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flug , (edited )

The way this (completely predictable and preventable) man-made disaster is being covered is both ridiculous and infuriating.

Every news outlet is dutifully reporting that a “cloudburst” over Lhonak Lake led to a “flash flood” which then (somehow?!) took out a 25,000 crore ($3 billion) dam in a brief 10 minutes.

So here is a “cloudburst” and a “flash flood”: youtu.be/FJOpZF_4b-w?si=fqZ31FGJVy5xx5JT&t=46…

What happened in Sikkim is emphatically NOT a simple little cloudburst nor a simple flash flood.

What is really was: A huge glacial-moraine dammed lake that first appeared in 1962 and that has massively grown in size the past few years - all due to global warming - finally breached the moraine. About 2/3 of the water of the lake poured through the breach in a short while.

Pro tip: That is not a “flash flood”. That is a glacial lake outburst flood - which, given the size of the lake, is several orders of magnitude larger than a simple flash flood caused by a thunderstorm.

This massive bolus of water then struck the massive, $3 billion Teesta 3 dam at Chungthang, 60 meters high and just recently completed, washing it away in 10 minutes flat and causing an even LARGER flood due to the dam breech and loss of the entire, massive reservoir. This released an additional 5.08 million cubic meters of water to wreak havoc downstream.

So a few points:

  • None of this is a “cloudburst” or a "flash flood"
  • Rather it is a completely foreseeable and preventable man-made disaster
  • The danger of the bursting of the Lhonak Lake moraine has been well known for quite some time
  • That danger must have been well known to designers of the Teesta 3 dam, yet they clearly made the decision to do nothing about it
  • The creation and growth of Lhonak Lake starting in the 1960s is due to increased glacial melting clearly attributable to global warming
  • The recent growth of the lake is, likewise, clearly attributable to increased global warming
  • The bursting of the glacial moraine at the end of the hottest summer in recorded history can scarcely be coincidental. The lake was visibly growing in size just in the very recent past.
  • Again, this was a well known danger in the region and the decision to do nothing to ameliorate the danger - while actually moving ahead with projects downstream that only multiply the risk - can only be attributed to some combination of negligence and incompetence.
  • Heavy rains in the region only added to the problem - but from heavy rain alone it is very hard to imagine the bursting of the Teesta 3 dam, which led to the major flooding, damage, and death.

In short: Don’t blame the cloudburst. This was an entirely human created, human caused, disaster that could have been averted, or at least greatly minimized, with by relatively simple means and a little bit of foresight.

Not all news outlets are blaming the disaster on a “cloudburst”:

So why is every mainstream news outlet in India erroneously referring to the disaster as a “flash flood” caused by a “cloudburst”? It took me literally 2 minutes of googling to find out the actual cause.

beigeoat ,
@beigeoat@110010.win avatar

I get hindi and english newspapers at my home and the hindi one says cloudburst and the English one gives three possible theories;

  1. Heavy rain
  2. Landslide/Avalanche
  3. Earthquake that occurred on Tuesday
Ilovethebomb ,

Immediately, our team went to the dam to open the gates. Before they could open, the flash flood hit them, and they ran away to save their lives

I’m surprised they had to send a team to open the gates, I’d have thought this could be done remotely.

flug ,

And, why did they not have some kind of early warning system set up to give them more notice of the breaching of the Lhokan Lake moraine? The moraine was known to be in imminent danger of breaching.

www.sciencedirect.com/…/S0169555X21001914

zephyreks ,

On your left, you have Indian infrastructure failing. On your right, you have American infrastructure crumbling. To the center, you have Chinese infrastructure sinking.

Turns out, infrastructure is pretty hard eh?

LibertyLizard ,

Kind of surprising it failed so soon after construction. Was this an extreme flood event or was it constructed improperly?

I hate to sound like a broken record but the Indian government’s pro-coal development path is partly to blame for the rise in extreme weather faced by India. As one of the more vulnerable populous nations you would think they would have more awareness but unfortunately the current government seems to only care about the short term and not the long term well being of the Indian people.

flug ,

You can see my extended explanation above, but in short it was due to a glacial moraine outburst flood upstream, releasing two-thirds of the water of Lhonak Lake in one go. The lake was known to be at high risk of bursting the moraine.

The lake itself was caused by glacial melt due to global warming, first appearing in the 1960s. The bursting of the lake this summer will almost certainly be traced to the record high temperatures recorded this summer, which led to an increase in size of the lake and overtopping the moraine that held it in place.

This article has satellite images showing the recent growth of the lake and then the recent release of most of its waters:

ndtv.com/…/sikkim-flash-floods-lhonak-lake-isros-…

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