They’re likely accurate. Anecdotal, but many of my very liberal friends have lost confidence in Biden’s ability to lead the Dems to victory, and many people I know who are ‘swing voters’ are convinced that Biden is senile. That’s not getting into the conservatives I know, who I would not regard as having relevant opinions. Furthermore, a number of sitting congressmembers of his own party have expressed that he should step down - which alone is a ruinous and public expression of a loss of confidence at the highest levels for Biden to win the campaign. It’s a millstone around his campaign’s neck, and even winning them back won’t remove it - the only thing that he can do to remove that weight from the Dem ticket is by stepping down himself.