Exclusive: Haniyeh killed by projectile and not a planted bomb, eyewitnesses say

philpo , 2 hours ago

There is currently no known projectile that can take out a single room in a suburban concrete building with such precision without collateral damage, even less one that cannot be detected by radar and can be delivered by a stealth aircraft. Of course there might be technology we are unaware of, but it is highly unlikely just due to the physics behind it. (And which obviously did not lead any parts behind)

But it is a huge embarrassment, even a major risk for their lives, for the Iranian security services and some of their higher ups if the story about the planted bomb is true. Because that means even very elite Republican guard units and officers are either very very bad at their job - or a Mossad asset. Both are a major risk for the political elite in Iran as both the embarrassment towards the public and especially their own allies, but also possible infighting/blamegames are a danger to the current status.

So I wonder which theory is more likely to be true: A mysterious wonder of a projectile or a political regime lying.

Don_Dickle , 4 hours ago

If this is true then why didn’t Iran or someone in Iran say an aircraft did it. I’ll wait for more news.

lemmefixdat4u , 3 hours ago

Totally agree. Iran can see incoming aircraft and missiles on their radar. There would have been widespread social media reports of the missile flying over the city. These things did not happen. Where’s the missile debris? That would have been the lead story on local TV news. Iranian leadership would love to tie the attack back to a missile provided by the US. That would have been their first claim if it really was due to a missile. This story sounds more like Iran belatedly trying to change the narrative.

Linkerbaan OP , 3 hours ago

F35s are stealth bombers and smaller drones would be harder to detect.

Of course this article is just testimonies and nothing concrete, but it is worth mentioning that the bomb plant theory is not a universal truth yet.

philpo , 1 hour ago

And this F35/drone came from where? And shot with what?

The F35 has an estimated range of 2800km without any weaponry and a realistic combat range of around 1400km.

That would mean Israel would need to use mid air refuelling or external fuel tanks (which they absolutely have for the F35) - the F35 were involved in Yemen,but the distance to Yemen is much smaller from Nevatim.

Now, there is of course the option to mid air refuelling as they did for Yemen. But: Tankers are regular airline aircraft and as such they are visible on every military and civil radar since the 40ies. And there is a lot of unfriendly airspace between the Iranian airspace and Israel - namely Syria and Iraq - but also long range radars from Iran, Türkiye, etc.would be able to pick that up. Additionally: Teheran is a long way from the only spot where Israel could do such a refuelling operation - the Persian gulf (and/or Iraq’s airspace,but that doesn’t change a thing). Even IF they somehow managed to sneak a tanker through AND pulled of an refuelling operation without anyone noticing they would need to fly the F35 to Teheran and back from international or “bribed friendly” airspace.

Which is also out of the range of a stealth F35. Sure,you can use external fuel tanks and a buddy to buddy refuelling system - but that would mean that the tanker-F35 would be non-stealth and the refuelling process IN Iranian airspace would be even less stealth.

AND the Israelis would need to follow this up with another tanker refuelling operation,now with Iranian radars in full defence mode after the strike. AND we haven’t even talked about the projectile which would need to be stealth as well AND both precise and small enough to take out only a single room and that room only. Currently there is none that we are aware of.

Tbh: Sure, in theory it could be done. But it would still rely on gross Iranian air defence incompetence, multiple not very Israel friendly neighbouring countries keeping their mouth shut AND a projectile that would have been previously unknown.

So there is a close to zero possibility that this really happened - even for Israel’s often daring missions this is beyond their means. (Besides the US would very likely stop further deliveries if Israel would risk multiple F35 over Iran for such a mission)

But of course there is a second option: The United states! Well. Of course. They absolutely have carriers in the region and in theory try such a mission - their only advantage here would be,that they don’t need the tanker air refueling part, though - the buddy refuelling would still be needed, though and is still a problem, same goes for the projectile. And the US has zero political inclination to do so because if they got caught they are in deep shit worldwide, they are already in deep shit as they likely need to defend Israel from the retaliation anyway, they also do not risk a F35 lightly AND the democrats would surely loose the election as well if this goes wrong. So basically they are extremely unlikely as well.

Now of course there are drones left. You mentioned small drones - they indeed are an option for surgical strikes like that and are used in Ukraine like that. But: These drones have a very small range as well - OR they are big and easy to see on radar. Even a household drone can be seen easily on a 70ies military radar… So they would need to have a team within close proximity as well…

So again… it’s highly unlikely.