North Korea every year and is developing new ICBMs.

But yes Russia’s nuclear policy, including their revocation of no-first-use in the 90s is in response to the US’s actions.

The current situation is especially ironic because Yeltsin, the guy who executed the coup and burned parliament, and removed the No-First-Use policy, and Putin, were both picked by the US.

Umbrias ,

Fewer nuclear threats, lmao.

Names a different country and dismisses explicit nuclear escalations, lmao

Names someone who is not currently leader of Russia, and hasn’t been for 24 years, lmao

Imagines that the Soviet Union didn’t have internal issues except those caused by the us, lmao

This is your brain on tankie. “The nuclear power has no agency to make better choices whatsoever, how could the west do this”

Gosh why do I just not feel bad for poor ol putin here? Real head scratcher.

Lmao.

alcoholicorn ,

I am explaining history and context of Russia’s no-first-use policy and the specific instances that caused them to change it and how the leaders who changed it remain in power. You are dismissing it because I am not starting and ending at “russia bad, does bad things”

The nuclear power isn’t making worse choices, they’re responding to external and internal circumstances.

Umbrias ,

You’re coddling a nuclear power by claiming it’s entirely subject to evil us pressures. They could have implemented a no first use policy any time in the past 20 years just fine, but they haven’t.

I’m dismissing you because your points are wildly silly and blatantly have an agenda to paint Russia as a victim of external forces. Russia is a big boy country, they can implement a simple policy.

Don’t worry, the us could too.

PS, every single country in the world is responding to external and internal pressures.

alcoholicorn ,

They could have implemented a no first use policy any time in the past 20 years just fine, but they haven’t.

Do you think the pressures to maintain a nuclear deterrent against a conventional NATO invasion as more countries joined NATO and NATO leveled half a dozen countries over the last 20 years has increased or decreased?

Note that much of the former USSR, including Russia has not fully recovered in the last 30 years, and NATO has only expanded while denying Russia’s attempts to join.

every single country in the world is responding to external and internal pressures.

You have failed to internalize this, hence why you feel like I am dodging or misleading when I discuss such pressures instead of ending my analysis at <insert enemy of america> bad.

Balthazar ,

I’m all for countries vowing not to use nuclear weapons first, but what is the point of a treaty? If a country does use nuclear weapons first, I think other countries are going to be less concerned about breaking the treaty and more concerned about WW3 and Armageddon. And given that both the US and Russia have shown scant regard for treaties in recent years with major changes to policy, surely the treaty wouldn’t be worth the paper it’s printed on.

catloaf ,

If a country does use nuclear weapons first, the other countries aren’t going to be concerned with the treaty at all because the first country already broke it.

TheAlbatross ,

It takes a lot of people to launch a nuke. While missile operators are trained to act quickly, they are also drilled hard on adherence to policy. A 94% on the test for that policy is a failing grade.

And while I think you’re very right to not trust the US or Russia to adhere to treaties, if said treaty requires that training policies and doctrine reflect the no first strike stance, that would mean a whole lot of people would have to be willing to violate that treaty in order to launch first. Heck, there’s been incidents during the Cold War where a single person’s hesitancy to follow approved launch policy has averted total nuclear war.

I think a treaty and accompanying training and doctrine could create sufficient barriers to make a nuclear first strike far less likely, though, of course, not impossible. But that alone seems like a worthwhile thing to pursue.

TheAnonymouseJoker ,
@TheAnonymouseJoker@lemmy.ml avatar

Last I remember, USA was the only country to have abused nukes against Japan, and later USA and UK sent nuclear ships to nuke India (Russia helped save us from those white devils). USA also supplied banned clusterbombs to NATO proxy Ukraine, which they used against Russia. Russia neither used nukes nor banned weapons.

wildbus8979 ,

That is obviously fake news the libs and MAGAs told me Chyyyyna bad!

TheAlbatross , (edited )

While I don’t think it bears much on how reasonable it is to suggest nuclear powers agree to never strike first, China’s arsenal is uniquely well designed for this kind of strategy. They employ zero static sites, unlike the US and Russia, relying on mobile launchers, subs and bombers. This makes them tactically poised for a retaliatory strike as they don’t have as much of the risk of losing their launch sites in a first strike. The US doctrine of preliminary strike in the event a nuclear attack seems likely is designed to protect their ability to launch at all.

