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Generative AI is reportedly tripling carbon dioxide emissions from data centers

cross-posted from: lemmy.ml/post/20289663

A report from Morgan Stanley suggests the datacenter industry is on track to emit 2.5 billion tons by 2030, which is three times higher than the predictions if generative AI had not come into play.

The extra demand from GenAI will reportedly lead to a rise in emissions from 200 million tons this year to 600 million tons by 2030, thanks largely to the construction of more data centers to keep up with the demand for cloud services.

Ragdoll_X ,
@Ragdoll_X@lemmy.world avatar

I remember when scientists were more focused on making AI models smaller and more efficient, and research on generative models was focused on making GANs as robust as possible with very little compute and data.

Now that big companies and rich investors saw the potential for profit in AI the paradigm has shifted to “throw more compute at the wall until something sticks”, so it’s not surprising it’s affecting carbon emissions.

Besides that it’s also annoying that most of the time they keep their AIs behind closed doors, and even in the few cases where the weights are released publicly these models are so big that they aren’t usable for the vast majority of people, as sometimes even Kaggle can’t handle them.

Kyrgizion ,

Between AI and shitcoin mining, these two “technology branches” already consume more power than all the green power added to the grid combined.

It’s why humans will always remain de facto slaves to a few masters. Anything that could potentially be advantageous to all life on Earth? Only if the ones at the top get to profit first. No profit? Enjoy scorching to death on hell-planet for the next forty years!

Sanctus ,
@Sanctus@lemmy.world avatar

I dont think much will remain after this extinction event. Do you know how long it takes niches to refill in an ecosystem? We’re going to get to a point where industry collapses and we are reset if we survive at all.

Kyrgizion ,

We wouldn’t even be able to restart. All the easily available resources have been delved. Three thousand years ago people could scoop pure gold from rivers by the kilos. Today, all decent deposits lie kilometers below the surface.

But it’ll be for the best. We had our shot and blew it.

Sanctus ,
@Sanctus@lemmy.world avatar

Maybe resources will be scarce enough that we are forced to try something other than capitalism, as we have to share to make it anywhere. Or maybe it will just make all resources needed for advanced technologies unavaible. Then we can fight over whose hut is closest to the last river.

Tenniswaffles ,

Resources like gold would be more accessible, y’know because it already been mined and made into things. If society collapses what few survivors there are could recycle shit like metals. The actual issue is fossil fuels. Getting to a point where you can use renewable power would be difficult with using fossil fuels for power first.

zaphod ,

Between AI and shitcoin mining, these two “technology branches” already consume more power than all the green power added to the grid combined.

And your sources? I only did a cursory search, and according to the IEA data centers are responsible for somewhere in the range of 2-6% of electricity demand. Renewables are currently around 30% globally.

Source: www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2024

todd_bonzalez ,
@todd_bonzalez@lemm.ee avatar

Between AI and shitcoin mining, these two “technology branches” already consume more power than all the green power added to the grid combined.

I think you would be shocked if you learned what some other things in our world cost in CO2.

The energy costs of cryptocurrency mining are easy to calculate because the system is extremely transparent. AI is a little muddier, but we know how much big tech is expanding data centers, and we know how many enterprise GPUs Nvidia sells, so we get a decent estimate.

But these things don’t actually do as much damage as compared to other things. Imagine how much energy is used for Gaming PCs and consoles. It’s probably up there with Crypto and AI if you consider all running consoles and PCs, plus all the multiplayer infrastructure. But we don’t have numbers because this is hard to calculate.

And then there’s stuff like personal automobiles, that completely blow these other things out-of-the-water.

ampersandcastles ,

AI and crypto would be fine if we didn’t have to put up with capitalism.

Teknikal ,
@Teknikal@eviltoast.org avatar

It’s a nice gimmick and sometimes fun but probably not worth it given the state of the planet already.

credo ,

Which search engines give results without an AI generated response?

noodlejetski ,

Startpage and DuckDuckGo, but you might want to disable summaries in the latter’s settings.

gedaliyah ,
@gedaliyah@lemmy.world avatar

Look, i’m not saying that this isn’t a problem. My only question is, is this one of those “global warming is because people don’t recycle their soda bottles” things? In other words, How concerned should I be about this vs, taking attention away from the energy, beef, and transportation industry?

RustyShackleford ,

Very concerned. It’s currently a race who can speed run us to extinction first.

todd_bonzalez ,
@todd_bonzalez@lemm.ee avatar

So you’re saying that we should be concerned with datacenters more than things like factory farming and oil & gas?

I don’t follow. I need a lot more evidence of harm before I become “very concerned” about datacenters specifically.

catloaf ,

I don’t think this is something to focus on. Tech being 40% of all emissions in the US is suspicious, given that in 2021, all industry was 30.1%, and all transportation was 28.5%. And the total emissions in the US was 6.3 billion tons. www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/…/chart-detail/?ch…

I don’t have more recent data (if it’s in the article, I didn’t see it at a skim) but I feel like oil, gas, and agriculture are the bigger long-term targets.

ElderReflections ,
@ElderReflections@fedia.io avatar

Looks like Techradar misunderstood parts of the source story.
The projected emissions over the next 10 years is equal to 40% of all US emissions.
The Register

rhys ,

That El Reg links breaks this report much better than some other reporting. It projects a tripling of carbon emissions from bit barns by 2030, with 40% of that increase being due to construction and materials fabrication and 60% from their operation.

mrvictory1 ,

Call me surprised.

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