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Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost

Donald Trump has not received a poll boost in the first presidential election survey conducted since the failed assassination attempt on Saturday.

The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point on 46 percent, compared to the president’s 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- two percentage points.

cley_faye ,

Well, his “followers” where already convinced to vote for him, and he’s so far out that people that did not follow him already actually have enough brain to not equate “assassination attempt” with “he’s a hero”, so there’s that.

DudeImMacGyver ,
@DudeImMacGyver@sh.itjust.works avatar

Yeah, he’s kinda capped out on support. That shouldn’t be too surprising.

Bluefalcon ,

I feel with Vance getting the VP pick and the Trump run RNC, that Republicans believe they have the numbers. They are doing nothing to get swing voters and I’m glad to see that.

xantoxis ,

They trust polls way, way too much.

Furbag ,

Andrew Yang sent out an email the other day that I partially agree with. The JD Vance pick is a bold signal that Trump thinks he’s already won. He could have picked Doug Bergum, Glenn Youngkin, Nikki Haley, or Marco Rubio and any of them would have brought something to the table that could potentially shore up Trump’s weaknesses in the upcoming election and reassured moderates, corporate donors, and minority groups that Trump had their best interests at heart. But instead he picked a junior senator with no legislative accomplishments, no real connections to business or Washington politicians, and no household name recognition, and only redeeming quality is that he has a law degree from Yale.

I would say it’s almost certain that he got picked because he made a statement that if he were the VP during Trump’s first term, he would not have certified the 2020 election results. Yikes.

I’m not surprised that Trump is packing his cabinet with dyed-in-the-wool loyalists. Part of the reason a lot of his plots failed in his first term is because career politicians refused to break the law at his behest. I don’t really see this backfiring for him since the VP pick is secondary to Trump’s own cult of personality. It’s not a strong VP pick, but it didn’t really matter who he picked. He could have picked Donald Trump Jr. to be his running mate and MAGA would have gone along with it.

Bluefalcon ,

So JD Vance has major ties to the tech industry. His book Hillbilly Elegy opened doors for him to be friends with Peter Thiel. Trump believes Vance will bring in the donors.

Vance was a “never Trumper”. If put in the same position as Pence, he will roll on Trump. Vance wants a career and being die hard Trump will not accomplish it long term.

breadsmasher ,
@breadsmasher@lemmy.world avatar

aww did lil babby need a plaster for his lil oopsie?

ThePantser ,
@ThePantser@lemmy.world avatar

I’m surprised it’s not a maga bandaid

kevlar21 ,

Maybe gold or something

kmartburrito ,

Definitely made in China

queermunist ,
@queermunist@lemmy.ml avatar

I’m surprised he didn’t show up in a fully body cast to maximize his play for sympathy.

Leviathan ,

I just never saw why he would. The people voting for him are cultists. The people against him have already been disgusted by him in one way or another, I just can’t imagine how getting grazed would change their minds.

MyOpinion ,

I just hope he gets the post-shooting boot. Let him go back to making terrible shows and not running our country.

Deceptichum ,
@Deceptichum@quokk.au avatar

No?

Let him go to gaol for his crimes and trying to coup your country.

Badeendje ,
@Badeendje@lemmy.world avatar

With criminal trial at least in courtrooms and with lawyers bleeding him dry for the foreseeable future

mostNONheinous ,

He doesn’t pay his lawyers, his cult does, and if they don’t, he won’t anyway.

Badeendje ,
@Badeendje@lemmy.world avatar

Fair enough.

demizerone ,

This mother f’er has to be the luckiest human to ever live.

Tire ,

They way things work these days the shooting will be forgotten in 2 weeks.

derpgon ,

It’s been 2 days and I already stopped seeing posts about it.

frankgrimeszz ,

Polls don’t account for the Grey Death that will arise from the nursing homes to vote when the time comes. Nor does it account for the younger generations who argue about politics online but won’t bother actually voting.

