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Is Ismail Haniyeh's assassination a setback for Israel-Hamas peace talks?

The death of Haniyeh, a significant figure in Hamas’s political and diplomatic structure, has raised serious questions about the future of ongoing ceasefire negotiations. American officials had recently indicated that these talks, mediated by Qatar, the United States, and Egypt, were close to yielding a temporary ceasefire and a potential hostage release deal.

However, the assassination has cast doubt on the feasibility of these efforts moving forward.

Archived at web.archive.org/…/is-ismail-haniyeh-assassination…

aleph ,
@aleph@lemm.ee avatar

Lol talk about a rhetorical question. Israel just assassinated the political head of Hamas. This should serve as proof that that any talk of a deal or a ceasefire over the past six months has been a sham. This means months or even years of war and thousands of more deaths, which is what Netanyahu wanted all along, while the US argues weakly in support of Israel’s “right to defend itself”.

nogooduser ,

Every week or two there’s a new ceasefire deal on the table and then Netanyahu says something to the tune of “but we’re not stopping until Hamas is gone”.

It seems that the negotiators don’t have the authority to negotiate for anything other than “you stop shooting now and we’ll stop shooting when you’re dead”.

aleph ,
@aleph@lemm.ee avatar

Pretty much. Netanyahu never wanted a ceasefire to begin with. My guess is that any talk of a path to a two-state solution or a ceasefire has just been a stalling tactic used by the US to deal with any criticism of Israel’s war crimes. I wonder how long the State Department can keep this charade going, quite honestly.

sun_is_ra ,

A slow but steady genocide seems to be the strategy

aleph , (edited )
@aleph@lemm.ee avatar

👨‍🚀🔫 Always has been.

mecfs ,

To be fair, I’d prefer they killed this guy than Gazan citizens.

“Footage from his office in the Qatari capital of Doha showed Haniyeh celebrating the Hamas-led October 7 attacks on Israel with other Hamas officials, before they prayed and praised God”

en.wikipedia.org/…/Assassination_of_Ismail_Haniye…

aleph ,
@aleph@lemm.ee avatar

This assassination is an assurance that countless more Gazan citizens are going to die. It’s not an either/or situation.

mecfs ,

I hope not. But you’re likely correct.

cygnus , (edited )
@cygnus@lemmy.ca avatar

Gee, ya think? The world is better off without Hamas, but to have Israel assassinate the leadership of a party it was negotiating with is obviously not conducive to good relations. They should have turned him over to the ICC instead. He was already wanted by the court: icc-cpi.int/…/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-k…

From the statement:

On the basis of evidence collected and examined by my Office, I have reasonable grounds to believe that Yahya SINWAR (Head of the Islamic Resistance Movement (“Hamas”) in the Gaza Strip), Mohammed Diab Ibrahim AL-MASRI, more commonly known as DEIF (Commander-in-Chief of the military wing of Hamas, known as the Al-Qassam Brigades), and Ismail HANIYEH (Head of Hamas Political Bureau) bear criminal responsibility for the following war crimes and crimes against humanity committed on the territory of Israel and the State of Palestine (in the Gaza strip) from at least 7 October 2023:

  • Extermination as a crime against humanity, contrary to article 7(1)(b) of the Rome Statute;
  • Murder as a crime against humanity, contrary to article 7(1)(a), and as a war crime, contrary to article 8(2)©(i);
  • Taking hostages as a war crime, contrary to article 8(2)©(iii);
  • Rape and other acts of sexual violence as crimes against humanity, contrary to article 7(1)(g), and also as war crimes pursuant to article 8(2)(e)(vi) in the context of captivity;
  • Torture as a crime against humanity, contrary to article 7(1)(f), and also as a war crime, contrary to article 8(2)©(i), in the context of captivity;
  • Other inhumane acts as a crime against humanity, contrary to article 7(l)(k), in the context of captivity;
  • Cruel treatment as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)©(i), in the context of captivity; and
  • Outrages upon personal dignity as a war crime, contrary to article 8(2)©(ii), in the context of captivity.
small44 ,

Once israel stop the colonization, hamas will disappear

cygnus ,
@cygnus@lemmy.ca avatar

I doubt it, unless the Muslim Brotherhood and Likud disappear along with it.

