I don’t think Harris guarantees a Trump win, even if she’s clearly a riskier pick than a more popular Democrat. And I don’t think she is a good pick. I feel like either party could win simply by putting up a younger and more competent candidate, but their internal politics prevented that. Harris, for all her focus-group flip-flops and questionable past, would be able to respond directly and forcefully to Trump while conveying a capability to do the job. For all the bad vibes Biden put off with his oldness and feebleness last night, in my opinion not effectively attacking Trump was the real loss.
And to be clear, I think she’s a terrible choice. She was a terrible choice when she was picked for VP and they’ve done nothing in four years to groom her as a successor, but I think the race is still tight and there’s so much potential for gain simply not being 80 that her risks don’t put us in a worse place. We’d be better with someone else, but I’m not sure the cost of passing over the black female VP when there’s no other clear leader to coronate would be worth what will already be a chaotic decision.