Zorsith ,
@Zorsith@lemmy.blahaj.zone avatar

Edit: replied to wrong comment

It’s depressing how many of the elderly turn out that way.

tmpod ,
@tmpod@lemmy.pt avatar

Isn’t 2k voters a comically small sample to draw any results from? I hope it is true, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

RunawayFixer ,

Not really, 2k is enough to have a result with a pretty low error %. Some example numbers: surveymonkey.com/…/how-many-people-do-i-need-to-t…

That is for “1 population” though, I don’t know if the divided USA public opinion still counts as 1 population. I’m not a polling scientist, I just know that you don’t need a massive amount of data points to draw statistically sound conclusions. Try tossing a coin and see how fast it stabilizes towards 50/50, that one really surprised me the first time I did it.

tmpod ,
@tmpod@lemmy.pt avatar

Not really, 2k is enough to have a result with a pretty low error %.

You’re totally right, my statistics is very rusty, good lord. For the ~240M eligible voters in the US, you can get roughly 2% margin of error, for the usual 95% confidence level.

My comment was a bit daft, in retrospective. Surely the polling people know what they’re doing, better than I do for sure x)
I guess it goes to show how non intuitive some statistical methods can be at first?

nexguy ,
@nexguy@lemmy.world avatar

I think 2k is a bit larger than the average polls I’ve seen which are 400 to 1500 usually.

CaptainSpaceman ,

1000 is a solid sample size to start with, doubling that is better. But ultimately polls are flawed in the designers bias. How they frame questions matters and creates biases.

zbyte64 ,

Still, if the poll is asking the same question over time, then you can track trends over time.

card797 ,

See 2020. The same result is quite likely. I don’t care what any new organization or poll says. Don’t care.

TokenBoomer ,

In 2020 the incumbent lost, uh-oh /s

RagingSnarkasm ,

The only thing missing from that picture is him holding the chain attached to Slave Leia.

jj4211 ,

I’d say it’s unlikely to change minds, but it could cause people to be even more forceful in their support and more likely to vote.

verdantbanana ,
@verdantbanana@lemmy.world avatar

if Republicans win they do what they want and if Democrats win they let the Republicans do what they want

no matter what the outcome of the election is we will certainly be left with an elderly far right out of touch Christian who wants more police funding, less worker’s rights with stagnated wages, less bodily autonomy, more state’s rights, restrictive immigration policies, less education funding, more tax breaks for mega corporations

AllNewTypeFace ,
@AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space avatar

If the lesser evil wins, you get to protest and put pressure on the government to improve things. If the greater evil does, you end up in the prison system if you try that.

A vote is not a love letter, it is a bus ticket.

verdantbanana ,
@verdantbanana@lemmy.world avatar

which one is the lesser evil?

under their leadership prices on everyday items has skyrocketed, pay has stagnated and has lowered compared to start pay during the covid pandemic, there is no universal healthcare, we have less rights today than eight years ago (shocked we still have marriage equality at least for now)

both are Christian and our loss of rights to bodily autonomy over their two presidential terms drives the point home

both candidates supported the takeover of mega corporate tobacco taking over nicotine harm reduction

cannabis regulation in the same form as we currently treat vaped nicotine is supported by both candidates leading to more iffy products and more criminals for the mega corporate prison complexes

Biden’s crime bills from his time as a politician are still causing harm in people’s lives today so how does picking a prosecutor for his running mate show any change or any difference in these policies or his thinking versus Trump?

so which candidate was it that supports us the citizens? hard to tell the two apart

A vote is not a love letter, it is a bus ticket.

if there is truth in this statement why not throw support behind a third party? with enough votes even with a low number eventually a third party would have to be recognized the same as the other two with access to the national debate stage

Burstar ,
@Burstar@lemmy.dbzer0.com avatar

Your vote is more than just consent for that party to enact their agenda. It is the strongest, if not the only, way to message both parties what you want government to do that they really listen too. Vote blue repeatedly and the Dems platform moves to the left as will the Reps eventually. Enough people vote blue consistently over time and the Reps would support healthcare reform etc…

Don’t vote and you get ignored. Period.

queermunist ,
@queermunist@lemmy.ml avatar

You’re right

That’s why I won’t use my vote to tell the government I support genocide.

I’ll vote downticket for Dems because I somewhat agree with them domestically, but they’re just as bad on foreign policy so I’m writing in Aaron Bushnell for President.

JimmyBigSausage ,

“I don’t like people that get shot at.”

mctoasterson ,

There are a number of conflicting polls but realize that they can’t account for things like “enthusiasm gap” which definitely cuts in Trump’s favor at the moment. That said, the newscycles have been so insane lately, who knows what the next 10 inflection points before the election will bring.

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