While this kind of treaty would be slightly “advantageous” to China, it’s only because they set up their nuclear arsenal with this far more reasonable and less aggressive strategy in mind from the get go while Russia and the US would have to adapt and convert their arsenal.

BartsBigBugBag ,

Russia also maintains a no first strike policy, unless that changed since I last got stuck in a rabbit hole about nuclear policy. The US is the only major country in the world to maintain a first strike policy with nuclear weapons that I know of.

TheAlbatross ,

Hey, yanno, gonna be real with you, I’m not that familiar with the Russian policy, I assumed they didn’t have a no first strike policy because they were specifically mentioned in this article and it states that only China and India have formal no first strike policies.

Ranvier ,

Kind of? They call it that sometimes but it doesn’t look like a true no first use policy in the same vein as China’s and India’s. Putin also threatens nuclear weapons if NATO troops were to get involved in Ukraine, and openly questions the policy.

www.cnn.com/2022/12/09/europe/…/index.html

I’m not sure any nuclear country would stick to these policies if they truly faced an existential threat, whether that threat was nuclear or not. Russia’s policy has a carve out for any existential threat including conventional weapons. US and Russian policies are pretty close, basically okay to use for any existential threat. Doesn’t hurt to try and negotiate more no first use policies and reinforce the norm though.

Looks like the UK, France, and Pakistan also lack no first use policies.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use

As far as I can tell the article is correct, China and India are the only current nuclear powers with true no first use policies. If that’s incorrect happy to learn more though. Israel not on here cause officially not a nuclear power, but hey we weren’t born yesterday.

BartsBigBugBag ,

Wow great info, thanks so much for doing all that legwork! It makes sense that Putin would put less stock into the policy than did his predecessors, because while the leaked Soviet archives show the USSR was genuinely terrified of nuclear war and mostly built up in response to US expansion of nuclear programs, I feel like Putin sees it more as a tool for intimidation.

Alsephina ,

The post-USSR Russian Federation and Yeltsin, a US tool ironically enough and traitor to the USSR, were the ones who revoked Russia’s no-first-use nuclear policy from 1993 through 1997.

wildbus8979 ,

because they set up their nuclear arsenal with this far more reasonable and less aggressive strategy

Yes.

rottingleaf ,

it’s only because they set up their nuclear arsenal with this far more reasonable and less aggressive strategy

I’m sure US and Russia would do the same if not for starting earlier. There are advantages to catching up too.

thebardingreen ,
@thebardingreen@lemmy.starlightkel.xyz avatar

Folks, very smart people are saying it. I talk to CEOs, generals, every day they tell me. They tell me China is a problem, they say “we’ve got a problem with China. We’ve gotta do something about China.” Everybody’s saying it. That’s what they tell me.

InternetUser2012 ,

Should have thrown in a “I’m a very stable genius” somewhere.

TheAlbatross ,

This is sensible and thus it won’t happen

Crikeste ,

It’s China. Literally nothing they do can be sensible to dumbfuck Americans, it goes against their nationalistic exceptionalism and false propaganda.

hansl ,

It’s China. They’ve lied and deceived about many things and should not be trusted.

TheAnonymouseJoker ,
@TheAnonymouseJoker@lemmy.ml avatar

Like? Or is this another propaganda piece from Vatican or CIA or Brussels or Washington or London or Vienna?

kaffiene ,

Unlike the US

hansl ,

So you agree that China is the hypocrite? Great.

kaffiene ,

Yes. As is the US

hansl ,

But the US is not signing the treaty.

kaffiene ,

So?

hansl ,

Well the article is about China signing a treaty that is unenforceable, which is just likely deception and hypocrisy, and US not signing it, which at least is being honest about the value of that treaty.

kaffiene ,

It’s not hypocritical for China to ask US and Russia to do something that they have already done. You can question the usefulness of such agreements but you can’t, without being a obsequious sycophant, call that hypocritical

RedAggroBest ,

Whataboutism. This is not a contest, it’s a discussion of China as a trustworthy power, which it isn’t.

kaffiene ,

No this is about hypocrical apologists for a hypocritical nation being hypocritical… That’s you and the US, just in case you were wondering

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