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some_guy , 3 hours ago The COVID-19 inflation shock was initially seen as a sign of overheating, with many viewing the Federal Reserve as dangerously behind the curve. But given unprecedented supply chain disruptions, it is increasingly consensus that pandemic-era inflation was largely supply-driven. Firms’ margins have only begun to normalize, underscoring the long-lasting effects of COVID-19 disruptions. We expect inflation will keep falling, given the importance of lagged disinflation effects from supply normalization.
The COVID-19 inflation shock was initially seen as a sign of overheating, with many viewing the Federal Reserve as dangerously behind the curve.
But given unprecedented supply chain disruptions, it is increasingly consensus that pandemic-era inflation was largely supply-driven.
Firms’ margins have only begun to normalize, underscoring the long-lasting effects of COVID-19 disruptions.
We expect inflation will keep falling, given the importance of lagged disinflation effects from supply normalization.