Democrats can’t figure it out. They vote mostly on policies and when their team does something so dispicible they cannot in good conscious vote for them, they don’t. The other side however is not voting on morals, but the exact opposite. They are trying to get their team to win just to spite the others and maybe a single issue they care about.
There are many Democrats (and yes I’m ignoring all 3rd party and “independent” because that’s a lie in the USA) who at this point dislike many of the things that the government has done under the Biden term and are on the spite train. Remember it’s only a few hundred people in some places that matter in the election. The larger swings were a few thousand. You could fit every single difference vote that determines the outcome of the election in a sports stadium. And half the seats would still be empty. You don’t need many people to stay F Biden and not vote or vote against for Cheeto to win.
Democrats love to be hopeful. But hope and feels doesn’t win an election after 2008 when it got blacks onboard in 2008. That’s sort of a one time dealio as noticed in 2012 when the vote just disappeared. A woman candidate, Asian, or whatever other minority will also get some hopefy feely votes out. A decrepit old white man that eats ice cream does not.