If everyone knows that home prices will rise, they will rise right now instead of later. After all, why sell a house at $300k if “everyone knows” its going to be worth $350k in a few months?
Mortgage rates continue to increase. We’re at 7.23% mortgages, the highest in multiple decades, and this high level of mortgages leads to a very very much higher rate in monthly payments. That is to say: even without houses going up in prices, people are already paying a $thousand+ extra dollars per month compared to a few years ago when 3% mortgages were the norm.
The cited reason, dearth of inventory of homes for sale. People aren’t selling because they can’t afford to move (!!!). That’s the problem. Naturally, the people moving right now are just the rich people who can afford to move, and therefore they’re willing to spend a bit more $$ to buy lower-quality homes (and simultaneously, pay a higher % interest rate or even entirely-cash to avoid the monthly bills).
IMO, its more likely that we run out of buyers (people who can afford such high valued, overpriced homes) rather than we run out of sellers.