(…) number of violent crimes per year divided by the population equals 1% (…)
Yearly Crime Rates per 100,000 people
Violent crime, total :
1 Missouri St. Louis 2,082.29 (2.08%)
2 Michigan Detroit 2,056.67
3 Maryland Baltimore 2,027.01
…
17 Illinois Chicago 1,098.86 (1.1%)
if those crimes were spread most equality (nobody is victim of 2 crimes) then, after 30 years in a 1.5% City you have accumulated 45% chances of being a victim.