WoahWoah , 4 hours ago

Nate Silver notes that while her projected popular vote share has increased over the last ten days, her odds of winning the electoral college has actually gone down slightly, to about 47%. This indicates that a lot of the support she has gained has disproportionately come from states she was already likely to win.

Basically, until we get more data, we can see a small convention bounce in the polling, which typically fades. If her battleground-state numbers reflect that temporary bounce, then she’s even with Trump right now and may potentially fade back to slightly behind in the coming weeks.

The general message is this: Harris has momentum, but that doesn’t change the fact that even with momentum, it’s basically a dead heat. Despite all the celebratory gusto recently, at best she’s one mistake away from losing. At worst, she’s on track to execute a flawless campaign that still ends with her winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college. No one should be breathing easily.

And that’s without factoring in all the voter suppression/purges and other state-level activities of the Republicans to win battleground states, which the Democrats have done basically fuck-all about.

Hoping the Republicans don’t do illegal and/or unethical things to win is a losing strategy. This is a candidate that tried to have his VP hanged for not subverting the entire democratic process.