Ukraine's Kursk Gambit: The End of Putin, or Zelensky?

Rentlar , 1 hour ago (edited 1 hour ago)

The diversion is more significant than the article makes it out to be.

On face value, Kursk region isn’t that important to Moscow and they’ve got the strategic points like the nuclear plant on lock. However it’s hard to deny the value of the morale boost that Ukraine desperately needed, even as it has risks as with anything.

The choice for Ukraine is to keep on the defensive, slowly losing its ground, or the same thing happens but Putin is humiliated on the world stage by Ukraine, taking Russian military high command by surprise whether it forces their hand or not.

The Kursk incursion does not change losses caused by poor military coordination present from Ukrainian and Russian command structures.

yogthos OP , 1 hour ago (edited 48 minutes ago)

There is zero chance of this incursion making it anywhere close to the nuclear plant. In fact, at this point even pro Ukrainian maps are showing that it’s Russia that’s on the offensive in Kursk. I also have no idea what morale boost you’re talking about as this stunt pulled valuable troops and machinery from the collapsing front in Donbas. Here’s what CNN reported just a couple of days ago www.cnn.com/2024/09/08/europe/…/index.html

Two and half years of Russia’s grinding offensive have decimated many Ukrainian units. Reinforcements are few and far between, leaving some soldiers exhausted and demoralized. The situation is particularly dire among infantry units near Pokrovsk and elsewhere on the eastern front line, where Ukraine is struggling to stop Russia’s creeping advances.

As a battalion commander, Dima was in charge of around 800 men who fought in some of the fiercest, bloodiest battles of the war – most recently near Pokrovsk, the strategic eastern town that is now on the brink of falling to Russia.

But with most of his troops now dead or severely injured, Dima decided he’d had enough. He quit and took another job with the military – in an office in Kyiv.

Here’s what The Economist reports archive.is/KrBmX

Yury, a soldier attached to the 59th brigade based near Ukrainsk, says Ukrainian losses have been significant. A reinforcement of inexperienced infantrymen sent from Ukraine’s 71st brigade were wiped out. “Over three days, 100 became zero. Some ran, some fell.”

The Russians are still focused on control of the roads leading to Pokrovsk. “We have been fighting with our last guard, and have thrown our logistics guys into the trenches.”

“Physicist”, a tank commander with the 68th, says the Russian air force and artillery can react almost in real time; anything that moves and is not protected is destroyed. His tank drivers consequently now mostly work as static artillery units, operating from closed positions, and much farther back.

This has been a gift for Russia because now Ukrainian troops are out in the open where Ukraine is taking much heavier losses than they did while they were dug in. forbes.com/…/out-in-the-open-and-on-the-move-in-r…

This also extended the front for Ukraine complicating their logistics situation. The worst part from Ukrainian perspective is that they can’t pull troops back because it will be admitting the failure of the gambit. So, now they’re stuck feeding men and machines into a battle that has zero long term value while they lose important strategic areas around Pokrovsk.

What’s likely to happen in the near future is that Ukraine will lose Pokrovsk which is a key logistics hub through which southern forces are supplied by rail. Once that’s lost there’s no good way to move supplies or reinforcements south meaning that the group of forces there will be completely cut off. Kursk greatly accelerated this process.

antmzo220 , 37 minutes ago (edited 29 minutes ago)

The diversion is more significant than the article makes it out to be.

What diversion? Russia hasn’t had to slow down it’s advances in other regions at all, in fact in some cases Russia has made faster gains, because Ukraine diverted its own best troops…

On face value, Kursk region isn’t that important to Moscow and they’ve got the strategic points like the nuclear plant on lock. However it’s hard to deny the value of the morale boost that Ukraine desperately needed,

It’s only a morale boost to westerners observing the news as if it’s a game. It doesn’t help the real world situation for Ukraine or Ukrainians. That’s what this was for, to signal boost to the west.

The Kursk incursion does not change losses caused by poor military coordination present from Ukrainian and Russian command structures.

No, it’s an example of said poor military coordination present in the Ukrainian command structure…

bobr , 2 hours ago

Zelensky’s defenders trying to paint it as a success because, however heavy Ukraine’s losses, they are justified since Russia’s were even heavier.

The entire conflict as seen by the west described in one sentence.

“Yes we turned the country into a mass prison and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians died or got wounded - but more Russians died so it’s a success”.