Important to note, these forecasts are absolutely subject to change. This is not Nostradamus. It is merely reading the polls and factors as they stand. If Harris obliterates Trump tomorrow then this flips. If everyone donates enough money this week and the DNC gets more ground network for their get out the vote efforts, then this flips
All the model guys are very clear about this.
What’s driving this current Trump run in the models is the lack of a convention bump for Harris. Models automatically tune a candidate’s chances down by about 10 percent after their convention because it’s usually a bit of a honeymoon period. It’s been pointed out though that she may have had her honeymoon period after taking over from Biden. In which case the odds are more like 46/54.
The takeaway from this is that this election is incredibly close right now. Even at 36/64 it is very close. Both candidates need to run near perfect campaigns to have a chance of winning.
let the gov shutdown, lets see those stock prices tumble. You’d never get a better chance to let republicans shoot their own donors in the dick. Lets see spacex stop getting checks, stop paying the supreme court. The rule they’re using to “shut down” the government is likely unconstitutional anyway.
The shutdown would be triggered by Congress not passing a funding bill, something that’s happened 3 times since 2013, and the supreme would continue to get paid if this happens.
It seems like the supreme court staff would all be furloughed though. Could probably cut power to the buildings too. With a little creativity they could certainly create a situation where the supreme court stops getting paid and there is no way to convene the court to deal with it.
Repubs despise this idea for some reason, but isn’t this a compromise that gets them exactly what they want? They couldn’t possibly be saying one thing but actually wanting a different outcome, right?
they’ve always fought a federal ID as far as I can remember. Its similar to how most talk about the border then like staff their mansions with undocumented immigrants. Or how they talk about the deficit and inflation then skyrocket both. They know the media is owned by their friends and will shield them from any sort of accountability.
If you haven’t already, follow Jeff Jackson while he’s still in his position. He tells it how it is and gives inside info on why they make these futile plays
At some point Democrat presidents are going to have to either fix this or admit that they are basically incompetent. There are workarounds, there’s every reason to pursue them, and it’s really sad watching people who claim to be professionals act surprised when they’re confronted with this situation again.
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