2016 was an outlier, not the new normal. What about 2020, when Biden defeated Trump? How many people will switch from Biden to Trump? Compare that with the Hailey voters who tell pollsters their prepared to do the opposite. How many people who turned 18 since 2020 are going to vote for Trump? Compare that to the number of Trump voters who died since 2020.
Trump won in 2016 by motivating people who never voted before to turn out. Compare that to the “excitement” and novelty of his current campaign.
The national and state Republican committees are under Trump control. But they’re also broke. The big Republican pockets don’t want to donate to a party that actively attacks and excludes them as “establishment” just so that their money can pay Trump’s legal bills. There are real questions about how much of a campaign the RNC can run for Trump, much less down-ballot people.