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Kamala Harris leads Trump in the critical swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, new poll says

  • The Harris campaign is showing new strength in must-win states ahead of the party’s convention.
  • In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters.
  • It’s a reflection of the continued reset of the 2024 race after Biden’s exit.
OneStepAhead ,

Enthusiasm wins elections, because people actually take the time to go VOTE. It’s amazing how few people actually do!

Draegur , (edited )

Also voting is the one thing those bastard pig fascist bootlicking simp conservative chud SCUM don’t want us all to do. You can tell because of how much outrageous effort they dump into making voting more difficult. So: fuck ‘em. They can eat shit.

It’s not even that I like the democrat party at all.

I just want the republicans to lose. Fuck them in hell for eternity.

Bonus; If the GOP gets curbstomped into oblivion where it belongs (with the Federalist party) then the democrats won’t be able to say “well at least we’re not republicans!” anymore.

Imagine uncle sam standing before the behaded corpse of an fat frumpy anthropomorphic elephant, still holding a big bloody machete and smiling at an anthropomorphic donkey.

“Oh, you’re not like him? Why, Yes, You’d better ‘be like him’ as little as possible if you don’t want to end up like he did too!”

The democrats only get away with their fuckery because they always hide behind their favorite token excuse.

They still delusionally think the republicans are their pet controlled opposition.

That pet is not controlled. It is entirely OUT of control, a danger to everyone, both completely feral and RABID.

It’s time for America to take that violent, deranged, savage animal out to Kristi Noem’s gravel pit and end its life right before its democrat "owner"s’ eyes. If we make an example of the republicans, the cowardly shits in the centrist party will either see the light or flee.

Wiz ,

I’d like to subscribe to your newsletter!

Jeredin ,

Don’t care - vote. 🗳️

geogle ,
@geogle@lemmy.world avatar

It is possibly to do both

catloaf ,

In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters.

That’s within the margin of error. That doesn’t really count as a lead.

themeatbridge ,

No, but Trump’s leads were also within the margin of error, so it’s encouraging to see a swing, even if it might just be noise.

SteveFromMySpace ,

Jfc people went ape shit when 1-2% was called within the margin of error a few days ago and now folks complain when it isn’t called out at 4% lmao

Irremarkable ,
@Irremarkable@fedia.io avatar

Most people have a really, really awful understanding of how statistics work.

SteveFromMySpace ,

Preach.

Yes it’s all margin of error. But what I’m seeing personally is Biden was consistently 2-4% down (conservatively) in every state that mattered (which was within the margin of error) and Harris is up 2-4% in every state that matters now (which is also within the margin of error).

I’d rather be the Harris campaign right now than the (now defunct) Biden or (panicking) Trump campaigns. Qualify it all you want folks 🤷‍♂️

No I’m not complacent. I’m excited to vote.

frog_brawler ,

We don’t know the sample size; so we don’t know the margin of error.

Irremarkable ,
@Irremarkable@fedia.io avatar

I mean, click a couple links and it's right there

MI: 619
PA: 693
WI: 661
All of registered voters

Using the amount of total registered voters in each respective state and a 95% CI, we get the following margins of error
MI: ±3.939%
PA: ±3.723%
WI: ±3.811%

Depending on the exact lead (NYT only shows round percents, not specific numbers for each response), all of those are potentially within the top end of that margin of error.

Am I trying to claim that a swing from being down by ~4% to being up by ~4% means nothing and is indicative of nothing? Of course not. But man, most people really do not at all understand how statistics work, and I really wish people would stop talking out of their ass about it.

frog_brawler ,

It was paywalled for me 🤷‍♂️

catloaf ,

Which people? I don’t recall seeing any comments like that on Lemmy, at least.

frog_brawler ,

You don’t know the margin of error unless you know the sample size. I didn’t see the sample size mentioned in the article.

FlyingSquid ,
@FlyingSquid@lemmy.world avatar

She’s only been campaigning for a few weeks. The DNC hasn’t even happened yet. I would call this pretty phenomenal.

Empricorn ,

Maybe not, but it’s encouraging! Harris/Walz are stoking enthusiasm because they want to actually improve people’s lives, not just repeat the same tired culture-war bullshit…

usernamesAreTricky ,

Let’s make sure the ballot box reflects that. Vote, get active, and get involved. Even if you don’t live in a swing state, the down ballot races matter far more than you think

Find how to register to vote for where you are

Find opportunities to volunteer for stuff around you

SeaJ ,

It needs to not be close. Biden was polling way ahead in 2020 but he only won effectively by like 85k votes. Yes, he got 7 million more votes total but in the closest states that could have seen him lose, only about 85k people was the difference between Biden winning the presidency vs Trump winning.

MediaBiasFactChecker Bot ,

Business Insider - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)Information for Business Insider:
> MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: Mostly Factual - United States of America
> Wikipedia about this source

Search topics on Ground.Newshttps://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-leads-trump-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-swing-state-polls-2024-8

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