I don’t think a fake assassination attempt makes much sense at all. He’s not losing to the point that he needs to take a big risk. It’s not close enough to the election for one big stunt to have a good chance of influencing the outcome. And it didn’t even happen at a time and place that would maximize the visibility.
The only thing I can think of that could explain this would be the recent trending of project 2025. But even then, if you need a distraction, the convention is next week, there’s plenty of opportunity to shift the narrative there. And hell, if you want to stage an assassination attempt for your own benefit, that’s the venue to do it at.
On the other hand, faking it requires conspirators who can make it happen, all of whom have to be able to keep it quiet. There will be an investigation that he can’t control. The smaller the conspiracy, the harder it is to pull off, but the larger the conspiracy, the harder it is to cover up. And unlike all his existing criminal cases, there would be no connection to his time as president in any way, so the immunity he just got handed by the supreme court wouldn’t apply. And obviously the shooter has to not accidentally kill Trump while he is shooting at him and killing an innocent bystander. Plus, you have to have a shooter willing to die for the cause, or a patsy who can plausibly take his place, which raises so many more questions and carries a whole new set of risks.
By comparison, someone looking at Trump and saying to himself “Well, if no one else is going to do this, I guess I will” is just a lot more plausible.