Zipitydew ,

Hamas will disappear when Iran determines they’re no longer useful

small44 ,

No amount of support from iran would save a hamas that don’t have the population support.

xmunk ,

That is a naive view - it would take a sustained period of peace to grow beyond Hamas’ current violent orientation.

small44 ,

I’m not saying it would happen in 1 day or a year if hamas refuse to drop arms like they are promising once palestine is free but without population support they can’t exist forever

xmunk ,

I agree with that - I was concerned your original statement implied it’d be a quick process but that sort of trust and stability take a while to build back up.

IchNichtenLichten ,
@IchNichtenLichten@lemmy.world avatar

Setback? If the Israeli government carries on like this they’re going to start a regional war.

Streamwave ,

Any outcome where Hamas was permitted to live after October 7th or to govern Gaza was never going to be acceptable, and Hamas was unlikely to ever concede this.

Anything less than the end of Hamas would have been a terrible outcome for all sides. They’d regroup, rearm, and in a few years’ time they’d attack again, more civilians would die, and people would start clutching their pearls and warning about ‘escalation’. And in the meantime, the Palestinians in Gaza would have had to endure their brutal rule.

Once Hamas has been sufficiently degraded, there’ll be some sort of regional coalition to rebuild Gaza with Saudi, Emirati and Kuwaiti involvement and US security guarantees, a deradicalisation process for the Palestinians there, and the construction of a civil bureaucracy. The international community will be pouring in financial assistance, except that this time it won’t be used to build hundreds of miles of terror dungeons.

The West Bank is a tougher nut to crack. But Israel will have to deal with the Hezbollah Jihadis first.

itslilith ,
@itslilith@lemmy.blahaj.zone avatar

“the West Bank is a tougher nut to crack”

what do you mean by that? Hamas has little to no influence there, and it is governed by a civilian government that was democratically elected. In fact, they’ve been trying to hold new elections, something that Israel has been blocking for years now. There is little to no violence coming from the West Bank.

Contrary to that, illegal settlements (both under Israeli and international law) are tacitly or overly supported by the Israeli government. What is needed is a full Israeli withdrawal back to the internally recognized borders and internationally supervised democratic elections. That is the only way a lasting peace can be build there.

Streamwave ,

what do you mean by that?

I mean how the occupation can end. It’s not obvious how that can happen, even though it obviously should. Go on Google Images, then search ‘topography of Israel and the West Bank’. If a nascent civilian government of Palestine falls to Hamas or similar forces then they’d be overlooking Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. They’d have a throughline to Iran via Syria-Lebanon. That’s not a risk Israel can take.

Hamas has little to no influence there

This simply isn’t correct. Hamas operates in much of the West Bank, as do allied groups like the Jenin Brigades and Lion’s Den in Nablus. They’re also enormously popular among West Bank Palestinians.

it is governed by a civilian government that was democratically elected

So democratic that the current President Abbas is currently serving the 19th year of his 4-year term.

In fact, they’ve been trying to hold new elections, something that Israel has been blocking for years now

This is misleading at best. They’re not trying to hold new elections, because every single opinion poll for about 15 years now show that Fatah would lose badly and certainly Hamas would become the new government of the West Bank, which would finally shatter the possibility of there ever being a Palestinian state. That doesn’t serve Fatah or Israel. Israel therefore keeps Fatah on life-support as the least-bad option.

There is little to no violence coming from the West Bank.

Because it’s been suppressed by Fatah in co-operation with Israeli security services who’ve been operating in the West Bank before and after October 7th.

