There’s an episode of Voyager where Seven of Nine goes down conspiracy rabbit holes that’s a lot like that.
Basically, the first one turns out to be correct (although very minor), but it fuels more and more absurd theories. Essentially she goes into a feedback loop, over- and mis-analyzing everything until she’s convinced that every encounter she’s had with anyone has been part of a conspiracy against her.
So maybe “crackpot” was a bit harsh, at least in some cases.