By the way, right at this moment thousands of Palestinians in the West Bank are out marching in support of Hamas and against the killing of Ismail Hainyeh: timesofisrael.com/…/dismay-in-gaza-and-rare-open-…

steventhedev ,

what makes you think there’s little to no violence in the west bank? Are you basing that on media coverage of incidents, or on same comprehensive data source?

itslilith ,
@itslilith@lemmy.blahaj.zone avatar

not saying there is no violence at all, but there were only about 40 Israeli fatalities in and around the West Bank in all of 2023, as opposed to close to 500 Palestinians killed in the same time span:

ochaopt.org/…/WB_info-graphic_15_Dec_2023.pdf

That is despite the fact that Israeli Settlers are routinely and violently displacing Palestinian people in these territories and resentment against Israel is higher than it has been in a long time. Considering that only a few hours away, their perceived national brethren are involved in an active war against Israel, that number is staggeringly low, and would likely be even lower if Israel kept its illegal settlements in check.

The overwhelming majority of violence in the West Bank is committed against Palestinians, not by them.

Suspiciousbrowsing ,

You don't think by perhaps, oh I don't know commiting genocide and killing thousands of innocent people this will just infact coerce another generation of Hamas recruits ?

small44 , (edited )

Why would you trust the country that give uncondtional support to israel and it’s allies to gouvern gaza. Gaza would become like the west bank where the settlers would rules

Streamwave ,

Why would you trust the country that give uncondtional support to israel and it’s allies to gouvern gaza.

Israel has no interest in governing Gaza. It wants to maintain security measures but that’s it.

The actual governing would be done by non-radicalised Palestinians alongside the Saudis, Emiratis and Kuwaitis, presumably some sort of council being formed and administration constructed from what remains of the civilian infrastructure of Hamas.

small44 ,

Israel realized that it’s better to control gaza from the outside with the blockade

Streamwave ,

The blockade was instituted in response to the Gazans electing Hamas in free and fair, internationally monitored democratic elections, and then beginning to fire rockets at Israel, to try and reduce their ability to import weapons or components which could be used to create weapons.

There didn’t even used to be a wall. Before Hamas, you could just drive from Tel Aviv to the beaches of Gaza and back with no checkpoints.

A lot of Palestinians miss those days. I’m pretty sure most Israelis do, too.

small44 ,

Gaza has restrictions from israel since 1967. The more tight restrictions get, the more hate there will be feom the affected people.

Streamwave ,

Gaza has restrictions from israel since 1967

Sure. So what? For the next 10 years it averaged nearly 10% GDP growth per year.

The more tight restrictions get, the more hate there will be feom the affected people.

I think this rests on a fundamental misunderstanding of the conditions in Gaza pre-October 7th.

Gaza was pretty wealthy. The average income exceeded that of their neighbouring Egyptians. Yes there were difficulties importing some goods or products, but it was rarely impossible for consumer goods. Plus, in the end, they (as we now know) had miles of smuggling tunnels.

That’s one reason why Egypt started squealing when Israel began to move into Rafah. There were minimal civilian casualties, but the IDF discovered the vast tunnels, some big enough to move a tank through, between Rafah and Egypt.

The idea that everyone was sort of sitting around in tents and mud is nonsense.

They also received billions of dollars in international aid, which Hamas of course simply spent building weapons and terror dungeons. But many Gazans went to work in Israel, many went to university abroad, built decent lives. All undone because of Hamas, tragically.

Watch this tourism video by a Gazan from 2019. Does this look like a Warsaw Ghetto to you?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBo7i-TXy6s

Yes times could be tough. But times are often tough all around the world. Ask the Sudanese or the Ethiopians. They’ve got average incomes multiple times lower than the Gazans did. They didn’t launch genocidal wars or broadcast TV shows for children calling for beheading al-Yahud.

xmunk ,

It is notoriously hard to find non-radicalized folks after repeatedly dropping bombs on their homes.

If that was genuinely Isreal’s aim they would be limiting their intervention to targeted strikes or utilizing the Palestinian social apparatus to try and secure custody of the most extreme Hamas members… they’d also be rabidly going after any Isreali settlers threatening the peace process.

Genuinely trying to build a better civilian government (which is something I’m absolutely supportive of) looks a lot different than what we’ve been seeing.

IMO Netanyahu and most of his party don’t really care if Palestinians live or die - they just want to make Gaza so inhospitable that they all flee as refugees so that Isreal can freely claim the land. With some very notable exceptions I think the preference is that no Palestinians die so that it doesn’t look as bad on the international stage… though a few fucks literally want blood.

Streamwave ,

It is notoriously hard to find non-radicalized folks after repeatedly dropping bombs on their homes.

Sure. It was hard after WW2 with Germany and Japan. America literally nuked two Japanese cities, more or less wiping them from the map, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians, many orders of times greater than have been killed in this defensive war by Israel.

But we managed to do it.

We did in fact succeed in both countries in deradicalising them and now they’re both thriving democracies.

If that was genuinely Isreal’s aim they would be limiting their intervention to targeted strikes or utilizing the Palestinian social apparatus to try and secure custody of the most extreme Hamas members… they’d also be rabidly going after any Isreali settlers threatening the peace process.

This would only be true if you had literally zero clue about the extent of Hamas’ physical embeddedness within the infrastructure of Gaza. They’ve had 17 years to turn the entire strip into a deathtrap. Particularly easy to do that when they don’t care about Palestinian civilians. They’re all just ‘martyrs’, as Haniyeh agreed.

Does Israel want a Palestinian state? No, not really. Especially not after October 7th. But it was willing to go along with that in the 1990s after the First Intifada made its point with dignity. In December 2000, they accepted President Clinton’s offer to the Palestinians of a two-state solution, with a Palestinian state with a capital in East Jerusalem, some minor landswaps for the largest WB settlements, Palestinian airspace sovereignty, shared custody over the Temple Mount, etc.

The response was that Arafat walked away and launched the Second Intifada, a multi-year onslaught of wave after wave of suicide bombers, mass shootings, driving vehicles into crowds, bombing restaurants, and slaughtering schoolchildren. The Palestinians also had the distinction of inventing an entirely unprecedented form of terrorism: they pioneered the use of children as suicide bombers.

The Israeli left, which had pinned its colours to the ‘land for peace’ strategy which had worked with Egypt (Sinai) and Jordan, has never recovered from the Palestinian Second Intifada. The Intifada only ended when Israel created the walls and security checkpoints across and around the West Bank, the same thing which Palestinians today so hate. Well, guess what, maybe you should have made better choices…

So does Israel today want a Palestinian state? No. Why would they? They offered one in 2000 and got wave after wave of suicide bombers. They pulled out of Gaza unilaterally in 2005 and gave the Palestinians a democratic election. They elected Hamas, which culminated in October 7th, the single worst slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust. You’ve got the West Bank where the PA and UNRWA teach children how to count and do geometry by talking about firing rockets at Tel Aviv.

In a future scenario where the Palestinians were willing to live in peace next to Israel? Many Israelis would still say yes. But nobody in Israel thinks that’s ever going to be the actual scenario, and if they did then October 7th more or less decided that one for them.

TheOctonaut ,

Yeah it’ll all blow over eventually once “Hamas” is gone.

If you’re from the UK I’m guessing you’re under 30 right?

Britain’s cycle of exterminating Irish nationalists every generation and being surprised when the next generation hates you too would be familiar otherwise.

Streamwave ,

Well, no, not overnight. There’d need to be a denazification process similar to what took place in Germany and Japan after the Second World War. The only people who know how to do that with a Muslim population are the Saudis and Emiratis, who succeeded in deradicalising their own populations in the decades following 9/11.

They’d play a central role in managing the civil administration of Gaza while that was given time to show fruits. It would obviously be far too early for any sort of democracy in Gaza, but it’s a goal to strive towards in the long term.

TheOctonaut ,

Please understand you live in a different reality to the rest of us, one where “Emiratis” had spent 70 years have their land and lives stolen before being “denazified”, one where Saudi Arabia is a model to aspire to and definitely don’t use violence to pursue their aims, one where Palestinians were somehow radicalised by anything other than the actions of Israel and Zionism.

Streamwave ,

Sure, I’m aware that I’m better informed on this than most people are who just rely on ambient vibes and prejudices. I’m not challenging that.

Neither the Gazans nor the Arabs of Palestinians have spent 70 years having their land and lives stolen. This sort of superficial analysis is commonplace in the West but bears no relation to the historical reality of the conditions under which the State of Israel came into existence.

The best account, drawing especially on the work of Benny Morris and more recent scholars, was given in a lecture by political analyst Haviv Rettig Gur here.

ModernRisk , (edited )
@ModernRisk@lemmy.dbzer0.com avatar

Your account is about 8 hours day old (from when I made this comment), so I kind of just assume you’re trying to troll or rage-bait.

Any outcome where Hamas was permitted to live after October 7th or to govern Gaza was never going to be acceptable, and Hamas was unlikely to ever concede this.

7th October happens when you steal land and displace 750 000 people, murder along the way, create a apartheid state and humiliate a entire race. Hamas is a creation out of Israel’s actions. Israel is the core reason as to why there’s so much hatred and death.

Anything less than the end of Hamas would have been a terrible outcome for all sides. They’d regroup, rearm, and in a few years’ time they’d attack again, more civilians would die, and people would start clutching their pearls and warning about ‘escalation’. And in the meantime, the Palestinians in Gaza would have had to endure their brutal rule.

So you’re fine with Israel literally murdering, stealing land and humiliating Palestinian people. Apparently. However when these people literally fight back, it is suddenly wrong in your eyes.

Once Hamas has been sufficiently degraded, there’ll be some sort of regional coalition to rebuild Gaza with Saudi, Emirati and Kuwaiti involvement and US security guarantees, a deradicalisation process for the Palestinians there, and the construction of a civil bureaucracy. The international community will be pouring in financial assistance, except that this time it won’t be used to build hundreds of miles of terror dungeons.

Not true. Israel will never allow it. Their PM proudly boosted that he’s proud of not allowing a Palestinian state.

The West Bank is a tougher nut to crack. But Israel will have to deal with the Hezbollah Jihadis first.

You’ve proven to be an immensely Israel supporter and Zionist. You purposefully overlook Israel’s hateful behavior.

Since you’re a Zionist, I will finish this comment with a list of sources of Israel’s action and then block you. I don’t want to read zionists stuff, I know you can still comment but that won’t be my problem.

  1. Strapped down, blindfolded, held in diapers: Israeli whistleblowers detail abuse of Palestinians in shadowy detention center.

  2. Death toll in Israeli attack on displaced Palestinians in Rafah rises to 45.

  3. Israeli forces’ systemic denial of fair trial rights to Palestinian child prisoners amounts to arbitrary detention.

  4. Israel prevents hundreds of worshippers from entering Al-Aqsa on first night of Ramadan.

  5. Israel’s PM Netanyahu ‘proud’ of preventing establishment of a Palestinian state.

  6. Far-right minister says nuking Gaza an option, PM suspends him from cabinet meetings.

  7. Israel Defense Minister Calls Palestinians ‘Human Animals’ Amid Israeli Aggression.

  8. Video shows Israeli settler trying to take over Palestinian house.

  9. Hamas official says group would lay down its arms if an independent Palestinian state is established

part 1

part 2

EDIT: Voyager app seems to mess up my links, will fix it tomorrow when being on PC.

Streamwave ,

OK

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